Is Dessie o malley right about the PDs

[river]

PDs could have won 12 seats - O'Malley - The Irish Times - Mon, Jun 29, 2009

Dessie makes interesting points re the PDs- would thay really have got 12 seats if they pulled the plug on Bertie over the Mahon revelations

[Baron von Biffo]

PDs could have won 12 seats - O'Malley - The Irish Times - Mon, Jun 29, 2009

Dessie makes interesting points re the PDs- would thay really have got 12 seats if they pulled the plug on Bertie over the Mahon revelations

What 12 would they have got?

[Panopticon]

I think he was using a figure of speech, to add ten seats to what actually happened. I do suspect the PDs would be doing OK in polls if they had continued as a party after the election. However, that would have required one of them to show a will to lead the party, which didn't happen.

[Monkey-Magic]

Dessie O'Malley? I thought he was dead

[Munion]

12 would've been a bit much. My guess at the time was 8. Oh how wrong I was.

[river]

now that they've gone i think i miss them

[flavirostris]

interesting but they were always on a hiding to nothing against a resurgent FG. The PDs tended to do well when FG were having a bad day.
All of the PD seats lost in 2007 were to FG

[Greener]

PDs could have won 12 seats - O'Malley - The Irish Times - Mon, Jun 29, 2009

Dessie makes interesting points re the PDs- would thay really have got 12 seats if they pulled the plug on Bertie over the Mahon revelations

Probably not. There was a significant swing away from the PDs, and the magnitude of some of the defeats (Fiona O Malley's, Mae Sexton's) was such as to ensure that they had lost their seat a long time out. Colm O Gorman was never going to win a seat, Tom Morrissey was parachuted into a more "affluante area" (to his detriment), John Minhan had lost the respect of most of his constituants by 2005, and John Dardis and Kate Walsh were not going to run again. Michael Brennan was running in a no hoper constituency. The rest of the candidates were paper candidates who hadnt a hope of winning, even culminating in an SDP (1995 Bootle Strand Moment) where the Christian Soldarity Party, and the Immigration Control Platform beat PD Jerry Hannon in Dublin Central. Equally, the likes of Peader O Donnell polled in the hundreds, while the likes of Redmond, Murray, Collins, Lacey, and Doyle all came last in their respective areas

It was a fight of between 4-6 seats . Had McDowell pulled out of Government, he would have retained his seat, as the Bertie v Enda factor would have been damaged quite a bit, as Bertie would have had to pick up the flack of a distrusting former coalition partner. Equally, had Harney been leader he would have taken the seat (given the limited platform he would have had). Removal from Government would also have given Liz O Donnell a fighting chance of retaining her seat. As such 4 seats was a strong possibility. The seats which needed to be fought hardest for were Tim O Malley's and Tom Parlon's. They were the difference between 4-6 seats, and outside of Government, they could have washed their hands of their respective departments.

Naturally, that is all very hypothetical, however, had McDowell pulled out of Government in 2006, I can guarantee you that the PDs would still be in existence at the moment. Granted, the party would have been wiped out locally last month (as it would probably have been back in Government in 2007), and would be on life support until 2012

[Baron von Biffo]

now that they've gone i think i miss them

You'd probably miss a dose of the shíts as well but you'd be the better for its passing.

[Effin Effer!!!]

Probably not. There was a significant swing away from the PDs, and the magnitude of some of the defeats (Fiona O Malley's, Mae Sexton's) was such as to ensure that they had lost their seat a long time out. Colm O Gorman was never going to win a seat, Tom Morrissey was parachuted into a more "affluante area" (to his detriment), John Minhan had lost the respect of most of his constituants by 2005, and John Dardis and Kate Walsh were not going to run again. Michael Brennan was running in a no hoper constituency. The rest of the candidates were paper candidates who hadnt a hope of winning, even culminating in an SDP (1995 Bootle Strand Moment) where the Christian Soldarity Party, and the Immigration Control Platform beat PD Jerry Hannon in Dublin Central. Equally, the likes of Peader O Donnell polled in the hundreds, while the likes of Redmond, Murray, Collins, Lacey, and Doyle all came last in their respective areas

It was a fight of between 4-6 seats . Had McDowell pulled out of Government, he would have retained his seat, as the Bertie v Enda factor would have been damaged quite a bit, as Bertie would have had to pick up the flack of a distrusting former coalition partner. Equally, had Harney been leader he would have taken the seat (given the limited platform he would have had). Removal from Government would also have given Liz O Donnell a fighting chance of retaining her seat. As such 4 seats was a strong possibility. The seats which needed to be fought hardest for were Tim O Malley's and Tom Parlon's. They were the difference between 4-6 seats, and outside of Government, they could have washed their hands of their respective departments.

Naturally, that is all very hypothetical, however, had McDowell pulled out of Government in 2006, I can guarantee you that the PDs would still be in existence at the moment. Granted, the party would have been wiped out locally last month (as it would probably have been back in Government in 2007), and would be on life support until 2012

Tom Parlon had no hope of holding the seat!!!

Around my area in 2002 Tom canvassed with a contingent of I.F.A. lads ie: large Fine Gael farmers. Who went around telling everyone that Enright and Flanagan were safe and that Tom was going to take a Fianna Fail seat.

Result: The non-activist Fine Gael voters voted for Tom thinking their seats were safe. Fianna Fail voters held the line as you'd expect. And what happened? Low and behold Tom took a Fine Gael seat. What did they think was going to happen?

Hence, 5 years later the Fine Gael voters learned their lesson and re-elected Charlie. Just look at the first preferences for Flanagan and Parlon for the two elections, they literally swapped votes. It was a 1 off.