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  1. #1
    Socratus O' Pericles Socratus O' Pericles is online now
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    Democratically and Demographically moving to a United Ireland

    Could the increasing proportianality of Catholics to Protestants and the attitude of those Catholics to a reunited Ireland be a real prospect over time?


    I have looked at the CAIN and NISRA websites and it seems Northern Ireland is moving on a trend toward a Catholic majority. The path to a united Ireland could lie therein despite all the assurance in the GFA. The concentration of Unionists is obviously east of the Bann but in the long run there must be concern that they will simply be out voted.


    Religious Denomination Number in 1991 % Number in 2001 % in 2001
    Catholic 605,639 38.4% 678,462 40.26%
    Presbyterian 336,891 21.4% 348,742 20.69%
    Church of Ireland 279,280 17.7% 257,788 15.30%
    Methodist 59,517 3.8% 59,173 3.51%
    Baptist 19,484 1.2% .. ..
    Brethren 12,446 0.8% .. ..
    Congregationist 8,176 0.5% .. ..
    Unitarian 3,213 0.2% .. ..
    Other 79,129 5.0% 102,2211 6.07%
    Other Religions .. .. 5,0282 0.33%
    None 59,234 3.7% .. ..
    Not Stated 114,827 7.3% 233,8533 13.88%
    Total 1,577,836 100% 1,685,267 100%


    Other interesting factors are the number of people not stating any religion and the number of Catholics who see the option of remaining in the UK is falling over time. Down from 32 to 24.

    Preferred long-term policy for Northern Ireland by religion (%)(based on 1996 survey results)


    1989 1990 1991 1993 1994
    Protestants
    Remain part of UK 93 93 92 90 90
    Reunify Ireland 3 5 4 5 6
    Other option 2 1 1 4 3
    Don't know 2 1 1 1 1
    Not answered 0 0 1 0 0
    Catholics
    Remain part of UK 32 33 35 36 24
    Reunify Ireland 56 55 53 49 60
    Other option 4 5 2 5 7
    Don't know 7 6 7 10 8
    Not answered 1 1 2 1 1
    Others
    Remain part of UK 81 72 79 74 66
    Reunify Ireland 13 19 13 13 15
    Other option 4 5 4 6 14
    Don't know 3 2 4 7 5
    Not answered 0 2 0 0 0

    CAIN: Background Information on Northern Ireland Society - Religion

    northern ireland population by religion 2011 nisra - Google Search

    NISRA seem to be coy about this issue mind you!
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  2. #2
    Socratus O' Pericles Socratus O' Pericles is online now
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    The result of all of this insanity is that a United Ireland is now inevitable. Within a decade, Catholics will be in the majority in the North and the statutory mechanism will be activated. But in the meantime, we will be in limbo. Maybe direct rule, maybe a pretence of a government at Stormont.
    https://www.independent.ie/sport/col...-36290151.html


    Joe Brolly says oui!
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  3. #3
    gleeful gleeful is online now

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    The 'No Deal' scenario might help the Unionists vote with their pockets.

    On 30/03/19 the Tories drop all import tariffs on food to overcome the soaring price of imports - food imports from South America, etc, flood the market. Tories also forces to end farming subsidy due to a lack of cash and WTO disputes - NI's farming industry decimated.

    That might convince a few unionists that unification isn't so bad.
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  4. #4
    Socratus O' Pericles Socratus O' Pericles is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by gleeful View Post
    The 'No Deal' scenario might help the Unionists vote with their pockets.

    On 30/03/19 the Tories drop all import tariffs on food to overcome the soaring price of imports - food imports from South America, etc, flood the market. Tories also forces to end farming subsidy due to a lack of cash and WTO disputes - NI's farming industry decimated.

    That might convince a few unionists that unification isn't so bad.
    Seems a real danger. Also the Westminster subventions to Belfast at current levels seem improbable. I was arguing purely on the numbers, Joe is pointing at DUP’s intransigence and quite insulting language. In any event tricky times for the Union.
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  5. #5
    ThatsReasonable ThatsReasonable is offline
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    I've met Sinn Féin supporters in the north who have told me they wouldn't vote for a united Ireland. The reason is always the same - the Health Service. As the Tories move to dismantle the NHS and farmers' subsidies and all the other stuff, I believe that might start to change. If Brexit is the disaster I fear it might be, then we could be 20 years from a UI.

    That's unless LV gets his way on rewriting the GFA - i.e. the Unionists need 50%+1 but the nationalists need 70%+1.
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  6. #6
    The Field Marshal The Field Marshal is offline
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    It's a monstrous conceit by southern Irish Catholics to be always thinking that a majority of northern Irish Catholics want to form a political union with them.
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  7. #7
    Socratus O' Pericles Socratus O' Pericles is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Field Marshal View Post
    It's a monstrous conceit by southern Irish Catholics to be always thinking that a majority of northern Irish Catholics want to form a political union with them.
    What do you make of Brolly’s contention that it is the DUP’s movement far from the spirit of respect and tolerance that existed at the time of the GFA and St. Andrews agts? SF sans McGuinness are equally intransigent tbf.
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    wombat wombat is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Socratus O' Pericles View Post
    Could the increasing proportianality of Catholics to Protestants and the attitude of those Catholics to a reunited Ireland be a real prospect over time?
    I think it was Paddy Devlin who explained the north - half are loyal to the crown but all are loyal to the half crown.
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  9. #9
    Se0samh Se0samh is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by Socratus O' Pericles View Post
    What do you make of Brolly’s contention that it is the DUP’s movement far from the spirit of respect and tolerance that existed at the time of the GFA and St. Andrews agts? SF sans McGuinness are equally intransigent tbf.

    Could you develop that further please, I'm not sure what has been asked of them, that they could have given but have refused...
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  10. #10
    Se0samh Se0samh is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by wombat View Post
    I think it was Paddy Devlin who explained the north - half are loyal to the crown but all are loyal to the half crown.
    Trite nonsense...
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