How the Provos 'sold out'

[pogon]

[quote=Trefor1.1;1293185]

Don't you accept that the North is likely to have a Nationalist majority in the forseeable future, & that this simple fact will alter the dynamics of Northern politics merle?

This is not something that anyone knows with any degree of certainty.

You quote the figures for the demographic background of school students, but don't include those of no religion. Nearly all of these go to State, e.g. 'Protestant' schools.

The surge in the Catholic birthrate has stopped, and what will happen beyond the medium term future is anyone's guess.

The future is unknowable. For all we know in 50 years time Northern Ireland may be no more sectarian than present day Liverpool. We also don't know future immigration trends to Northern Ireland, and how any future immigrants would vote in a border poll.

[Trefor1.1]

[quote=pogon;1293201]

This is not something that anyone knows with any degree of certainty.

You quote the figures for the demographic background of school students, but don't include those of no religion. Nearly all of these go to State, e.g. 'Protestant' schools.

The surge in the Catholic birthrate has stopped, and what will happen beyond the medium term future is anyone's guess.

The future is unknowable. For all we know in 50 years time Northern Ireland may be no more sectarian than present day Liverpool. We also don't know future immigration trends to Northern Ireland, and how any future immigrants would vote in a border poll.

You can look at any figures you like & they tell the same story. Try the 2001 census - that's the most comprehensive.

The baby boom is over - but you havr more Catholics of child bearing age & it's highly likely that the Catholic fertility is still higher than the Protestant one. You're clutching at straws.

[merle haggard]

[quote=Trefor1.1;1293185]

Don't you accept that the North is likely to have a Nationalist majority in the forseeable future, & that this simple fact will alter the dynamics of Northern politics merle?

theres a possibility but absoltely no certainty of a small demographic rise in the size of the catholic population at some point in the future . however given the fact a sizable proportion of northern catholics dont want unity with the south for a wide variety of reasons to call it a nationalist majority is somewhat misleading , in fact wrong.
the dynmaics of northern politics will also not be altered , as the dynamic which underpins it is an acceptance accrooss the board that the Irish people have no right to unity anyway

[Trefor1.1]

[quote=merle haggard;1293223]

theres a possibility but absoltely no certainty of a small demographic rise in the size of the catholic population at some point in the future . however given the fact a sizable proportion of northern catholics dont want unity with the south for a wide variety of reasons to call it a nationalist majority is somewhat misleading , in fact wrong.
the dynmaics of northern politics will also not be altered , as the dynamic which underpins it is an acceptance accrooss the board that the Irish people have no right to unity anyway

You don't need changes in demographics to give you a Catholic majority in fifteen or twenty years - the continuation of the present ones will do just fine.

I accept that I use the term Nationalist loosely - as most people do. But the question of unity will eventually be out of the hands of the Unionist community.

[merle haggard]

[quote=Trefor1.1;1293210]

You can look at any figures you like & they tell the same story. Try the 2001 census - that's the most comprehensive.

The baby boom is over - but you havr more Catholics of child bearing age & it's highly likely that the Catholic fertility is still higher than the Protestant one. You're clutching at straws.

no it isnt , and even sinn fein themselves have dismissed that idea . Its own website has put forward the view that as regards numbers speculation that the figures 'remain the subject of debate, and there are some predictions that Catholic population growth will level off in line with trends elsewhere in Europe.'

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]The falling birth rate may undermine the recent demographic shift in the North's population, and the prediction of a nationalist majority in the Six Counties in less than 25 years appears more uncertain. [/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]

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[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]so even they dont hold that opinion anymore despite being optimistic at the possibility before . Gerry adams has dismissed the idea also and emphasises the necessity for unionist enggement as opposed to putting faith in the numbers game .[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT]

this echoes what garret fitzgerald put forward in an article to the Irish tims on the very same subject .

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[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]the 2001 figure for northern catholics who wouldnt vote for unity with the south is also in and around 30% in social attitude surveys highlighted by Malachi ODoherty and Dr Graham Gudgin . Add to that the fact that the republican seperatist political position has been pretty much eradicated and replaced with constitutional nationalism , a form of politics that has always sought to reach an accomodation within the union as opposed to ending it , and the demographics argument remains as obsolete now as it ever was .

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[merle haggard]

[quote=Trefor1.1;1293259]

You don't need changes in demographics to give you a Catholic majority in fifteen or twenty years - the continuation of the present ones will do just fine.

I accept that I use the term Nationalist loosely - as most people do. But the question of unity will eventually be out of the hands of the Unionist community.

but the present ones are unmistakably tailing off as sinn fein themslves have highlighted , along with others . It remains within the hands of the unionist community , which is why we have a sinn fein unionist engagement initiative which believes it can convert them away from unionism and that thats the only way a united ireland can come about.

[Trefor1.1]

merle - I've F All to do with PSF - & I'm surprised that you see them as some sort of experts on these matters.

You've got a wealth of evidence that Protestants will shortly be a minority - they're already a minority in all age groups under 31. They're also a minority in schools - between 51% and 57% are Catholic, and between 40% and 46% are Protestant - & there's little or no evidence of a 'tailing off' in Catholic numbers.

[merle haggard]

merle - I've F All to do with PSF - & I'm surprised that you see them as some sort of experts on these matters.

You've got a wealth of evidence that Protestants will shortly be a minority - they're already a minority in all age groups under 31. They're also a minority in schools - between 51% and 57% are Catholic, and between 40% and 46% are Protestant - & there's little or no evidence of a 'tailing off' in Catholic numbers.

trev sinn fein are only agreeing with the experts , as I do . the vast majority of statisticians regard the claim that catholics will outnumber protestants in the north at any time in the forseeable future as highly unlikely . The catholic growth rate is steadily falling and not rising and that has been a consistent trend in all census since the 70s and one thats very likely to continue on its downward spiral. Furthermore around 12% of northern catholics regard thier identity as British , with 30% according to a 2005 survey opposed to unification .

[ArtyQueing]

trev sinn fein are only agreeing with the experts , as I do . the vast majority of statisticians regard the claim that catholics will outnumber protestants in the north at any time in the forseeable future as highly unlikely . The catholic growth rate is steadily falling and not rising and that has been a consistent trend in all census since the 70s and one thats very likely to continue on its downward spiral. Furthermore around 12% of northern catholics regard thier identity as British , with 30% according to a 2005 survey opposed to unification .

Which survey was that Merle?

[merle haggard]

Which survey was that Merle?

NILT , Northern ireland life and times survey , a policy research unit run in conjunction with QUB