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  1. #1
    The Eagle of the Ninth The Eagle of the Ninth is offline

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    BREXIT: The Starters Gun for Irish Reunification?

    Dave Cameron has fast-tracked the date of the UK's BREXIT Referendum to June 2016. Irrespective of the result, the UK's relationship with the EU will be altered, as Cameron seeks to negotiate changes to Treaties, and he has not ruled out quitting the EU altogether if these don't go well. The Dáil's Joint Committee on EU Affairs has called for Ireland to have a formal role in these negotiations, because under the GFA, the Republic has a right to be consulted on any matter affecting NI and its constitutional arrangements.

    Should Britain vote Yes, then NI would be hit harder than almost anywhere else. BREXIT would have both a politically and economically destablising effect on NI. It would also have serious consequences for the Border Counties of the Republic, not to menton the Irish economy as whole, whose major export partner is the UK. European integration put the conditons in place for the GFA, as Ireland and the UK were already becoming more convergent through the EU. Business and employment, worker and student mobility,NI's access to the Single Market, CAP, structural funds and peace support would all go or be severely curtailed. A return to Border controls would equate to repartition.

    Even if the UK votes No, it has signalled its willingness to pull out or redefine its place within the EU in a way which is not likely to favour NI. David McWilliams, the celebrated Irish economist, has an interesting article here in which discusses how the growing realignment of the UK and EU, ( as well as the possible break-up of the UK through a Scottish Referendum) could result in NI making a very quick decison on where its best interests lie. Demographic changes in NI mean there will be no sentimental loyalty to an increasingly remote and detached UK

    United Ireland may not be as remote as it seems | David McWilliams

    McWilliams also points out that when change happens, it happens all at once.
    Co-incidentally, the Belfast Telegraph has also addressed this issue today, speculating on whether these shifts could be the starter for a renewed drive towards Irish reunification.

    Why the EU vote could drive Catholic unionists towards Sinn Fein and a united Ireland - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk

    My gut tells me that if the question comes down to the money, honey, we are going to see PUL"unicorns" in greater numbers than you could shake a stick at. The middle-class business sector is loyal to business, first and foremost. Woudn't that be a turn up for the books?
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  2. #2
    Ratio Et Fides Ratio Et Fides is offline
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    Most Unionists, the vast majority, are opposed to the EU. I would also guess that a significant amount of Republicans are as well. The reason that UKIP have done a lot crapper than they could have in Northern Ireland is that they have attracted into them utter psycho Loyalists. It true though that in Scotland, Wales and now to some extent Northern Ireland the EU is more popular than in England due to the fact that it has been doing stuff that it was London's duty to do. However leaving the EU will be massively helpful for the UK economically, freeing up are ability to trade across the world as well as getting rid of the massive bill that Brussell's vampires off the UK. I in my pessesism have been believing that Cameron especially as our masters in Washington are agin a Brexit is lying about a referendum however if we do see the UK leave than it would make me strongly inclined to vote No in a border poll as long as the ROI remains within Brussel's fist. I would love to see the ROI out of the EU too.
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  3. #3
    The Eagle of the Ninth The Eagle of the Ninth is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ratio Et Fides View Post
    Most Unionists, the vast majority, are opposed to the EU. I would also guess that a significant amount of Republicans are as well. The reason that UKIP have done a lot crapper than they could have in Northern Ireland is that they have attracted into them utter psycho Loyalists. It true though that in Scotland, Wales and now to some extent Northern Ireland the EU is more popular than in England due to the fact that it has been doing stuff that it was London's duty to do. However leaving the EU will be massively helpful for the UK economically, freeing up are ability to trade across the world as well as getting rid of the massive bill that Brussell's vampires off the UK. I in my pessesism have been believing that Cameron especially as our masters in Washington are agin a Brexit is lying about a referendum however if we do see the UK leave than it would make me strongly inclined to vote No in a border poll as long as the ROI remains within Brussel's fist. I would love to see the ROI out of the EU too.
    That's not what the business sector or NI agriculture thinks ... or their equivalent in the rest of the UK, for that matter.

    It would be a disaster for NI. However, leaving that aside "all that is solid melts into air." The UK is making moves which will inevitable see NI disporportionately affected by the lack of certainity over the UK'scontinued presence in Europe. Watch this space
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  4. #4
    statsman statsman is offline
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    I'm confused; I thought demographics were going to bring about a UI. Now it's BREXIT. What's next week's catalyst going to be?
    Last edited by statsman; 18th August 2015 at 11:32 AM.
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  5. #5
    Thomas_.. Thomas_.. is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by statsman View Post
    I'm confused; I thought demographics ere going to bring about a UI. Now it's BREXIT. What's next week's catalyst going to be?
    The desperate will always find something to cling on, as long as they´ve not drown yet.
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  6. #6
    between the bridges between the bridges is offline
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  7. #7
    Thomas_.. Thomas_.. is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ratio Et Fides View Post
    Most Unionists, the vast majority, are opposed to the EU. I would also guess that a significant amount of Republicans are as well. The reason that UKIP have done a lot crapper than they could have in Northern Ireland is that they have attracted into them utter psycho Loyalists. It true though that in Scotland, Wales and now to some extent Northern Ireland the EU is more popular than in England due to the fact that it has been doing stuff that it was London's duty to do. However leaving the EU will be massively helpful for the UK economically, freeing up are ability to trade across the world as well as getting rid of the massive bill that Brussell's vampires off the UK. I in my pessesism have been believing that Cameron especially as our masters in Washington are agin a Brexit is lying about a referendum however if we do see the UK leave than it would make me strongly inclined to vote No in a border poll as long as the ROI remains within Brussel's fist. I would love to see the ROI out of the EU too.
    Perfect, just bring Ireland under British domination again. Your Republican friends on here would love the very thought of it, surely.
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  8. #8
    Glaucon Glaucon is offline

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    It's unlikely that Britain will leave, and even if it does, most Unionists dislike the EU. If the economy tanks on the back of EU exit, perhaps - but ''no surrender'' isn't easily dispensed with.
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  9. #9
    former wesleyan former wesleyan is online now
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    Quiet day in the Glens.
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  10. #10
    Thomas_.. Thomas_.. is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Eagle of the Ninth View Post
    Vastly different economic realities have pitted the north against the south, with France not too sure which way to go. Germany has indicated that it has had enough and intends to lead Europe in a more Germanic direction – which is fine for Germany.
    Such an Expression has not been made public in any media here in Germany, ergo, it is just his own "conclusion" in context to the "Play" of the Greek crisis, worsened by the Syriza government since they came to power in January this year.

    The EU could well split between a core zone around Germany, Austria, Poland, Slovakia, the Benelux and France, with a second Mediterranean group headed up by Italy and the Iberian countries.
    Poland isn´t a member of the Eurozone yet and what one notices from the News coming in from Poland, the population there is rather not much in favour of taking the Euro to replace their present national currency. The Greek crisis and the way it was handled, has left some impressions on the Polish and their MP has the best insight into these past negotiations than anyone else in his country.

    ...
    Armed with that idea, let’s look out now from the vantage point of 2016 and ask whether we might have a united Ireland before any of us thought possible or (maybe even) desirable. Might we stumble into a united Ireland in the same way we stumbled, quite unexpectedly, out of the United Kingdom?
    ...

    Even given the fact that 23 per cent of parents of infants declared themselves as having no religion, we seem to be en route to a united Ireland.


    It may happen much quicker than you think in the context of a wider EU and UK realignment. If the UK, as we know it, were to break up, the willingness of England without Scotland to prop up the North may well change. And according to the Belfast Agreement, if they want a United Ireland, we can’t stop them.


    Now wouldn’t that be something for the 1916 heroes to digest? A Northern Ireland that wanted reunification and a Republic that is petrified by the prospect?
    Who says that those 23% parents of infants with no religions would automatically be in favour of a UI? That´s all but his own theory and spinning of developments and decisions they could happen, but also may not happen.

    The last line in his entry sounds a bit too exaggerated for my taste.
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