Poll Results On Future Of NI

[Jim236]

The Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2006 results have been published showing people's opinion in the North on the future of NI.

The full results can be seen here: http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2006/Polit.../FUTURENI.html.

Support for a United Ireland is at 23% while support for the North remaining in the UK is 42%, and full independence for the North at 4%.

The results have also been posted on Everything Ulster which has a table showing the trend over the past decade - http://www.everythingulster.com/blog...titudes_update

It seems support for a United Ireland is slowly growing while the opposite is the case for the North remaining part of the UK.

[st333ve]

Hmm a lot of mixed mesages here i see.

By clicking the age group there seems to me massive support for unity amongst the below 34 year olds, however the massive support from the elderly to remain in the UK outweighs this.

British nationality is falling and irish nationality is up.

I have always said i have little faith in these polls due to the extremely small scale of them and political suspicions, so i wont really say whats good or bad for the future.

Although the graph does show support for republicanism growing steadily and obviously were not at the point to have a referendum, i do see it as slightly encouraging especially as we havent produced a unity paper to the NI public yet.

Still when you think about it, can polling less than 1% of the public really be a good idea and what purpose do these polls really have?

The apparent majority consent must sound great to unionists, however the atmosphere in a referendum would give results a lot differently.

Early days, the political landscape is shifting lets see what happens over the next few years.........

[Cloigeann]

The Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2006 results have been published showing people's opinion in the North on the future of NI.

The full results can be seen here: http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2006/Polit.../FUTURENI.html.

Support for a United Ireland is at 23% while support for the North remaining in the UK is 42%, and full independence for the North at 4%.

The results have also been posted on Everything Ulster which has a table showing the trend over the past decade - http://www.everythingulster.com/blog...titudes_update

It seems support for a United Ireland is slowly growing while the opposite is the case for the North remaining part of the UK.

These tiny polls are unrepresentative, most people in the place didn't even know it was held. The only true poll would be one that has been announced maybe like a month in advance and one that is worth taking like a government referendum.

[Cloigeann]

But none the less, anybody who's good at math want to give a date for a 51% vote for a united Ireland if those current trends as claimed by this poll hold?

[Keith-M]

At the time of partition Unionists outnumbered Nationalists by appprox 2-1. 85 years on and the ratios have barely changed. Is it any wonder the "united Ireland" pipedream is as far away today? The significant thing is the fact that people are less entrenched and that other options and "don't knows" (possibly "don't cares") are increasing. With co-operation with this country on issues of common concern and as national borders become increasingly meaningless within the EU, expect this number to climb even further.

[Catalpa]

I don't believe that just 23% support Irish Unity.

Both SF & SDLP support a United Ireland and together poll around 42%.

Like most polls in the North to be read with caution.

[Keith-M]

I don't believe that just 23% support Irish Unity.

Both SF & SDLP support a United Ireland and together poll around 42%.

Like most polls in the North to be read with caution.

It is a fatal flaw for anyone to use party support in NI, as a guide to how support for the "national question" pans out., given the sectarian nature of NI politics. There are many supporters of the SDLP and even SF who don't aspire to "Irish unity", at least in the forseeable future. Equally there are people who vote for the Unionist parties, who would not be averse to an independent NI.

Let us not forget that in 1998 the UUP wanted a referendum on the status of NI to run the same day as the Assembly electiions. In so doing they hoped to maximise the Unionist vote by dragging out the "Garden Centre Unionists" who don't normally vote. The DUP supported the idea, as indeed did SF/IRA who believed that a poll would raise debate on the issue.

However the SDLP (then the biggest nationalist party) blocked the idea, knowing that a poll would show the ratio of pro union to pro "united Ireland" people had barely changed in three quarters of a century.

[the hatchetman]

I don't believe that just 23% support Irish Unity.

Both SF & SDLP support a United Ireland and together poll around 42%.

Like most polls in the North to be read with caution.

It is a fatal flaw for anyone to use party support in NI, as a guide to how support for the "national question" pans out., given the sectarian nature of NI politics. There are many supporters of the SDLP and even SF who don't aspire to "Irish unity", at least in the forseeable future. Equally there are people who vote for the Unionist parties, who would not be averse to an independent NI.

Let us not forget that in 1998 the UUP wanted a referendum on the status of NI to run the same day as the Assembly electiions. In so doing they hoped to maximise the Unionist vote by dragging out the "Garden Centre Unionists" who don't normally vote. The DUP supported the idea, as indeed did SF/IRA who believed that a poll would raise debate on the issue.

However the SDLP (then the biggest nationalist party) blocked the idea, knowing that a poll would show the ratio of pro union to pro "united Ireland" people had barely changed in three quarters of a century.

You seem to be the only person talking sense on here keith, although i do hate to admit it.
Gombeens like steve think they can accept an artificial majority, the partitioning and gerrymandering of our people by the british government and still think they can achieve a 50% plus vote on unity.

Although keith how would unionists take it if PSF had the job as first minister and between them and ff they had a majority of the seats in the north?
Its very likely but i will also repeat that it'll never result in a UI situation.

[Jim236]

[quote=the hatchetman]

I don't believe that just 23% support Irish Unity.

Both SF & SDLP support a United Ireland and together poll around 42%.

Like most polls in the North to be read with caution.

It is a fatal flaw for anyone to use party support in NI, as a guide to how support for the "national question" pans out., given the sectarian nature of NI politics. There are many supporters of the SDLP and even SF who don't aspire to "Irish unity", at least in the forseeable future. Equally there are people who vote for the Unionist parties, who would not be averse to an independent NI.

Let us not forget that in 1998 the UUP wanted a referendum on the status of NI to run the same day as the Assembly electiions. In so doing they hoped to maximise the Unionist vote by dragging out the "Garden Centre Unionists" who don't normally vote. The DUP supported the idea, as indeed did SF/IRA who believed that a poll would raise debate on the issue.

However the SDLP (then the biggest nationalist party) blocked the idea, knowing that a poll would show the ratio of pro union to pro "united Ireland" people had barely changed in three quarters of a century.

You seem to be the only person talking sense on here keith, although i do hate to admit it.
Gombeens like steve think they can accept an artificial majority, the partitioning and gerrymandering of our people by the british government and still think they can achieve a 50% plus vote on unity.[/quote:1h1rm391]

I don't accept British rule on this island and don't agree with partition, it doesn't mean I'm gonna take up a gun and shoot the fu*k out of anyone with a union jack. You seem to be suggesting some sort of 'ethnic cleansing' is the only way to get rid of partition.

[the hatchetman]

[quote=Jim236]

I don't believe that just 23% support Irish Unity.

Both SF & SDLP support a United Ireland and together poll around 42%.

Like most polls in the North to be read with caution.

It is a fatal flaw for anyone to use party support in NI, as a guide to how support for the "national question" pans out., given the sectarian nature of NI politics. There are many supporters of the SDLP and even SF who don't aspire to "Irish unity", at least in the forseeable future. Equally there are people who vote for the Unionist parties, who would not be averse to an independent NI.

Let us not forget that in 1998 the UUP wanted a referendum on the status of NI to run the same day as the Assembly electiions. In so doing they hoped to maximise the Unionist vote by dragging out the "Garden Centre Unionists" who don't normally vote. The DUP supported the idea, as indeed did SF/IRA who believed that a poll would raise debate on the issue.

However the SDLP (then the biggest nationalist party) blocked the idea, knowing that a poll would show the ratio of pro union to pro "united Ireland" people had barely changed in three quarters of a century.

You seem to be the only person talking sense on here keith, although i do hate to admit it.
Gombeens like steve think they can accept an artificial majority, the partitioning and gerrymandering of our people by the british government and still think they can achieve a 50% plus vote on unity.

I don't accept British rule on this island and don't agree with partition, it doesn't mean I'm gonna take up a gun and shoot the fu*k out of anyone with a union jack. You seem to be suggesting some sort of 'ethnic cleansing' is the only way to get rid of partition.[/quote:ww4jj5dc]

Sorry jim if you misinterpreted me. i certainly am not advocating any form of ethnic cleansing be it bloodless or not.

I was just agreeing with keiths viewpoints that a considerable minority that vote for PSF and the SDLP are not pro unity.

Although i just asked him how he would feel having to live with a nationalist majority, be it a very slender one in 25years time.

By the look of your posts Jim, your politics seems be with a party that endorses the loyalist and british veto hence only the people within the partitioned state can change the constitutional status of it.

This scenario will never produce a 32county republic for numerous reasons that ive explained a 100 times on here.

Jim isnt it ironic that you like myself and 80% of the islands people, 85% of it political parties, most of the buisness community and a high percentage of the international community prefer unity.
The only way a UI can come about is if the Irish people as a whole can express themselves without direct foreign influence, a right we are denied.

The reasons for this is fear of the british government and pro british militias in Ireland, whether by economic sanctions or terrorist campaigns.

As for the loyalist veto, accepting it will bring peace in the short term but it in fact will do nothing to ease sectarianism.
Look at it this way, PSF spent 25years fighting the british government for national all ireland sovereignty, yes there was sectarian attacks but in general republicans were not a sectarian bunch.

By accepting the loyalist and british veto the enemy is now the unionist community as the british governments hands is washed off N ireland since the GFA has left a scenario were both communitys with equal numbers are fighting each other culturally and socially to try and make Ireland more british or more Irish.
There is many examples of this already.
I'd also like to add that i believe an armed campaign for national sovereignty is futile at the moment but i wouldnt condemn any Irish patriots that would partake in such actions.