Will govt have Seanad majority?

[Rebelman]

following the completion of the panel seats being filled having displayed a superb electoral strategy the government have secured their majority.

Results of the panels:

FF 21 FG 14 Lab 6 SF 1 Ind 1

(the one ind. is FF gene pool)

Added to the Taoiseach's 11 that gives the government 33 (including gene pool ind.)

[FutureTaoiseach]

Excellent news. It further illustrates the collapse of the 'alternative govt' and shows the electorate lack of an alternative to this govt. Labour and SF are now in bed together - something a lot of their traditional vote will find repulsive and offputting in 2012. Labour has finally woken up to the fact that their alliance with FG was one of their Achilles Heels in 2007. Ironically, their response to this has been to acquire a new one - SF. :P

Whether the government has a majority in the Seanad is not necessarily as important as it sounds.

Under Article 23 of the Constitution any Bill rejected by the Seanad may become an Act at the wishes of the Dail whether passed by the Seanad or not after 90 days.

Not the best way of legislating of course but does allow for nearly all controversial bills to be passed by the Dail regardless of the Seanad

Important to note that it doesn't apply to Money Bills (ie Finance)! Obvious prob there.

Yes but it matters a bit to the extent that a majority in the Seanad can allow the Opposition to try to force referenda over the govts head via a petition to the president if they also have one-third of the Dail. So it helps.

[Insider2007]

Excellent news. It further illustrates the collapse of the 'alternative govt' and shows the electorate lack of an alternative to this govt. Labour and SF are now in bed together - something a lot of their traditional vote will find repulsive and offputting in 2012. Labour has finally woken up to the fact that their alliance with FG was one of their Achilles Heels in 2007. Ironically, their response to this has been to acquire a new one - SF. :P

For a PD to use the word "collapse" to describe anyone in any other party, given the fact that the PDs lost 6 TDs and will lose 3 senators, lost their leader, deputy leader, president and may lose more, is so ironic it is funny. But then FT spins so much it is a wonder he isn't too dizzy to type.

[Papinian]

One thing which should be helping FF (and possibly also FG) in more recent Seanad elections is the abolition of the dual mandate. This is because someone who was both a councillor and a TD/senator only got one vote, not two. With the abolition of the dual mandate the number of available votes should increase, and my impression was that FF backbenchers were the most likely to keep their council seats even after being elected. Its an intuitive guess but I'd say 30-40 votes more are available now than ten or twelve years ago as a result.

Strangely, because senators are elected by incoming TDs and outgoing senators, if incoming TDs were formerly senators then their party (assuming the votes for senators stay within parties) will be slightly disadvantaged compared to where incoming TDs were not. The same may apply to councillors who become TDs - does anyone know if the co-options to their council seats are done in time for co-optees to vote in seanad elections.

One anomaly, or at least inconsistency, which should really be looked at is the fact that the electorate for the university panel seats is graduates who are Irish citizens, whereas UK citizens living in Ireland can vote in Dail elections since the 1986 constitutional amendment and consequent legislation. Doesn't it seem strange that a TCD grad who is a UK citizen and living in Ireland can vote in Dail elections but not for the TCD university senators? In 1950s half of TCD's students were from Northern Ireland or Great Britain. Now the effect of fixing the anomaly should be relatively marginal, but my impression is that the TCD senators like to keep the electorate as small as possible to protect their seats (whatever public pronouncements they may make).

[SEANSOUTH]

following the completion of the panel seats being filled having displayed a superb electoral strategy the government have secured their majority.

Results of the panels:

FF 21 FG 14 Lab 6 SF 1 Ind 1

(the one ind. is FF gene pool)

Added to the Taoiseach's 11 that gives the government 33 (including gene pool ind.)

[thebig C]

Obviously, the Government are now down to 32, with Cannon moving to FG. If we take it that O'Malley is an independent, that puts them at 31, potentially.

A couple of questions, who do those on the University/Union panel normally vote with?

Also, of the Taoiseachs appointees, are all of them rock-solid FF or are there other mavricks (and that description is me being kind) like Harris??

Could they lose a Seanad majority? Ok, so the Seanad can't block Money/Supply Bills to create a situation such as that in Australia in 1975. But, life could be made difficult if all the other measures they passed were held up!

C

[Ah Well]

Obviously, the Government are now down to 32, with Cannon moving to FG. If we take it that O'Malley is an independent, that puts them at 31, potentially.

A couple of questions, who do those on the University/Union panel normally vote with?

Also, of the Taoiseachs appointees, are all of them rock-solid FF or are there other mavricks (and that description is me being kind) like Harris??

Could they lose a Seanad majority? Ok, so the Seanad can't block Money/Supply Bills to create a situation such as that in Australia in 1975. But, life could be made difficult if all the other measures they passed were held up!

C

As per the 2007 Seanad Elections (incl Taoiseach Nominees) to make up the 60 seats;

FF 28
FG 14
Lab 6
PD 2
Green 2
SF 1
Others 7

So if everyone besides the FF/Green guys voted otherwise it'd be a 50-50 split.

I haven't checked this but am guessing that the Leader of the House comes in then? which is Donie? thus resulting in it moved in favour of the Gov even with the whole of the rest of the Seanad voting in a contrary manner.

So that would make it seem that either the Greens in addition not playing ball or a few FF mavericks would be required to upset the apple cart.

(Obviously the above occurs where all 60 members of the Seanad participate and are voting in a situation)

[thebig C]

As per the 2007 Seanad Elections (incl Taoiseach Nominees) to make up the 60 seats;

FF 28
FG 14
Lab 6
PD 2
Green 2
SF 1
Others 7

So if everyone besides the FF/Green guys voted otherwise it'd be a 50-50 split.

I haven't checked this but am guessing that the Leader of the House comes in then? which is Donie? thus resulting in it moved in favour of the Gov even with the whole of the rest of the Seanad voting in a contrary manner.

So that would make it seem that either the Greens in addition not playing ball or a few FF mavericks would be required to upset the apple cart.

Thats pretty much what I suspected.

However, I don't really know the backgrounds/motives of alot of the Senators. Obviously, some of them particularly the Taoiseachs nominees wanted to get into the Seanad as a springboard to gaining election to the Dail. On the current numbers that is now unlikely. Faced with almost certainly losing their jobs after the next election, as more senior FFers who have lost out will go the Seanad route, are there any that might pull a Joe Behan in the hopes that an Independent will do better??

Also, if a Senator dies, does their respective party sinply nominate to replace them or does the seat remain unfilled??

C

[Defeated Romanticist]

It's the senate. No-one really pays any attention. If the govt got into a sticky situation one of the independents would likely absent himself in return for some preferential treatment.

Cannon should resign in disgrace anyway.

[Odyessus]

Whether the government has a majority in the Seanad is not necessarily as important as it sounds.

Under Article 23 of the Constitution any Bill rejected by the Seanad may become an Act at the wishes of the Dail whether passed by the Seanad or not after 90 days.

Not the best way of legislating of course but does allow for nearly all controversial bills to be passed by the Dail regardless of the Seanad

Important to note that it doesn't apply to Money Bills (ie Finance)! Obvious prob there.

What problem? The Senate can only hold up a Money Bill for 21 days.