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About LinkBacksAny odds on the new leader?
Fiona or Ciáran?
I might toddle along for the event.
I can already feel the knot in my stomach. I can only imagine how they must feel.
Any odds on the new leader?
Fiona or Ciáran?
I might toddle along for the event.
I can already feel the knot in my stomach. I can only imagine how they must feel.
Bazinga!
Well if Fiona gets it, there's some chance of the PDs surviving long enough to be rebuilt - as she would at least appeal to the middle-class Dublin base that's critical to the PDs survival. If Cannon gets it its all over. Several PD councillors who are in discussions with both major parties have effectively said "wait till the leadership is decided - if Cannon gets it, we'll talk again."
"Elite - a small superior group; esp one that has a power out of proportion to its size." (Oxford English Dictionary)
The majority cannot therefore be the elite.
Originally Posted by hiding behind a poster
Have you heard Cannon? He is very impressive. I would have no worries if either of them won.
Besides, it's a vertical uphill struggle to survive anyway. It's going to be tough for however takes it on, lets have no illusions that somehow one winning instead of the other will make all the difference; it won't.
Bazinga!
That's a lie and your a liar.
I met Cannon a few times. A very impressive individual. From what I here he will win it. If the old leadership thing doesn't work out for him I'd love to see him in Fianna Fáil.
Liquidate labour, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.
Spinning again HBAP. Cannon is by far the more impressive candidate and clearly – if the PDs do ever again mount a threat – the greater danger to FG.
Have you heard Cannon? He is very impressive. I would have no worries if either of them won.
Besides, it's a vertical uphill struggle to survive anyway. It's going to be tough for however takes it on, lets have no illusions that somehow one winning instead of the other will make all the difference; it won't.
[quote=Defeated Romanticist]That's a lie and your a liar.[/quote:1e7ndimf]
Care to point out what I've said that's a lie, DR?
You're kinda proving my point there. O'Malley is crucial to the PDs survival, because in order to have any chance of holding that niche middle-class Dublin vote, the PDs need someone who looks and sounds like she represents that vote. O'Malley, for all her flakiness, is that - and Cannon simply isn't. He has already nailed his colours to the mast, by effectively showing his vision of the PDs to be an extension of FF. That will finish them off - as will the defection or retirement of several councillors if Cannon gets it.I met Cannon a few times. A very impressive individual. From what I here he will win it. If the old leadership thing doesn't work out for him I'd love to see him in Fianna Fáil.
"Elite - a small superior group; esp one that has a power out of proportion to its size." (Oxford English Dictionary)
The majority cannot therefore be the elite.
Spinning again HBAP. Cannon is by far the more impressive candidate and clearly – if the PDs do ever again mount a threat – the greater danger to FG.
Have you heard Cannon? He is very impressive. I would have no worries if either of them won.
Besides, it's a vertical uphill struggle to survive anyway. It's going to be tough for however takes it on, lets have no illusions that somehow one winning instead of the other will make all the difference; it won't.You really are blind, aren't you? FG would be dancing in the aisles if Cannon got it, as the last chance of the PDs being in any way distinct from FF would be extinguished. The PDs are probably finished anyway, but O'Malley as leader would at least give them a separate identity for a while. Now, I'm discussing this subject on the basis of the issues involved, Apparatchik - any chance you might do the same for once?
"Elite - a small superior group; esp one that has a power out of proportion to its size." (Oxford English Dictionary)
The majority cannot therefore be the elite.
[quote=hiding behind a poster][quote="Defeated Romanticist":13y937rf]That's a lie and your a liar.[/quote:13y937rf]
Care to point out what I've said that's a lie, DR?
You're kinda proving my point there. O'Malley is crucial to the PDs survival, because in order to have any chance of holding that niche middle-class Dublin vote, the PDs need someone who looks and sounds like she represents that vote. O'Malley, for all her flakiness, is that - and Cannon simply isn't. He has already nailed his colours to the mast, by effectively showing his vision of the PDs to be an extension of FF. That will finish them off - as will the defection or retirement of several councillors if Cannon gets it.[/quote:13y937rf]I met Cannon a few times. A very impressive individual. From what I here he will win it. If the old leadership thing doesn't work out for him I'd love to see him in Fianna Fáil.
You lied when you said that PD cllrs would bolt if Cannon got the leadership. That's a a lie, not even a convincing one.
As for the PD Dublin vote; Cannon is really quite the find, he'd make as good a stab at that as FOM would.
Liquidate labour, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.
In the real world of politics, it is vital that O'Malley wins. Ciaran is able, likable and impressive. But there are a couple of basic facts the PDs have to face:
1) In all their history, where they lose a seat, it is gone for good. The local organisation collapses, the local vote collapses and the PDs as a serious challenger disappears. A classic example is in Cork where solid seats were lost, then in election after election they went from nearly having a quota to being far from a quota to either not being able to find a candidate to run or being so humiliated that independents and extreme parties overtook them.
2) In their entire history there are only THREE constituencies where they have EVER managed to win back a lost seat. They are in Dun laoghaire, Dublin South and Dublin South East. With constituency seat changes Dun Laoghaire is now effectively out of their reach. So it means that based on their history they NEED to target those two seats as their top priorities. They are the ONLY two places where they have managed to buck the trend and regain lost seats.
3) Cannon's base support in Galway is socially conservative (the PD support in the west always was, because Bobby Molloy himself was a social conservative who in his FF career had been anti-divorce, anti-abortion, anti-contraception, etc. His supporters tended to reflect that. That conservatism in the PDs in the west was shown in the intense lobbying that took place to stop the party renominating as a candidate a sitting senator who was gay and liberal.
4) As a result, the appeal base of the PDs in the west is miles different to the socially liberal PDs of Dublin South and South East, the two areas where they have the best chance, going by history of regaining seats.
The reality is that, attractive as Ciaran is (and he is) electing him would completely alienate its south Dublin support base. If it does that, it can kiss any chance of winning back those seats goodbye. Their chances of winning in South East may already have been destroyed by Libertas, who in an extremely stupid move ran a poster campaign attacking Lucinda Creighton for views expressed earlier on a European Army. Libertas, who are not the most clued in politically, didn't seem to grasp that attacking a Fine Gaeler in that constituency for wanting a European anything was insane. All it would do is give that person a massive profile on an issue that in South East that would win votes. So Libertas have probably given Creighton an even safer seat. Fianna Fail will hold its seat. Labour will probably do so. So the PDs would have to take John Gormley's seat and that is likely to be difficult because whatever people think about him going into government with FF, he is not the same hate figure as McDowell. Replacing Creighton at the best of times would be difficult. Libertas have probably made it impossible. So effectively bang goes the Dublin South East seat just as it is gone in Dun Laoghaire.
So they really really need to get Dublin South back. O'Malley could appeal as leader to Dublin South voters. Cannon couldn't. (McDowell, because he was so controversial, appealed nowhere, certainly not to South Dublin liberals.) If they cannot win that seat, and they will probably lose Harney's and Cannon is unlikely to win, they will have no Dail seats in the next Dail, and unless in government and get Taoiseach's appointees, will have no Seanad seats. If they are out of the Oireachtas they are doomed.
It boils down to a simple equation: to survive they need a leader who can appeal to South Dublin. Cannon cannot. O'Malley may do. They have lost Cork, lost Limerick. If they lose Dublin too they are screwed.
[color=#FF0000](Guys, when I type in capitals it isn't shouting. I have technical problems which makes using italics difficult. Please don't take offence if you see capitals used!) [/color]
It was because he was gay and liberal. If you know as much about the PDs as you claim to you will know very well what happened. You will know the pressure that was put, the fact that some social conservatives in the west threatened to leave the party if "a gay" (as one put it in an abusive call to HQ) was appointed and then became leader. Meetings were held were "total opposition" (in the words of a draft motion that under pressure was not put forward) was expressed. But then if you know much about PD history you would know that one of the leading defectors in Galway to the party when it was founded was an ultra-conservative councillor who would make Alice Glenn seem like Mary Robinson. There was hilarity at the time when she joined because Dessie had taken a liberal stance on contraception (a u-turn from his earlier viewpoints) and she opposed liberalising the condom laws. But she joined the party because she was close to Bobby, who himself had a career of holding conservative viewpoints. FF believed he would not join the PDs because they believed that he would not stomach Dessie and Mary's newfound liberalism. Bobby brought most of his organisation, the vast majority conservative, with him. They have been considerably to the right, socially, of the mainstream PD party, with some being active in the anti-divorce and no divorce campaigns in the mid 1990s.ABSOLUTE BULL************************
Was this,as you say because he was
A gay and liberal
B Because of his electorial results
When the party lost all its Dublin deputies bar Mary in the election they sought to move the party to their socially conservative stance (a number of them have been associated with conservative Catholic organisations promoting the myth that the Lisbon Treaty will introduce abortion outside churches in Galway in recent weeks). They laid down the line on the selection of senators: no way would they accept that particular senator being appointed. A letter was sent by some threatening mass defection from the party.
As to that candidate's Dail electability, if the PDs had had the cop-on to run him in Dublin he would have walked into a seat. Jesus Christ, if a PD candidate, would not have gotten elected in the constituency the party ran that candidate in.
For someone in your position, your lack of knowledge concerning the events surrounding the selection of your senators is surprising. Maybe those making the decision didn't let you know what was happening. They did however let two senior PDs I know learn all about the pressures placed. Both separately confirmed the story at the time, and a third person, a member of the PDs in Galway, confirmed it subsequently.
[color=#FF0000](Guys, when I type in capitals it isn't shouting. I have technical problems which makes using italics difficult. Please don't take offence if you see capitals used!) [/color]
