The Provisionals have hegemonised anti-establishment politics in Northern Ireland for a quarter-century. They are likely to do so for a while yet. But their hold will now begin to slacken in the political cross-currents ahead. A whole series of episodes in 20th century Irish politics has seen revolutionaries in military terms, who were not at all revolutionary in social terms quickly evolve into more or less ordinary bourgeois and petty-bourgeois politicians once they move into conventional politics.
This is the well-trodden path that the Provisionals or a section of them are taking if they really have “gone political”. They are narrower than all their predecessors emerging into bourgeois politics out of the Republican chrysalis, because they are primarily based on the Six Counties Catholics, not on support all across Ireland. Individuals who will form an Irish revolutionary socialist movement in the tradition of James Connolly may come out of the Provisionals. But to look to the movement as a whole for good things for working-class socialism would be to engage in the most foolish wishful thinking.The great need in Northern Ireland is for an independent working-class socialist organisation – preaching not the vapidities of the Provisionals’ “New Ireland” but a Workers’ Republic, preaching workers’ unity as the way to it, and advocating as the basis of immediate working-class unity, a democratic political settlement of the dispute between the communities, which can only be a federal Ireland.



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