Will govt have Seanad majority?

[Liberal333]

What problem? The Senate can only hold up a Money Bill for 21 days.

Symbolism. It looks shockingly bad and will very likely result in a huge surge of 'the end is nigh for the govt' news stories -which could become self fulfilling.

[Odyessus]

The electorate consists of cllrs, Senators, TDs and university-graduates of the NUI and TCD (why has this still not been extended to all universities in line with the 1979 constitutional amendment?). The universities elect 6 Senators. I don't forsee any real change in the composition of the latter but hey what do I know....

There was another thread on this in which, having read up the byzantine rules for electing Seanad Eireann, I concluded that because of the massive 'cull' of FF councillors in 2004, it seems inevitable that they are going to lose seats - imho they will lose around 5 of the elected Senators - bringing the elective FF element down to around 18. I don't think the Greens or the PDs will be able to get anyone elected - neither have enough cllrs or Senators. Bertie is going to appoint 2 PD and 2 Green Senators and in that context one would expect around 7 FF Senators. So that's around 29 Senate seats I am predicting for the govt. However, if the Greens or PDs pull out of govt, then the govt majority would vanish. It should not be forgotten that Senator Shane Ross shares fairly neoliberal economic views e.g. supported the principle if not the circumstances of Aer Lingus privatisation, has condemned inefficiency in the semi-states - so his support might be counted on on an issue-by-issue basis. So that's 30 seats.

The electorate, excluding the graduates, is as follows:

TDs, Senators, and City and County Cllrs can vote in Seanad Elections. There are 883 councillors and 166 TDs. Cllrs by party are:

FF: 302
FG: 293
Labour: 101
PD:19
Green: 18
SF: 54
Socialist: 4
Others: 92

TDs:
FF: 78
FG: 51
Labour: 20
Green: 6
SF: 4
PD: 2
Ind: 5

Senators:
FF: 28 (5 appointed)
FG: 15
Labour: 7
PD: 5 (all appointed)
Ind: 7 (1 appointed)

In 2002, the Seanad electorate was 47% FF, 29.9% FG, Labour 9%, PD:3%, Green:1%, SF:2.4%, Workers Party:0.3%, Socialist Party:0.2% , and Others:9.5%. FF won 23 seats. In that regard, leaving aside the university votes, the 2007 electorate is around 1,111, and there are (excluding the Taoiseach's 11 nominees) 43 Seanad seats. I would assume an outcome as follows:

FF: 408 (36.7%) (18 Senators - they got 54% of the 43 seats on 47% of the vote in 2002)
FG: 359 (32.3%) (16 - they got 35% of the 43 seats on 30% last time)
Labour: 128 (11.5%) (6-7)
PD: 26 (2.3%) (0-1)
SF: 58 (5.2%) (0)
Green: 24 (2.1%) (0)
Ind: 104 (3)
Socialist: 4 (0)

In that context, bearing in mind the tendency of the university-graduates to elect Indos, I am giving the Indos around 9 seats. Bertie will appoint 11 govt Senators, bringing their combined Seanad vote to 29 seats. Someone in Labour will probably take up the Cathaorlach's job giving the govt 29-30 seats, Rainbow 22. If the govt has 29 seats, Shane Ross will probably prop up the govt majority here.

(why has this still not been extended to all universities in line with the 1979 constitutional amendment?)

Governments usually plead pressure of more important business, but Gormley has given a commitment to introduce a bill to extend the Seanad franchise to graduates of all Universities before the next election.

[Ah Well]

Thats pretty much what I suspected.

However, I don't really know the backgrounds/motives of alot of the Senators. Obviously, some of them particularly the Taoiseachs nominees wanted to get into the Seanad as a springboard to gaining election to the Dail. On the current numbers that is now unlikely. Faced with almost certainly losing their jobs after the next election, as more senior FFers who have lost out will go the Seanad route, are there any that might pull a Joe Behan in the hopes that an Independent will do better??

Also, if a Senator dies, does their respective party sinply nominate to replace them or does the seat remain unfilled??

C

If there are FF losses in the next General Election whenever that will occur, then it's a very likely possibility that some/all Dáil Members losing out would re-emerge in the Seanad as Senators ... which obviously would mean some existing FF Senators would be the fall guys. But there are two types of FFers in the Senate, namely those elected through the various Panels and those simply nominated by An Taoiseach. My own view on that is such existing FF Senators having this jump ship approach may be caught between a rock and a hard place to an extent ... in that by doing so they're depending on relection in a suitable Panel as a Senator outside mainline FF and that's not going to be easy plus obviously the prospect of a nomination as one of the 11 by An Taoiseach will not remotely exist.

Re the Senators dying it is a very different scenario if they were elected to the Panels or simply a Taoiseach Nominee;

1937 Constitution;

Article 18.10.2;

Casual vacancies in the number of the nominated members of Seanad Éireann shall be filled by nomination by the Taoiseach with the prior consent of persons so nominated

Article 18.10.3;

Casual vacancies in the number of the elected members of Seanad Éireann shall be filled in the manner provided by law - I am not exactly sure how vacancies for non Taoiseach nominated Senators are filled - perhaps the voting electorate entitled to vote for election of Senators to that particular Panel just cast their vote : similar to a by election. Someone else on here might elaborate?

[thebig C]

If there are FF losses in the next General Election whenever that will occur, then it's a very likely possibility that some/all Dáil Members losing out would re-emerge in the Seanad as Senators ... which obviously would mean some existing FF Senators would be the fall guys. But there are two types of FFers in the Senate, namely those elected through the various Panels and those simply nominated by An Taoiseach. My own view on that is such existing FF Senators having this jump ship approach may be caught between a rock and a hard place to an extent ... in that by doing so they're depending on relection in a suitable Panel as a Senator outside mainline FF and that's not going to be easy plus obviously the prospect of a nomination as one of the 11 by An Taoiseach will not remotely exist.

Re the Senators dying it is a very different scenario if they were elected to the Panels or simply a Taoiseach Nominee;

1937 Constitution;

Article 18.10.2;

Casual vacancies in the number of the nominated members of Seanad Éireann shall be filled by nomination by the Taoiseach with the prior consent of persons so nominated

Article 18.10.3;

Casual vacancies in the number of the elected members of Seanad Éireann shall be filled in the manner provided by law - I am not exactly sure how vacancies for non Taoiseach nominated Senators are filled - perhaps the voting electorate entitled to vote for election of Senators to that particular Panel just cast their vote : similar to a by election. Someone else on here might elaborate?

If if was the same electotate, ie the councilors and TDs/Sentaors voting to fill the place of an "elected" Senator.....after the 2009 local elections that would be difficult for a government to win!!!

[thebig C]

Symbolism. It looks shockingly bad and will very likely result in a huge surge of 'the end is nigh for the govt' news stories -which could become self fulfilling.

Exactly, it has little real effect. But the PR effect would be fairly devastating! A bit like the TET Offensive in Vietnam, military disater but media coup for the Viet Cong.

In other words signaling that the Government has lost control.

C

[Ah Well]

If if was the same electotate, ie the councilors and TDs/Sentaors voting to fill the place of an "elected" Senator.....after the 2009 local elections that would be difficult for a government to win!!!

Depends on what Panel it is!

[Lefournier]

What problem? The Senate can only hold up a Money Bill for 21 days.

A 90 day delay on ordinary legislation could be a serious obstacle for the Government and 21 days on the Budget would be a nightmare.

No wonder the Seanad vote on the bank bailout was such a debacle. Expect more of this with a loose Cannon in there

[florin]

It's the senate. No-one really pays any attention. If the govt got into a sticky situation one of the independents would likely absent himself in return for some preferential treatment.

Cannon should resign in disgrace anyway.

Why, because once one is nominated by the Taoiseach one must be subservient to his will? Do the life peers in the House of Lords follow the same protocol?

(And, in any case, Cannon was appointed by Ahern and has no obligation to serve Cowen)

[florin]

Tony Kett has passed away, making the gap even narrower. Of the 59 Senators, there are

- 27 FF
- 2 Green
- 8 Independent, of which only Harris and O'Malley would be pro-FF.