Latest Population Estimates.

[boldfenianman]

NISRA announced this week that the population of NI has increased by 17,000 (1%) in the year ending June 2006. (This is double the normal rate of increase) . 8,000 by natural increase and 9,000 from inward migration. Population at census 2001 = 1.685 million. June 2006 =1.742 million. If you are a bit of a stathead like me then these numbers really make you sit up. It seems certain that the population at the next census in 2011 will comfortably exceed 1.8 million and by the census of 2021 will exceed 2 million. This has huge implications for the future of NI. It is generally accepted by even the most optimistic Unionists that the Protestant population will at best remain static in the period to 2021 at around the 890,000 mark . CAIN Project University of Ulster however has researched three scenarios for the Protestant population , the most optimistic of which sees them at 860,000 in 2021. This would equal 43% of the populace. Their highest estimate for the Catholic population in 2021 is 880,000. This would be 44% of the populace. Already 3% of the population are Other or None so in 2021 at current trends 10% of the population would form a category barely present in the 2001 census. Immigrants. New Ulster folk. Call them what you wish. Now they are going to be moslems, hindus Catholics ; the lot. Do you count Polish catholics in with Irish ones? Would a Kosovan moslem lean toward Unionism? It makes my head hurt there are so many permutations. Anyone got any thoughts. As an additional piece of the jigsaw. In 2001 there were 50,000 NI born folk in the ROI. Largely Catholic I would guess. What if a good number of them decided to return north as life gets better for all ? Also in 2001 there were 39,000 ROI born folk living in NI. Catholics? I expect so. There was a spurt in ROI born people in Fermanagh and Tyrone in the 2001 census. Farmers buying cheaper land? If the above projections are correct , and I think they are pretty conservative, then in 2021 the population of the ROI will comfortably top 5 million and NI top 2 million. The islands population of 7 million will contain an Ulster Protestant minority comprising 860,000 or 12% of the total. Easily outnumbered by the islands non-white population of 1.1 million equal to over 15% of total. Scary or exhilarating? What say you?

[gaelach]

NISRA announced this week that the population of NI has increased by 17,000 (1%) in the year ending June 2006. (This is double the normal rate of increase) . 8,000 by natural increase and 9,000 from inward migration. Population at census 2001 = 1.685 million. June 2006 =1.742 million. If you are a bit of a stathead like me then these numbers really make you sit up. It seems certain that the population at the next census in 2011 will comfortably exceed 1.8 million and by the census of 2021 will exceed 2 million. This has huge implications for the future of NI. It is generally accepted by even the most optimistic Unionists that the Protestant population will at best remain static in the period to 2021 at around the 890,000 mark . CAIN Project University of Ulster however has researched three scenarios for the Protestant population , the most optimistic of which sees them at 860,000 in 2021. This would equal 43% of the populace. Their highest estimate for the Catholic population in 2021 is 880,000. This would be 44% of the populace. Already 3% of the population are Other or None so in 2021 at current trends 10% of the population would form a category barely present in the 2001 census. Immigrants. New Ulster folk. Call them what you wish. Now they are going to be moslems, hindus Catholics ; the lot. Do you count Polish catholics in with Irish ones? Would a Kosovan moslem lean toward Unionism? It makes my head hurt there are so many permutations. Anyone got any thoughts. As an additional piece of the jigsaw. In 2001 there were 50,000 NI born folk in the ROI. Largely Catholic I would guess. What if a good number of them decided to return north as life gets better for all ? Also in 2001 there were 39,000 ROI born folk living in NI. Catholics? I expect so. There was a spurt in ROI born people in Fermanagh and Tyrone in the 2001 census. Farmers buying cheaper land? If the above projections are correct , and I think they are pretty conservative, then in 2021 the population of the ROI will comfortably top 5 million and NI top 2 million. The islands population of 7 million will contain an Ulster Protestant minority comprising 860,000 or 12% of the total. Easily outnumbered by the islands non-white population of 1.1 million equal to over 15% of total. Scary or exhilarating? What say you?

Do you mean NIRSA(National Institute for Regional and Spatial Analysis)?

[corkman2007]

The non-white population's not gonna be 15% by 2021! Maybe you mean the immigrant population?

As for the rest, who knows what might happen. Nationalist and Unionist as they exist now might be minority positions by 2021.

[Keith-M]

Aggregrating the population trends in both countries, doesn't tell you much, as politically we are quite different (see various parallel threads). We are both seing a lot of immigration and (generally from the same countries).

In Northern Ireland the fact is that proportionally few people are falling into the "other" category rather than Protestants and Catholics. While one it would have been predicted that Catholics might one day outnumber Protestants, this is now virtually impossible, as "others" are gaining ground from both sides almost proportionally equally.

Also you have to remember that immigrants to a country are generally the strongest supporters of the "status quo". If they found something they like about a country enough to make them come to it, they won't want to change that in a hurry. That's something that may make impact in N.I. if immigrants remain and vote, may also impact things here.

[boldfenianman]

Northern Ireland Statistics Research Agency. A government body.

[corkman2007]

Also you have to remember that immigrants to a country are generally the strongest supporters of the "status quo".

Most of the attacks on immigrants to N.I. have been on those living in loyalist areas. If that continues they'll be driven into nationalist areas and they'll probably adopt the political views of the surrounding community.

Of course if the Assembly is a success then there might be increasing support for an independent N.I.

BTW, is there any research that supports the notion that immigrants to a country are generally the strongest supporters of the status quo? It makes sense in some ways but you could also argue that immigrants are risk-taking and innovative rather than conservative by nature.

[boldfenianman]

Corkman; my apologies. I meant to say non-Irish born. Dunno where non-white came from. 15% would be about right in that case though.

[boldfenianman]

Fair point re status quo Keith but I am not convinced. If the largest group of migrants to NI are Poles whose Catholocism is fundamental to their world view would they not tend to settle in areas where Catholocism is also central to identity and identify with that community. Especially when they grasp what , say, the OO is all about. Might be pushed to vote SDLP at least . Perhaps Alliance? Dont forget they are not third worlders. If things get dodgy in their eyes they can easily go home. I talk of these matters in all-Ireland terms because I think of things generally in all-Ireland terms. The real differences I think you mean only really apply in Antrim , N Down, N Armagh and E Derry. Two thirds of the land area of NI are in most ways extensions of the ROI, currently under foreign jurisdiction.

[gaelach]

Northern Ireland Statistics Research Agency. A government body.

Oh right.Thanks.

[cgcsb]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_I ... on%2C_2007

Nationalists were up 2 seats and unionists were down two seats on the previous election. If this trend continues, there will be a nationalist majority in 2 elections time. regardless of how many news paper polls claim that there are many catholics that are unionists, that doesn't seem to show at election time, does it?