Snap UK election and the potential impact on NI

[Keith-M]

The BBC news is leading with a potential autum election in the UK. What would be the impact in NI should this go ahead? Will the DUP and SF consolidate their positions and could the SDLP, and more likely the UUP be wiped out completly? How would a new less pragmatic Unionist party do?

For the DUP, there could be some interesting changes. This might be the perfect opportunity for IPJ to take over in North Antrim. Will McCrea stay on in South Antrim? Almost all the DUP seats are locks, but are the rumours of disquiet in the speed of the deal with SF going to impact support and cause problems in more marginal seats like North Belfast? Could deals be done with the UUP to take the SDLP seat in South Belfast or the SF one in Fermanagh/South Tyrone?

The UUP seem to be in terminal decline. They only have one seat in North Down and that could come under pressure from the DUP, based on the more recent assembly election. Will the DUP stand aside here in return fo a clear run in South Belfast and F/ST?

SF has been making gains in almost every election in NI, but this election could potentially be a repeat of the one in the Republic, with a potential loss on the cards. Four of their five seats are locks, but an agreed Unionist candidate in Fermanagh/South Tyrone could sewe Gildernew being squeezed. There may however be better news in South Down, especially if McGrady stands down.

For the SDLP this could be a rough election. McDonnell looks to be in serious trouble in South Belfast, even if there is no agreed unionist candidate. The SDLP will need McGrady to stand again to be sure of holding South Down. The piece of one good news is that Durrkan seems to have seen off McLaughlin in Foyle.

The election may come too soon for Jim Allister's potential new party and almost all the minor parties are out of contention for a seat.

[Trefor]

For once I agree with you on most of this.

Gildernew would not be likely to win if there was an agreed Unionist candidate, neither would McDonnell - although he'd have a better than even chance if there were two candidates. In the longer term it's a Nationalist seat though - the demographics here are horrible for the Unionists - worse than anywhere else in the North.

McGrady or no McGrady I suspect that SF will outpoll the SDLP in South Down amongst Nationalists, but Unionist tactical voting will ensure that the SDLP get elected. Durkan won't need the tactical votes, but they're there for him.

North Down will be close, I suspect that the DUP might just edge it.

Belfast North is getting interesting. I don't think that SF will win if the election is held this year, but it'll be close if it's held in three years time. After that, it's probably a Nationalist seat.

[the hatchetman]

For once I agree with you on most of this.

Gildernew would not be likely to win if there was an agreed Unionist candidate, neither would McDonnell - although he'd have a better than even chance if there were two candidates. In the longer term it's a Nationalist seat though - the demographics here are horrible for the Unionists - worse than anywhere else in the North.

McGrady or no McGrady I suspect that SF will outpoll the SDLP in South Down amongst Nationalists, but Unionist tactical voting will ensure that the SDLP get elected. Durkan won't need the tactical votes, but they're there for him.

North Down will be close, I suspect that the DUP might just edge it.

Belfast North is getting interesting. I don't think that SF will win if the election is held this year, but it'll be close if it's held in three years time. After that, it's probably a Nationalist seat.

the word of trefor.... no really, this guy is good

[stevey2005]

For once I agree with you on most of this.

Gildernew would not be likely to win if there was an agreed Unionist candidate, neither would McDonnell - although he'd have a better than even chance if there were two candidates. In the longer term it's a Nationalist seat though - the demographics here are horrible for the Unionists - worse than anywhere else in the North.

McGrady or no McGrady I suspect that SF will outpoll the SDLP in South Down amongst Nationalists, but Unionist tactical voting will ensure that the SDLP get elected. Durkan won't need the tactical votes, but they're there for him.

North Down will be close, I suspect that the DUP might just edge it.

Belfast North is getting interesting. I don't think that SF will win if the election is held this year, but it'll be close if it's held in three years time. After that, it's probably a Nationalist seat.

There is over 5,000 votes a difference between Nigel Dodds and Gerry Kelly in 2005. I belive this is a safe unionist seat.

Durkan should hold onto Foyle, even with a 1,000 or so unionsit votes.

A unionsit pact would ensure South Belfast and Fermanagh and South Tyrone fall back into unionist hands.

South Down will be hard to call, with unionist support the SDLP should hold on.

[Trefor]

[

There is over 5,000 votes a difference between Nigel Dodds and Gerry Kelly in 2005. I belive this is a safe unionist seat.

Yes - but things were far closer in this year's Assembly elections.

Unlike Wales, people in Northern Ireland don't vote differently in different types of elections.

I reckon that Dodds will win next time, but after that it becomes a Nationalist seat.

[factual]

Sinn Féin are looking to take Foyle and South Down off the SDLP and to hold all existing seats. The SDLP will lose South Belfast and it will return to unionist representation.

[dubsthcentralboy]

Sinn Féin are looking to take Foyle and South Down off the SDLP and to hold all existing seats. The SDLP will lose South Belfast and it will return to unionist representation.

I expect South Belfast to go back in to Unionist hands, of course, Sinn Féin will run a candidate and split the vote.

The SDLP are very safe in Both Foyle and South Down.

[factual]

Sinn Féin are looking to take Foyle and South Down off the SDLP and to hold all existing seats. The SDLP will lose South Belfast and it will return to unionist representation.

I expect South Belfast to go back in to Unionist hands, of course, Sinn Féin will run a candidate and split the vote.

The SDLP are very safe in Both Foyle and South Down.

SF is certainly able to take SD and in Foyle don't underestimate Martina Anderson.

By the way who are SDLP running for South Down?

[factual]

Also watch the swing from SDLP to SF; it will continue as Sinn Féins share of the vote will go up at their expense. And expect no problems for SF from the dissident republicans either.

[dubsthcentralboy]

Sinn Féin are looking to take Foyle and South Down off the SDLP and to hold all existing seats. The SDLP will lose South Belfast and it will return to unionist representation.

I expect South Belfast to go back in to Unionist hands, of course, Sinn Féin will run a candidate and split the vote.

The SDLP are very safe in Both Foyle and South Down.

SF is certainly able to take SD and in Foyle don't underestimate Martina Anderson.

By the way who are SDLP running for South Down?

I expect Eddie McGrady will run again in South Down. Anderson doesn't have a chance in Folye, Durkan saw off the SF challenge comfortably last time.

Will SF split the vote in South Belfast and hand the seat to Unionists or give the SDLP a straight-run?