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About LinkBacksExcellent - good to hear. Lets hope that Sinn Féin can obtain an MP from this constituency.Originally Posted by KBK
Excellent - good to hear. Lets hope that Sinn Féin can obtain an MP from this constituency.
RIRA not in my name-Traitors to Ireland MMcGuinness; People are entitled to cultural & social equality MLMcDonald; We have a length to go understanding unionism GAdams
Agree, 7% is quite high. I would have said 5% probably. Also think both SF and DUP will be elected on the first count.
"The thing that always annoyed me about traditional Irish historiography was the paradox of its Anglocentrism. People are now prepared, I think, to confront the possibility that many Irish problems are, in a sense, indigenous to the Irish situation." Roy Foster (1989).
There is nothing to suggest that Durkan's vote is collapsing. In the last Assembly elections he romped home basically. Neither do SF have a heavy hitter there at the moment and Mitchel went to South Antrim.
South Down is a complex one IMHO. Ritchie as a minister is expected to do well. Jim Wells always does his leg work. No idea who the UUP will run with as Nesbitt has left. Ruane is disliked and has had a bad press as the education minister. Also, the fact that she was parachuted in there during the last elections caused resentment. There's also some dissent activity there I believe. But it will be an interesting contest. The last time everyone expected Eddie to stand down but he did his thing once more. Now it is up to Ritchie to carry can. IMHO SF do not expect to win this.
But the next Westminster election will be very interesting!
"The thing that always annoyed me about traditional Irish historiography was the paradox of its Anglocentrism. People are now prepared, I think, to confront the possibility that many Irish problems are, in a sense, indigenous to the Irish situation." Roy Foster (1989).
One thing you have to remember about this election is the unionist vote is split in alot of ways now, the Alliance party are running this time which could take a few % of the UUP and there is TUV which will take a few % off the DUP.
Jim Nicholson defeated Martin Morgan last time because of DUP transfers but my point is that alot of DUP voters could give Jim Allister there 2nd preference and if enough SF voters give their 2nd prefs to Alban Maginess he could get enough to unseat Nicholson.
'A defeatist attitude now would surely lead to defeat, it primarly a question of whether we have confidence in ourselves and the dilligence and determination of our people,We can't opt out of the future.' Sean Lemass (1965)
If Allister is coming out as anti-DUP then voters for Dodds will be less likely to transfer. But IMHO any scenario will result in a close contest for the third place. And that has always been the case.
"The thing that always annoyed me about traditional Irish historiography was the paradox of its Anglocentrism. People are now prepared, I think, to confront the possibility that many Irish problems are, in a sense, indigenous to the Irish situation." Roy Foster (1989).
Well, Gilliland got 6.6% last time.
I was going on that more than anything.
Poni welwch chi hynt y gwynt a'r glaw?
Poni welwch chi'r deri'n ymdaraw?
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