I had a feeling that's what you meant, and I totally accept that
SF seem to have a real issue with being able to pick up SDLP supporters as they abandon the party they've always supported.. But in terms of turnout I don't think that is somehow masking big support for the SDLP, but that voters aren't turning out because of a lack of cohesion (eg. McDonnell this week....) Simply, conflict is over and elections are no longer seen as the battleground they were before. I think your point on FST actually proves this to some extent... conflict politics really came into play here, and the SDLP were trampled in the stampede. Their own ineptitude didnt help, and as a result
SF held the ground they had won a year earlier against Rodney Connor.
The other constituencies just don't present this same level of conflict. North Belfast over the next few cycles will prove if this mindset still prevails and in the face of winning the seat for the Nationalist community, can
SF take it? That's the question. I suspect they can, but we will see.
I noticed you made a point earlier about
SF losing/not being able to win seats in mixed areas (or majority Unionist areas where the vote is extremely weighted against Nationalism). But I just don't think thats true.. look at East Antrim where the SDLP were neck and neck with
SF just a year and a half ago. There had never been a Nationalist seat here before and if the community was going to strive for a seat they could have chosen the party likely to pick up Unionist transfers.. they didnt.
SF pulled well ahead and won the seat. In fact, Oliver McMullan won a council seat at the same time.. the first ever
SF seat in Larne!
There is a trend, and it's against the SDLP. They just don't work anymore. Their councillors aren't seen on the ground. They aren't viewed as a political force.. merely a ragtag. Turnout may be down, but that does not mean
SF support is down.. it just means that young people see no reason not to vote. They do not fear the consequences of not voting.
I'm from the neighbouring constituency to yourself (East Derry) , and I haven't had the right to vote for very long.. but I know that young people have a general feeling were their party allegiance lies. Many speak ill of the SDLP, without perhaps understanding why. Young people in large numbers now vote, or say that they would, for
SF. Their parents abandoned the SDLP, and now they have followed suit. Granted, you live in 1 of just 3 constituencies were the SDLP still stands relatively strong, but on the basis of figures, Foyle will be the next to fall to
SF... that's only if Unionism fails to muster the strength to stop it