Constituency Commission

[Panopticon]

Inspired by my discussion with KingKane on this subject elsewhere.

The government has proposed a Boundary Commission bill. I don't see the need for this legislation, so I assume they mean the Constituency Commission instead. (The Boundary Commission draws local government electoral boundaries. The Constituency Commission draws Dáil constituency boundaries.)

I hope they address the growth of un-proportional 3-seat constituencies. The unfortunate approach to population change in recent years has been to absorb neighbourhoods of the peripheries into the old 3-seat constituencies, rather than to create 5-seat constituencies in the core areas and send the peripheries to different constituencies. The treatment of Meath and Kerry is a good example of this. In each case, the Commission expanded the area of the existing 3-seat constituencies, instead of sending peripheral areas of the county into the logical neighbouring constituency (in Westmeath and Limerick respectively).

This is a bad approach because it leads to the growth of 3-seat constituencies over time, when combined with the clause in the Electoral Act 1997 6 (2) (f) that requires the Commission to pursue continuity of boundaries where possible. As a mathematical exercise, we can see that 5-seat constituencies are only really possible in counties with entitlement to 5 seats or 8 seats, or where two counties are brought together to enjoy those entitlements.

Unfortunately, because Fine Gael benefits from 3-seat constituencies, it probably won't happen.

Another thing that won't happen is a growth in the size of the Dáil. This would undoubtedly improve the quality of Irish governance by increasing the pool of potential front-benchers, as well as improving the proportionality of the current system if combined with the logical result of 4 to 7-seat constituencies. However, the current government has a mandate to change the size of the Dáil in the opposite direction, because Fine Gael ran on a manifesto which used populism to sweeten the medicine of deficit reduction.

So what will happen? They could explicitly allow the Commission to use provisional data from the Census rather than waiting for final results. Hopefully, this wouldn't run into a constitutional challenge.

They could amend the Electoral Act 1997 6 (2) (a) to reduce the size of the Dáil that the Commission creates, from 164-168 seats at present to a smaller number. They can't go as radically as they would like, because they have received advice that 150 is a likely lower limit. Government cannot cut more than 16 Dáil deputies | The Post

In addition, even if one took 150 as the national level, one would still have to manouevre the divergences at local level to ensure that no constituency were drawn up with more than thirty thousand people per TD. That would be constitutionally tricky and they will not want to invite a reprise of Murphy and McGrath v Minister for the Environment and others, about which I will write a follow-up post.

As you can see, the government's free action on this subject is severely constrained by constitution, courts and election promises!

So what do you think will happen?

[RepublicanSocialist1798]

Unfortunately, because Fine Gael benefits from 3-seat constituencies, it probably won't happen.

I'd disagree with that. FG did poorly in a lot of the three seaters in North Dublin (one each only in DNE and DNC and none in DNW).

I'd agree with you about three seat constituencies though - they do tend to favour the larger parties. Ideally the number of seats per constituency should be fixed at a set number (either four or five).

[locke]

Historically, 3-seaters didn't favour FG, although they did in the last election.

FG will be aware that the last election was an anomalously high vote for them and won't want to set up constituencies that could hurt them should they lose 3 or 4 percent of the vote.

BTW I know that the commission is formally independent, but as with the previous government, they won't want to rock the establishment vote too much.

[Stating the Obvious]

The 3-seaters on the northside of dublin city are now verging on farcical and need to be scrapped, regardless of who they favour or don't favour.

The whole North and West of Dublin is a mess, constituency-wise.

[Panopticon]

I'd disagree with that. FG did poorly in a lot of the three seaters in North Dublin (one each only in DNE and DNC and none in DNW).

I'd agree with you about three seat constituencies though - they do tend to favour the larger parties. Ideally the number of seats per constituency should be fixed at a set number (either four or five).

DNE, it was their choice to run one candidate. DNC, an extra seat would have been 50/50 to FG v FF. DNW, they don't have the support even in a 4-seater. Look to the rural constituencies like Roscommon-S Leitrim or Tipperary South.

Sinn Féin is particularly shafted by 3-seat constituencies in recent electoral history, though not in 2011.

[Panopticon]

The 3-seaters on the northside of dublin city are now verging on farcical and need to be scrapped, regardless of who they favour or don't favour.

The whole North and West of Dublin is a mess, constituency-wise.

Yes.

North Dublin City is well-suited to two 5-seaters. Either Dublin Central + Marino/Killester and Dublin NW + the rest of Dublin NC, or a better solution involving Dublin NC + the city centre and Dublin NW + Cabra.

If the point of 3-seaters in North Dublin was to keep FF in and the Shinners out... that war is over forever.

No excuse for tiny 3-seaters in modern Dublin, except maybe to cope with the weird population distribution around Swords.

The same is true for Meath and Longford-Westmeath. No reason for two 3-seaters there. Just give Kells and Oldcastle to Westmeath and make the rest a 5-seater. And Sinn Féin are already in.

[Panopticon]

A note on Murphy and McGrath v Minister for the Environment and others. This case was relevant to both equality of representation across different constituencies and the use of provisional Census data. Catherine Murphy and Finian McGrath believed that provisional results from the 2006 Census rendered the existing constituencies invalid because of extreme disproportionality.

The court found that 2002 constituencies would have been unconstitutional under 2006 Census data, if they were available at the time of the election. (The election itself, however, would have remained constitutional. There was simply a constitutional duty on the Oireachtas to change the boundaries.)

The court also found that provisional numbers are not a valid Census as required by Article 16.2.3 of Bunreacht na hÉireann. This constitutional judgement would preclude the Oireachtas passing a measure to allow any provisional figures to supercede the most recent population as measured by the previous Census. Constituencies must comply with the most recent official population as measured by the Census.

Therefore, it seems that my suggestion that a Constituency Commission bill could permit use of provisional population numbers is null and void. Such a bill would fall to a constitutional challenge: stare decisis, let precedent stand.

What they can do, as was made clear by the court, is to amend section 5 (1) of the Electoral Act 1997 to allow the Commission to start work immediately upon the publication of provisional Census results, and to publish and amend constituencies only after official results are known.

[Henlars67]

The larger the constituencies the better chance of the proportion of the vote relating to the proportion of seats

[Argentarius]

I agree that 3 seaters should be destroyed and here are some figures of FG vote in proportion to seats for each type of constituency (I won't use % of vote overall but I'll average the percentages out):

In 3-seaters FG have 23/45 seats (51% of seats) with 40.5% of the vote (Their following really was immense in Meath and Limerick as well as NW and SW Cork which cancelled out the abomination in Dublin). So the % of votes to seats is 40.5:51 so in other words 4:5.

In 4-seaters FG have 28/64 seats (44%) with 33% of the vote giving them a ratio of votes to seats of 3:4.

In 5-seaters FG have 25/50 seats (50%) with 37.5% of the vote to the votes to seats ratio is again 3:4.

So we see that constituency by constituency 3 seaters aren't very proportionate but in total they seem to be the most proportionate.

[Panopticon]

I agree that 3 seaters should be destroyed and here are some figures of FG vote in proportion to seats for each type of constituency (I won't use % of vote overall but I'll average the percentages out):

In 3-seaters FG have 23/45 seats (51% of seats) with 40.5% of the vote (Their following really was immense in Meath and Limerick as well as NW and SW Cork which cancelled out the abomination in Dublin). So the % of votes to seats is 40.5:51 so in other words 4:5.

In 4-seaters FG have 28/64 seats (44%) with 33% of the vote giving them a ratio of votes to seats of 3:4.

In 5-seaters FG have 25/50 seats (50%) with 37.5% of the vote to the votes to seats ratio is again 3:4.

So we see that constituency by constituency 3 seaters aren't very proportionate but in total they seem to be the most proportionate.

The 2011 election, as a benchmark, has problems.

Practically everyone got a higher "seat bonus" than usual. Why? Because of the proliferation of small independent candidates without a hope of being elected.

This explains why Fine Gael were able to win 76 seats on only 36% of the vote. Huge transfers from no-hope Independents.

If there are proportionally more independents in 5-seaters, that could explain the entirety of that result. From my recollection, Laois-Offaly and Wicklow had the longest ballot papers in the country, due to huge numbers of independents with small vote totals.