Poll suggests SF behind SDLP for first time in 5 years

[Lámh dearg abú]

increasingly irrelevant

How have you come to this conclusion? They maintained three MPs at the general election. The fact that SF is about to sign up to policing illustrates exactly how the SDLP continues to be relevant in nationalist communities, and this was reflected in good council results last year. And what is this rubbish about it being curtains for SF 'too' if they follow the SDLP? How? It wasn't curtains for the former and it won't be for the latter.

In the West Tyrone Constituency where I live, the SDLP lost four councillors and your General Election Candidate Eugene Mc Menamin couldn't even muster 4,000 votes. The SDLP tried to fight the election campaign on the issue of policing and tried to tell us, aided and abbeted by the mainstream media, that the nationalist community supported their stance of accepting the PSNI but the vast majority of people of this community gave the SDLP its answer in no uncertain terms.

Sop forget how you would like it to be and face the reality.

The fact is that for me and for a large section of the nationalist/republican community being asked to support the RUC/PSNI would be akin, I would say, to asking a unionist to support the IRA.

And this is an entirely legitimate postion to hold given the history and continung reality of this rotten little police state.

[memyselfi1]

If that's not an obvious bit of propaganda from the Brits, I don't know what is! It was clearly orchestrated because they are becoming terrified of losing their colonial grip as possible elections near. Of coures the NIO knew the Sindo would be ready and willing to publish it knowing its anti UI stance.

[Lámh dearg abú]

Lamh, in this country (R.O.I.) the Sunday Independent sells more than 1 million copies. Your favourite comic, Daily Ireland, sold a few dozen and as a result is no longer with us. What are your views of the those who have the temerity to read the Sindo regularly?

Chuck, in this country Ireland, the INDO probably has the same levels of readership for the Oirish Sun and other rags. Of Course people have a right to read whatever they want, and who am I to judge anyone who reads such papers, but are you honestly trying to say that the INDO is objective in its editorial postition towards the six counties or Sinn Fein or the Irish language etc- And are you saying that I have no right to criticise the clear neo-unionist anti-republican aganda of the INDO?

[dmc333]

A Newspaper poll (irish news i think it was) a few weeks ago put SDLP nearly 10% behind SF.

I would trust that poll over a NIO one which for all we know could have been carried out by peter hain walking in the assembly chamber and asking SDLP MLAs who theyd vote for.

[factual]

A secret poll carried out by the Northern Ireland Office in the wake of the St Andrew's Agreement earlier this month has shown support for Sinn Fein falling behind the SDLP for the first time in five years.

The poll shows 21 per cent of people voting for the SDLP as compared with 18 for SF. This compares with the 23 per cent support for Sinn Fein and 17 per cent backing for the SDLP in the last Northern Assembly elections in 2002.

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independe...issue_id=14826

Do people think this is accurate, seeing as an Irish News poll put SF 9.7% ahead of SDLP 2 weeks ago?

A number of points arise.

First, its only a single poll. Remember that a poll is a random variable which is distributed randomly around the 'true' opinion in the population. Therefore, if you poll often enough, probability theory says that you will always find one poll in which the SDLP gets a higher share of the vote. This is regardless of the standard error of the poll.

Second, the six county Sinn Fein first preference vote is likely to continue to benefit from a number of initiatiatives in the six counties, in which Sinn Fein compare favourably to the alternative parties. These include Sinn Fein's continuing work in negotiating a peaceful outcome in the peace talks, and Sinn Fein's outreach strategy to unionists, something which is particularly important in the six counties, in terms of improving the levels of trust between the unionists of the six counties and the people of the rest of the island. This is the best way to a United Ireland.

Third, Sinn Fein is an all-island party and can therefore act to integrate infrastructure in the six counties and the rest of the island in a way that appeals to the electorate on both sides of the border.

Fourth, the transfer friendliness of Sinn Fein is likely to rise over time as the slow-release effects of the July 2005 IRA statement, and the September 2005 act of decommissioning, come into play.

Fifth, but of increasing importance, is the left wing analysis that Sinn Fein present to the electorate, which is at least as relevant to the people of the six counties - with its high levels of poverty - as it is to the rest of Ireland. On the big equality issues such as the distribution of income, equal rights for gays, immigrants, women, etc., social protection, language rights, equality in education and healthcare, Sinn Fein present a set of policies that are both progressive and left wing. This agenda is as important in the six ccounties as it is in Dublin.

Sixth, Sinn Fein have a very strong team of workers on the ground; Sinn Fein's organisation is much stronger than that of the alternative parties.

Therefore Sinn Fein can continue to grow in the six counties. Of course there is no room for complacency and success is only available though careful electoral strategy and hard work on the ground.

[JimHacker]

factual - are you a human being or a programme that splurts out sf propoganda. Is there a provo-Borg like in star track which has taken your mind.

Have you ever, ever, in some private moment - for just a little second - ever doubted a single element of the party line - ever?

I think you're hillarious - fair play.

[hiding behind a poster]

Fourth, the transfer friendliness of Sinn Fein is likely to rise over time as the slow-release effects of the July 2005 IRA statement, and the September 2005 act of decommissioning, come into play.

(Yawn). Please, factual - give that line a rest. Even your colleagues in SF are getting bored by your constant parroting of it.

Fifth, but of increasing importance, is the left wing analysis that Sinn Fein present to the electorate, which is at least as relevant to the people of the six counties - with its high levels of poverty - as it is to the rest of Ireland.

Factual, SF's "left-wing analysis" of poverty seeks to keep people in poverty - as their plans for corporation and income tax rises would greatly increase unemployment, worsen job prospects, and undermine public finances - leaving more people in the poverty bracket, with more social welfare requirements, chasing less available money. That's the key reason for the current glass ceiling in their vote.

[hiding behind a poster]

As for the poll itself, its hard to take any Northern Ireland poll seriously, regardless of who carries it out. The people of the North have rightly got a fairly deep-seated aversion to letting strangers know their voting intentions.

[qwertyu]

What a load of nonsense! I haven't seen anything to suggest any SDLP resurgence in this area, never mind anywhere else.

[NickyG]

I would estimate that the current state of affairs, should an election be fought tomorrow, is approx:

DUP 31%
SF 28%
SDLP 17%
UUP 16%

I don't know what the Irish News figures were (anyone?) apart from SF being 10% ahead, but 21% SDLP 18% SF seems way off.