How many seats will Sinn Féin win?

[bobbysands81]

Just had a quick look through the first few pages of both the "Sinn Féin" and the "Elections" forums to see was there a thread on this already... and I couldn't see one so apologies if this has already been done.

How many seats will SF win?

Personally I think 10 would be the minimum and anything less would be a disappointment.

They will hold all five they currently have and I think they will add the following T.D.'s:

Mary Lou
Dessie Ellis
Padraig MacLochlann
Pearse Doherty; and
Larry O'Toole.

With a bit of luck they could easily add Sean McManus, Joanne Spain and Joe Reilly and with a lot of luck they could get one from Jonathan O'Brien, David Cullinane, John Dwyer, Brian Stanley.

Are there any other constituencies that they might sneak one in on a good day?

How many seats do you think they'll get???

[Gerrry]

Just had a quick look through the first few pages of both the "Sinn Féin" and the "Elections" forums to see was there a thread on this already... and I couldn't see one so apologies if this has already been done.

How many seats will SF win?

Personally I think 10 would be the minimum and anything less would be a disappointment.

They will hold all five they currently have and I think they will add the following T.D.'s:

Mary Lou
Dessie Ellis
Padraig MacLochlann
Pearse Doherty; and
Larry O'Toole.

With a bit of luck they could easily add Sean McManus, Joanne Spain and Joe Reilly and with a lot of luck they could get one from Jonathan O'Brien, David Cullinane, John Dwyer, Brian Stanley.

Are there any other constituencies that they might sneak one in on a good day?

How many seats do you think they'll get???

Would agree with you on the ten figure.

Possibly one or two more if SF have a very good day.

But I think Cullinane and Dwyer are more likely to take seats before Sean Mac or Joe Reilly ( though they both have an outside chance)

[bobbysands81]

Not according to Paddy Power's odds mate!

Maybe you have a bit of local knowledge though.

[Trefor]

Doolin, Dublin South East, Murray Mayo & McLellan Cork East are possibilities - but it would have to be an excellent day for SF for any of those to come off.

[RetiredProvo]

Just had a quick look through the first few pages of both the "Sinn Féin" and the "Elections" forums to see was there a thread on this already... and I couldn't see one so apologies if this has already been done.

Apology accepted but you posted less than a fortnight ago on similar titled topic. :wink:

http://www.politics.ie/viewtopic.php...r=asc&start=96

How many seats will SF win?

Personally I think 10 would be the minimum and anything less would be a disappointment.

They will hold all five they currently have and I think they will add the following T.D.'s:

Mary Lou
Dessie Ellis
Padraig MacLochlann
Pearse Doherty; and
Larry O'Toole.

With a bit of luck they could easily add Sean McManus, Joanne Spain and Joe Reilly and with a lot of luck they could get one from Jonathan O'Brien, David Cullinane, John Dwyer, Brian Stanley.

Are there any other constituencies that they might sneak one in on a good day?

How many seats do you think they'll get???

They'll hold the 5 they have but O'Snodaigh in DSC will fight hard to hold on.
Mary Lou won't make it, neither will McManus ( Sligo N Leitrim ) or Joe Reilly ( Meath West ) or Pádraig Mac Lochlainn ( Donegal NE ) but they will be last ones standing or very very close.

They will win;

Donegal SW
Dublin NE
Dublin NW

The surprise seat will be either Wexford - John Dwyer, and /or Laois Offaly - Brian Stanley

[Gerrry]

Just had a quick look through the first few pages of both the "Sinn Féin" and the "Elections" forums to see was there a thread on this already... and I couldn't see one so apologies if this has already been done.

Apology accepted but you posted less than a fortight ago on similar titled topic. :wink:

http://www.politics.ie/viewtopic.php...r=asc&start=96

How many seats will SF win?

Personally I think 10 would be the minimum and anything less would be a disappointment.

They will hold all five they currently have and I think they will add the following T.D.'s:

Mary Lou
Dessie Ellis
Padraig MacLochlann
Pearse Doherty; and
Larry O'Toole.

With a bit of luck they could easily add Sean McManus, Joanne Spain and Joe Reilly and with a lot of luck they could get one from Jonathan O'Brien, David Cullinane, John Dwyer, Brian Stanley.

Are there any other constituencies that they might sneak one in on a good day?

How many seats do you think they'll get???

They'll hold the 5 they have but O'Snodaigh in DSC will fight hard to hold on.
Mary Lou won't make it, neither will McManus ( Sligo N Leitrim ) or Joe Reilly ( Meath West ) or Pádraig Mac Lochlainn ( Donegal NE ) but they will be last ones standing or very very close.

They will win;

Donegal SW
Dublin NE
Dublin NW

The surprise seat will be either Wexford - John Dwyer, and /or Laois Offaly - Brian Stanley

Have to disagree with ya there. Aengus' seat is one of the safest of the SF ones (in as much as any seat is ever safe). You are right about Donegal SW and Dublin NE and NW but Mary Lou will win in DC and MacLochlainn will win in Donegal NE.

[wiseowl]

brian stanley will record a best ever vote for sf in laois offaly, but he will poll no better than 30% of a quota and will finish about 7th or 8th.

realistic odds of him winning a seat would be 100/1.

sf may get a base and for the future need to win seats on both councils especially offaly where it has no current councillors.

[I'm Neutral]

I notice a number of posters have been putting forward Dublin North East as a certain gain for SF .
Whilst FF are under severe pressure to retain their 2 seats in this constituency SF have a mountain to climb to pass out FG.In the last GE
FG obtained over 15% of the 1st prefs. with SF only getting 10%.
In the 2004 local elections FG again outpolled SF over the 3 relevant wards (Artane/Donaghmede/Howth) and most of Artane (which produced
the best SF results) is not included in the Dail constituency.
National opinion polls suggest that FG have improved since the local elections whereas SF have flatlined.
There is no obvious reason to expect a gain for SF here.
Have I missed something ?

[RetiredProvo]

brian stanley will record a best ever vote for sf in laois offaly, but he will poll no better than 30% of a quota and will finish about 7th or 8th.

Based on the fact that he got nearly 25% of the quota in 2002 and you're predicting his best ever vote in LO, surely he will poll more than 30% of the quota.

realistic odds of him winning a seat would be 100/1

Paddy Power currently quoting him 9/1 ( good odds in a 5 seater )

I'll take a bet with you at 100/1 though :wink:

sf may get a base and for the future need to win seats on both councils especially offaly where it has no current councillors.

I'll agree with you there SF need to strengthen presence in Offaly to be in with a shout. There are depending too much on Stanley's area of Portlaoise.

[Catalpa]

They'll hold the 5 they have but O'Snodaigh in DSC will fight hard to hold on.

IMO they will get 10 to 12. But it would be sweet if O'Snodaigh doesn't make it. :twisted: