Will govt have Seanad majority?

[Insider2007]

I would have presumed that, given the ability to 11 senators, the government is guaranteed a majority in the Seanad. However there appears to be considerable disagreement as to whether even with the 11 nominees the government will break 30, with some people seemingly calculating that it will only have 29.

I am no expert on the Seanad elections so I am looking to hear people's factual analysis.

What is the likely result? Govt vs Opposition

How many seats will each party get?

If the government gets 30 even, will be again have the battle over which side will provide the chairman (Cathaoirleach) as we did over the issue of the Ceann Comhairle?

So come on, p.ie number-crunchers, got any predictions and explanations of your predictions?

[Limerick Lad]

If the Government fractures during the next few years and either the PDs or the Greens decide to leave taking their Senate votes with them, it could leave the Government with a serious dilemma in the Senate even if they manage to gain a slim majority initially, no security of a belt and braces for Bertie in the Senate.

[FutureTaoiseach]

The electorate consists of cllrs, Senators, TDs and university-graduates of the NUI and TCD (why has this still not been extended to all universities in line with the 1979 constitutional amendment?). The universities elect 6 Senators. I don't forsee any real change in the composition of the latter but hey what do I know....

There was another thread on this in which, having read up the byzantine rules for electing Seanad Eireann, I concluded that because of the massive 'cull' of FF councillors in 2004, it seems inevitable that they are going to lose seats - imho they will lose around 5 of the elected Senators - bringing the elective FF element down to around 18. I don't think the Greens or the PDs will be able to get anyone elected - neither have enough cllrs or Senators. Bertie is going to appoint 2 PD and 2 Green Senators and in that context one would expect around 7 FF Senators. So that's around 29 Senate seats I am predicting for the govt. However, if the Greens or PDs pull out of govt, then the govt majority would vanish. It should not be forgotten that Senator Shane Ross shares fairly neoliberal economic views e.g. supported the principle if not the circumstances of Aer Lingus privatisation, has condemned inefficiency in the semi-states - so his support might be counted on on an issue-by-issue basis. So that's 30 seats.

The electorate, excluding the graduates, is as follows:

TDs, Senators, and City and County Cllrs can vote in Seanad Elections. There are 883 councillors and 166 TDs. Cllrs by party are:

FF: 302
FG: 293
Labour: 101
PD:19
Green: 18
SF: 54
Socialist: 4
Others: 92

TDs:
FF: 78
FG: 51
Labour: 20
Green: 6
SF: 4
PD: 2
Ind: 5

Senators:
FF: 28 (5 appointed)
FG: 15
Labour: 7
PD: 5 (all appointed)
Ind: 7 (1 appointed)

In 2002, the Seanad electorate was 47% FF, 29.9% FG, Labour 9%, PD:3%, Green:1%, SF:2.4%, Workers Party:0.3%, Socialist Party:0.2% , and Others:9.5%. FF won 23 seats. In that regard, leaving aside the university votes, the 2007 electorate is around 1,111, and there are (excluding the Taoiseach's 11 nominees) 43 Seanad seats. I would assume an outcome as follows:

FF: 408 (36.7%) (18 Senators - they got 54% of the 43 seats on 47% of the vote in 2002)
FG: 359 (32.3%) (16 - they got 35% of the 43 seats on 30% last time)
Labour: 128 (11.5%) (6-7)
PD: 26 (2.3%) (0-1)
SF: 58 (5.2%) (0)
Green: 24 (2.1%) (0)
Ind: 104 (3)
Socialist: 4 (0)

In that context, bearing in mind the tendency of the university-graduates to elect Indos, I am giving the Indos around 9 seats. Bertie will appoint 11 govt Senators, bringing their combined Seanad vote to 29 seats. Someone in Labour will probably take up the Cathaorlach's job giving the govt 29-30 seats, Rainbow 22. If the govt has 29 seats, Shane Ross will probably prop up the govt majority here.

[constitutionus]

do bears ************************ in the woods?

of course they will, its been rigged that way since devaleras day!

[spartacus]

The electorate consists of cllrs, Senators, TDs and university-graduates of the NUI and TCD (why has this still not been extended to all universities in line with the 1979 constitutional amendment?). The universities elect 6 Senators. I don't forsee any real change in the composition of the latter but hey what do I know....

I am bemused by the way a lot of you graduate types seem to think that you have a god given right to seats in the Seanad. If we're not going to get rid of this anachronism of selective constituencies shouldn't we at least think of broadening it out to other constituencies.

Let's see what we could more usefully come up with:
- unemployed
- travellers
- lone parents
- immigrants
- emigrants
- trade unionists
- former prisoners
- current prisoners
- disabled
- nordies
- farmers

Any of the above would be more worthy of giving a voice in the system than the current elitist arrangements.

(Feel free to add other constituencies for purposes of debate)

but hey what do I know....

[Insider2007]

do bears ************************ in the woods?

of course they will, its been rigged that way since devaleras day!

It is set up so that they should be able to have a majority, but it isn't automatic. It does seem very borderline this time. (Remember John Bruton's rainbow didn't have a majority.)

[mmclo]

Sinn Fein will not sit twidling their thumbs with 54 votes, presume PDs and greens will vote FF in exchange for Taoiseachs nominees

[Insider2007]

Sinn Fein will not sit twidling their thumbs with 54 votes, presume PDs and greens will vote FF in exchange for Taoiseachs nominees

They would be fools to do so. They got their nominees for their deal in the Dáil. It is an automatic perk of government. They should be using their votes to help themselves - maybe by running an agreed candidate, someone perhaps outside politics who they both could support. That way, they would have extra leeway, because if they walked, they could screw Bertie over in the Seanad. If they vote for a FFer they would give Bertie yet another blank cheque. (But then given the naivety of the Greens in their negotiations with Bertie, they probably have given away their Seanad votes too. FFers are already laughing their heads off at the Greens, believing that they have pulled the wool over their eyes. Other parties also believe the Greens have bought the proverbial pig in a poke.)

[Rebelman]

Its going to be touch and go for FF - their own vote should return them 18 out of the 43 seats on the panels, for them to get any more than that elected they will be relying on the votes of others such as the SF, Indos, Greens & PDs. They require 20 with the 11 to get a majority. The 11 was originally conceived to ensure the government always held a majority in the seanad. If they fail to have it this time including the 11 - this will be unprecedented to the best of my knowledge.

[Tintern1]

Whether the government has a majority in the Seanad is not necessarily as important as it sounds.

Under Article 23 of the Constitution any Bill rejected by the Seanad may become an Act at the wishes of the Dail whether passed by the Seanad or not after 90 days.

Not the best way of legislating of course but does allow for nearly all controversial bills to be passed by the Dail regardless of the Seanad

Important to note that it doesn't apply to Money Bills (ie Finance)! Obvious prob there.