I have been hearing alot people saying that there is a real chance of getting in 2 nationalist MEPs because of Jim Allister.
Below are the results of the last election and there is less than 4,000 between the SDLP and UUP.
Allister, J DUP 175,761 31.9 +3.6 1st count Elected
De Brun, B SF 144,541 26.3 +8.98 1st count Elected
Nicholson, J UUP 91,164 16.6 -1.01 3rd count election
Morgan, M SDLP 87,559 15.9 -12.1
That certainly would be a very interesting outcome. Although, in Northern Ireland terms 4,000 votes is an awful lot. We also need to remember that the SDLP were defending a seat back in 2004.
I can't see Allister keeping his seat or making a serious dent in the DUP machine. The UUP seat might be under threat. But then again, it has been for a considerable amount of time. So the third one will be close contested. Who knows?
"The thing that always annoyed me about traditional Irish historiography was the paradox of its Anglocentrism. People are now prepared, I think, to confront the possibility that many Irish problems are, in a sense, indigenous to the Irish situation." Roy Foster (1989).
With the Unionist vote split three ways it's likely that SF will top the poll this time. I'd place tha chances of that happening at 60:40.
It's possible, although not likely for the SDLP to get the third seat. For this to happen it would require the bulk of the centerist vote transfering to the SDLP & the Unionist vote failing to reconstitute efficiently. I'd put the likelyhood of this happening at 35%:65%.
I'd be very surprised if Nationalists outpoll Unionists.
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For the record, by the final count the UUP outpolled the SDLP by 38,500 votes.Originally Posted by dmc444
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Exactly, if 4,000 votes is a lot, then what is this? There will not be a second nationalist seat in NI ever! If the demographics for that happened, then you would be looking at a United Ireland, and the question for the EU elections would be how to re-draw the "northern ireland" and "north west" constituencies.
As for PSF topping the polls, in their dreams! Any support that has ebbed away from the DUP is at least matched by the exodus from PSF in parts of the country. I'd say the gap between the DUP and PSF will be bigger in 2009 than it was in 2004.
I'm not sure how logical your analysis is to be honest.
It's certainly possible that SF will top the poll. If we use the last elections in NI as our reference point the difference between the DUP & SF was around 27,000 votes. The difference between the two blocks was roughly 41,000 votes. This time there are two things helping SF - the TUV & the gradual decline in the Unionist vote & the gradual increase in the Nationalist one. It's likely that the Unionist numerical majority has been reduced by around 7,500 since 2007. Now it's possible that SF will lose votes - but they don't have a creditable alternative that is more Nationalist than them. By contrast the DUP have the TUV to worry about. The TUV won't win a seat - but they may well get around 30,000 votes. If they do that, SF will probably top the poll.
As I explained, it doesn't require an absolute Nationalist majority for the SDLP to get the third seat. It simply requires them getting the bulk of the centerist votes in the later counts & for the Unionist redistribution between three parties to be inefficient. If you're genuinely interested I'll come up with some figures for you.
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There is no evidence of support having "ebbed away" from Sinn Féin in the 6 counties.
RIRA not in my name-Traitors to Ireland MMcGuinness; People are entitled to cultural & social equality MLMcDonald; We have a length to go understanding unionism GAdams
I certainly would be interested in some figures. IMHO when it comes down to the third seat it will be between TUV, SDLP and UUP. Nicholson could lose it this time. The SDLP has an outside chance, but Alban is more likely to eat into the SF vote at the first count. It all depends on the turn-out IMHO. Chances are the UUP somehow holds on to it. Particularly with transfers from TUV and Dodds. Some of the Alliance and Green vote might also go to Nicholson. So we probably end up none the wiser and without any proper representation in the EU parliament once again.
"The thing that always annoyed me about traditional Irish historiography was the paradox of its Anglocentrism. People are now prepared, I think, to confront the possibility that many Irish problems are, in a sense, indigenous to the Irish situation." Roy Foster (1989).
Trefor1.1 i think you know your stuff when it comes to elections in the 6 cos.Assuming that there will be a westminster election in 2010 can you give me your predictions for North Belfast, Upper Bann East Derry Foyle and South Down.
Foyle & South Down are similar in that they've gor a sizeable Unionist minority. If push comes to shove, a part of that vote is available to the SDLP. So I'd see the SDLP retaining both, although with a reduced majority.
East Derry - DUP again, although SF will probably outpoll the SDLP this time & possibly the UUP as well.
Upper Bann - DUP again. Again SF might pass the UUP & come in second.
North Belfast - DUP once more. This is one GE too early for SF. The Unionist / Nationalist balance is fast approaching parity here, but the Nationalist split is more even than the Unionist one. I'd expect SF to have a better than reasonable chance in the next GE if that's in 2014 / 2015.
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