Originally Posted by DeGaulle 2.0

No, you are wrong here. Someone who says they are "Northern Irish" is not going to vote to abolish Northern Ireland. They may vote for nationalist parties but they are very unlikely to vote for re-unification in a referendum.

I live here and know plenty of people who casually say they are Northern Irish, it's simply a consequence of partition. These people are Irish, they go to GAA, support the Irish football team, the tricolour is their flag, their kids do Irish dancing etc etc, I would not be counting on them to vote for British rule when the conditions are right, trust me on that one.

Originally Posted by InsideImDancing

I live here and know plenty of people who casually say they are Northern Irish, it's simply a consequence of partition. These people are Irish, they go to GAA, support the Irish football team, the tricolour is their flag, their kids do Irish dancing etc etc, I would not be counting on them to vote for British rule when the conditions are right, trust me on that one.

That's the thing - when will the conditions ever be right? Do you think they would vote for unity tomorrow, given the Republic's situation?

We're at a time in history when the political and economic world is changing rapidly. It's impossible to predict where the next decade will bring us and what changes may occur on these Islands. The economic crisis and the "let them eat cake" mentality of the two and a half party system will propel SF into a position of power south of the border over the next two election cycles. Demographics up north suggest that they may well become the senior party in the Northern Ireland assembly.

So they'll be in a position on both sides of the border to gradually dismantle the border, brick by brick as it were to a point where it'll be largely irrelevant. The British Government's economic position and its political intentions will play a large part in whether this will lead to a United Ireland or not. They can nudge the North gradually towards a UI or they can dig their heels in and make it more difficult.

The position of Scotland in the UK, the decline of North Sea oil revenues, the possibility that the City Of London will lose its prominence in the World of International Finance. Then there's the possibility of the UK dropping out of the EU, or the effects of almost certain 2nd tier status for the UK within the EU if the USE project comes to fruition.

On the flip side of that, there's the possibility of the EZ breaking up and us adopting sterling or being shoved into sterling as a tidying up exercise on the part of the International financial powers.

Anyway you look at it the elimination of the border in some way is on the cards over the next few decades. What will emerge will be a regional assembly like the current one which will be part of either a Federal UI or under joint authority between London and Dublin.

The price the British would look for in letting NI go if it was on the cards, would be a military pact between the Islands. The Treaty Ports II, but this time it'd be about joint operations and cooperation.

Fascinating to see how the anti-Republicans always try to reinforce the sectarian divisions. Why is that? We have reached a unique moment in our history where the majority on the island see how utterly manipulative and repressive those sectarian labels were and to discuss politics in those terms is becoming increasingly irrelevant. But carry on if it serves your purpose.

Originally Posted by Shqiptar

I say let's just keep on building cross-border relationships, let's work together, see where we can pool resources where it makes sense to do so. Money will be scarce on both sides of the border for a long while to come.

I would agree with that, credit where its due...

Originally Posted by Eoin Coir

People dont give a damn about 4th.green field anymore

Free Staters never cared about the six counties and the Irish natives within.

Originally Posted by Shqiptar

Someone who regards themselves as Irish is more likely to look favourably on working with those who also regard themselves as Irish. If that declines by 90%, you're not even going to have the foundations for building the sort of cross-border relationships needed for working towards a UI.

I don't think the 30 year campaign of violence was needed to bring about the sort of advances you refer to. Also, just because the SFers are discussing a United Ireland doesn't mean it's a live issue.

i think you may be reading too much into the fact that a relatively small minority of Protestants regarded themselves as ‘Irish’ in 1968 (80% did not).
not too sure what that meant – possibly some of them hankered back to the old days & still regarded Ireland as one of the ‘Home Countries’ - if you go back to the time of the Act of Union, it was the most bitter sectarian Protestants who were most against the Act !
in any event Terence O’Neill’s very modest initiative preceded the ’30 year IRA campaign’ & you know the reaction it generated.
it’s also a fact that the 26 County State loomed larger for Unionists from the ‘70s onwards, & the northern Protestants sure didn’t want to be associated with that state – wouldn’t blame them for that.
indeed most 26 County politicians & the media regard the 26 Counties as ‘Ireland’ – the implication being that neither the Six County Protestants or Catholics are Irish !!

in any event, the happy reality is that there is far more ‘working together’ between the Nationalist & Unionist politicians in the Six Counties today than there ever was, & more North/South cooperation,
& as you correctly state that is essential “for working towards a UI.”

again – the happy reality is that the Nationalists of the 6 Counties have achieved ‘parity of esteem’ with the Unionists in most respects – a parity that wasn’t handed to them on a plate, & a parity that they surely hadn’t in 1968.

Originally Posted by Keith-M

A Federal Republic of the Isles could allow both parts of the island of Ireland to come together and govern themselves as the people of Scotland do today.

A UI as part of the UK? I am of the opinion that a good compromise leaves both sides equally unsatisfied. In that case your solution is a great idea.

Plebian: Your thesis is based on SF in a position of power in the the south and dismantle NI brick by brick. NI is part of the UKNI and while stealth may make the border irrelevant any change in the constitutional position will require consent. The guy who started this post posits the notion that SF/IRA have made that consent less likely. On the other hand other posters posit the idea (not a new one) that the nationalists can outvote the unionists. It is not the brits who dont want a UI it's the Unionists. The Brits would be shut of it in the morning with the consent of the people of Ireland, both north AND south. It is my thesis that such a solution would just reverse the present position. Instead of discontented nationalist we would have a discontented unionist population. New "fig leaf" structures of government would not silence the unionists who want to be unionists.

Originally Posted by tokkie

But FF, FG and Labour don't alienate the Unionist and Loyalist community in NI in the same manner that SF do. That is his point.

neither do the DUP, UUP or the TUV !!!