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  1. #1
    diy01 diy01 is offline
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    Will TUV make gains if the DUP agrees to a new deal with Sinn Féin?

    It seems the Stormont talks are getting closer and closer to producing a new deal. If the DUP agrees to a standalone Irish Language Act and/or same sex marriage, will there be a split in the DUP, with Jim Allister's Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) making gains?

    Jim Wells (one of the few still-active MLAs who was elected in 1998) is on record saying he will split away if gay marriage is ever introduced to Northern Ireland. One wonders if other ultra conservative DUP MLAs such as Mervyn Storey would be prepared to jump ship as well.

    I expect the TUV will gain a modest amount of votes if the DUP ends up softening its stance on the Irish language or the same sex marriage issue, although it has limited room to grow. What do you think?

    "DUP faces split threat if party agrees to gay marriage demand by Sinn Fein"
    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/n...-35640160.html

    Theresa May urges 'one final push' on Stormont talks - BBC News
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  2. #2
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    I think the DUP are out of touch with a majority of Unionists on same sex marriage (see polls). About 25% of their MLAs are members of the Free Presbyterian Church, compared to perhaps 1% of the NI population. I think sooner or later it will be legalised in NI, particularly if Labour win the GE with a reasonable majority.
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  3. #3
    hollandia hollandia is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by diy01 View Post
    It seems the Stormont talks are getting closer and closer to producing a new deal. If the DUP agrees to a standalone Irish Language Act and/or same sex marriage, will there be a split in the DUP, with Jim Allister's Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) making gains?

    Jim Wells (one of the few still-active MLAs who was elected in 1998) is on record saying he will split away if gay marriage is ever introduced to Northern Ireland. One wonders if other ultra conservative DUP MLAs such as Mervyn Storey would be prepared to jump ship as well.

    I expect the TUV will gain a modest amount of votes if the DUP ends up softening its stance on the Irish language or the same sex marriage issue, although it has limited room to grow. What do you think?

    "DUP faces split threat if party agrees to gay marriage demand by Sinn Fein"
    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/n...-35640160.html

    Theresa May urges 'one final push' on Stormont talks - BBC News
    In short - no. They won't make any gains. Outside of Jim Allister, they have no one of any note or talent. And their message is unremittingly negative. Not even the dup are unremittingly negative. And when it comes down to it, they won't split the unionist vote.
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  4. #4
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    They only have 28 seats so they will need 2 from other parties to vote with them to block it. TUV leader Jim Allister says he will do so, and DUP sources indicate a conservative UUP MLA would do so aswell.
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  5. #5
    diy01 diy01 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    I think the DUP are out of touch with a majority of Unionists on same sex marriage (see polls). About 25% of their MLAs are members of the Free Presbyterian Church, compared to perhaps 1% of the NI population. I think sooner or later it will be legalised in NI, particularly if Labour win the GE with a reasonable majority.
    I agree, but will it come at the cost of resignations by some DUP MLAs, MPs or councillors? I think it will.
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  6. #6
    Catalpast Catalpast is online now
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    Surely the best way to decide the issue is by plebiscite?

    - and with equal coverage/air time to both sides of the argument

    - and no intimidation

    - unlike the Farce we had down here....
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  7. #7
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Catalpast View Post
    Surely the best way to decide the issue is by plebiscite?

    - and with equal coverage/air time to both sides of the argument

    - and no intimidation

    - unlike the Farce we had down here....
    Maybe
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  8. #8
    Windowshopper Windowshopper is offline
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    No, the DUP will make the usual argument that a vote for Jim Alistair is a vote for Michele O'Neill and this time they might not just be whipping up irrational fears.
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  9. #9
    between the bridges between the bridges is offline
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    Probably not, tbh it depends on what the deal is...

    Taken at face value, the positions of Sinn Fein and the DUP are irreconcilable. Mary Lou McDonald's party has insisted on a standalone Irish Language Act which Mrs Foster has ruled out in no uncertain terms.

    But a fudge that would give both cover has long been under consideration, with civil servants reportedly tasked with drawing up several possible concoctions which would enable the leaders of both parties to save face.

    Speculation at Stormont yesterday centred on the possibility of three separate Bills on the Irish language, Ulster-Scots and Culture and Respect. They would be brought separately to the Assembly but would later be fused into one Act. Sinn Fein could argue that it had bagged a win on its red line issue. The DUP could maintain it was a hybrid Cultural Act.


    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/n...-36597178.html
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  10. #10
    hollandia hollandia is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by between the bridges View Post
    Probably not, tbh it depends on what the deal is...

    Taken at face value, the positions of Sinn Fein and the DUP are irreconcilable. Mary Lou McDonald's party has insisted on a standalone Irish Language Act which Mrs Foster has ruled out in no uncertain terms.

    But a fudge that would give both cover has long been under consideration, with civil servants reportedly tasked with drawing up several possible concoctions which would enable the leaders of both parties to save face.

    Speculation at Stormont yesterday centred on the possibility of three separate Bills on the Irish language, Ulster-Scots and Culture and Respect. They would be brought separately to the Assembly but would later be fused into one Act. Sinn Fein could argue that it had bagged a win on its red line issue. The DUP could maintain it was a hybrid Cultural Act.


    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/n...-36597178.html
    This is a problem. These should be viewed as a victory for everyone - as normalcy should be. Fudging it only kicks the can down the road. (I'm well aware that Stormont is choc full of world class can kickers).
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