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  1. #1
    Portstewart Portstewart is offline

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    Nationalist Demographic Dreams of a Catholic Ulster are Doomed!

    In response to the fawning on here over Horseman's Ulsters Doomed blog and being a bit of a stats man myself I decided to do a bit of research of my own and it transpires, whether deliberately or simply through ignorance, he is being misleading and it is the flawed analysis in his blog that the clock is ticking on.

    Sources:
    Northern Ireland census 2001: Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency - Census - Census2001 Output - Theme Tables - NI
    Northern Ireland school enrolment data 2001-2010:
    http://www.deni.gov.uk/pupil_religio...dated_0910.xls
    Northern Ireland migration and population survey 2008:
    NISRA - Demography

    First of all the census 2001.

    The religious breakdown shows 678,500 RC's, 768,000 total Protestant, and 233,850 that identify with no religion.

    The Community background figures show, 737,412 RC, 895,377 Protestant background, and 45,909 of no religious background. This means that 8% from an Irish Catholic background, and 14% from a Protestant background no longer identify with these religious labels – meaning people from a Protestant background are twice as likely as those from an Irish Catholic background to choose to break with old religious labelling which has ramifications when considering the rapidly growing number of people in NI who do not identify with religion, as well as the 45,909 (largely under the age 40) who simply refused to take any religious background label.

    The 2001 census shows a clear and large Protestant background majority for 30 plus so it is below this age group that is most important for determining whether Irish catholic background will ever form a majority of the population, but it should be noted that there are around 150,000 more Protestants than Catholics over the age of 40, so in around 40 years or so the populations will be a lot more even, the key question is though how the composition of today's young people is taking form in order to determine what pattern the future population will take. And it is quite clear that the Irish Catholic background proportion of the youth population is now shrinking year on year against the general NI youth population and is already under 50%, how Horseman misses this critical point I really don't know.

    Here is the breakdown of age groups in the 2001 census by RC community background:

    0-4 56,546 out of a total of 115,230 = 49%
    5-11 56,878 out of a total of 175,202 = 49.6%
    12-15 54,745 out of a total of 107,616 = 50.9%
    16-17 27,406 out of a total of 53,458 = 51.4%
    18-19 25,076 out of a total of 48,639 = 51.6%
    20-24 54,110 out of a total of 109,385 = 49.5%
    25-34 109,782 out of a total of 242,221 = 45%

    The pattern is clear as day and reflects the fact that the disparity in birth rates peaked in the 1980s, thus creating a slight majority of RC background among the young aged 12 to early 20s by 2001, however the convergence in birth rates since is there for all to see and the proportion of Irish Catholic background birthrates have fallen back below 50% for some time. If you focus solely on those who still consider themselves Catholic rather than Catholic background the pattern is even more marked reading, 41% (25-34), 45% (20-24), 47% (18-19), 48% (16-17), 47% (12-15), 46% (5-11) and down to 43% in the 0-4 age group. The key reason for the change lies in the rapidly growing number of young people not choosing a background label, as we have seen twice as likely to be of Protestant background but given the determination of this group not to be labelled religiously it would be wrong to try to impose any kind of unionist or nationalist label on to them – they are a new and rapidly growing section of the population alongside Protestant and Catholic and one that will play the key role in the future direction of the country.

    Next up to see if the figures from the 2001 census are reflected in the school enrolment data for 2001-2010 and we find that they do with a falling RC background proportion across the board up to 2005, before the EU enlargement of 2004 complicates the picture as migration into NI increased sharply 2005-2008 increasing the population and birth rate and, given the RC background of the Poles and others who came from Eastern Europe, there is a break in the trend of the falling RC background proportion against the general population after 2005. However the key point that Horseman completely omits from his analysis is that the community he is banking on winning the breeding race are the Irish Catholic background that has been traditionally nationalist, and using data from the 2008 NI migration and population surveys it can be shown that that community continues to shrink in proportion to the NI general population destined to never reach a majority of the population.

    First of all the figures:
    Secondary schools/RC background/Total/Percentage
    09/10 76,139 147,759 51.53%
    08/09 75,968 147,986 51.33%
    07/08 75,725 147,943 51.12%
    06/07 76,463 149,765 51.06%
    05/06 77,806 151,840 51.24%
    04/05 78,766 153,749 51.33%
    03/04 79,815 155,394 51.36%
    02/03 80,052 155,747 51.39%
    01/02 80,034 155,503 51.47%
    00/01 80,297 155,553 51.62%

    Primary Schools
    09/10 78,018 152,552 51.14%
    08/09 78,738 153,551 51.27%
    07/08 79,490 155,500 51.11%
    06/07 79,834 157,020 50.84%
    05/06 79,719 158,665 50.24%
    04/05 80,376 160,709 50.01%
    03/04 82,124 163,790 50.45%
    02/03 83,279 165,179 50.42%
    01/02 84,762 167,883 50.49%
    00/01 85,749 179,700 50.53%

    Nursery
    09/10 2718 5857 46.4%
    08/09 2555 5869 43.5%
    07/08 2677 5855 45.7%
    06/07 2754 6053 45.5%
    05/06 2784 6175 45.1%
    04/05 2723 6121 44.5%
    03/04 2853 6238 45.7%
    02/03 2841 6369 45.3%
    01/02 2854 6093 46.8%
    00/01 2844 5965 47.7%

    It is striking that the younger you get the smaller the RC proportion gets running as low as 44.5% at nursery level before the eastern european migrants arrived. The effects of this migration is made clear in the Northern Ireland population survey 2008 where is tells us that 4,300 primary school children didn't have English as a first language in 2008, 3% of the Primary school roll, and 2,100 in secondary school explaining the boost to the RC numbers post 2005. It should be noted though that after the initial burst of immigration it has slowed significantly and many have left, so while there will be a temporary hike in the RC numbers this too will soon level off below the rest of Northern Ireland population figures.

    Horseman, or HorsesAss as may be more appropriate, talks about these increases in the RC numbers of late as if it is part of some continuing trend of the Irish RC backgrounds unstoppable advance to majority, completely wrong, it is 100% to do with immigration into Northern Ireland from eastern europe following EU enlargement. How he fails to spot the blatant pattern up to 2005 and throughout the 2001 census is beyond me, he is either deliberately concealing it or is just a fool. I also notice he talks about the raging birth rates and populations in majority nationalist places such as Dungannon in a similar vein, interestingly the 2008 NI population survey tells us that the average number of primary school kids with English not as their first language rises from 3% nationally to 10% in Dungannon, I wonder what's behind the booming population there!

    Overall the picture is crystal clear, the Irish RC background proportion of the population is slipping away and the younger you go the smaller it is. The prospects for a majority Irish Catholic background majority are slim to none and Northern Ireland's future will lie with the increasing group who choose not to by defined by the tired old labels.

    Id guess that EU migration will add another 1% or so onto the RC background in the census next year but the underlying trends will have continued meaning the Irish RC background population will have added only about 1% or 2% itself thanks to the greater proportion of Protestant elderly passing away. Far from an Irish RC background majority easing the path to a United Ireland 40 or 50 years into the future may be something like 40% discernible Irish RC background and shrinking, 40% discernible Protestant background and shrinking, and 20% growing non discernible people not conforming to any of the old religious/cultural labels in any way. Time for demographic nationalists to think again.
    Last edited by Portstewart; 4th May 2010 at 11:18 AM.
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  2. #2
    sharpcut sharpcut is offline

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    Solid work. I could make a comment about foreign RCs, but I'll leave you to think about what their kids might end up believing...
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  3. #3
    SlabMurphy SlabMurphy is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by portstewart View Post
    in response to the fawning on here over horseman's ulsters doomed blog and being a bit of a stats man myself i decided to do a bit of research of my own and it transpires, whether deliberately or simply through ignorance, he is being misleading and it is the flawed analysis in his blog that the clock is ticking on.

    Sources:
    Northern ireland census 2001: northern ireland statistics and research agency - census - census2001 output - theme tables - ni
    northern ireland school enrolment data 2001-2010:
    http://www.deni.gov.uk/pupil_religio...dated_0910.xls
    northern ireland migration and population survey 2008:
    nisra - demography

    first of all the census 2001.

    The religious breakdown shows 678,500 rc's, 768,000 total protestant, and 233,850 that identify with no religion.

    The community background figures show, 737,412 rc, 895,377 protestant background, and 45,909 of no religious background. This means that 8% from an irish catholic background, and 14% from a protestant background no longer identify with these religious labels meaning people from a protestant background are twice as likely as those from an irish catholic background to choose to break with old religious labelling which has ramifications when considering the rapidly growing number of people in ni who do not identify with religion, as well as the 45,909 (largely under the age 40) who simply refused to take any religious background label.

    The 2001 census shows a clear and large protestant background majority for 30 plus so it is below this age group that is most important for determining whether irish catholic background will ever form a majority of the population, but it should be noted that there are around 150,000 more protestants than catholics over the age of 40, so in around 40 years or so the populations will be a lot more even, the key question is though how the composition of today's young people is taking form in order to determine what pattern the future population will take. And it is quite clear that the irish catholic background proportion of the youth population is now shrinking year on year against the general ni youth population and is already under 50%, how horseman misses this critical point i really don't know.

    Here is the breakdown of age groups in the 2001 census by rc community background:

    0-4 56,546 out of a total of 115,230 = 49%
    5-11 56,878 out of a total of 175,202 = 49.6%
    12-15 54,745 out of a total of 107,616 = 50.9%
    16-17 27,406 out of a total of 53,458 = 51.4%
    18-19 25,076 out of a total of 48,639 = 51.6%
    20-24 54,110 out of a total of 109,385 = 49.5%
    25-34 109,782 out of a total of 242,221 = 45%

    the pattern is clear as day and reflects the fact that the disparity in birth rates peaked in the 1980s, thus creating a slight majority of rc background among the young aged 12 to early 20s by 2001, however the convergence in birth rates since is there for all to see and the proportion of irish catholic background birthrates have fallen back below 50% for some time. If you focus solely on those who still consider themselves catholic rather than catholic background the pattern is even more marked reading, 41% (25-34), 45% (20-24), 47% (18-19), 48% (16-17), 47% (12-15), 46% (5-11) and down to 43% in the 0-4 age group. The key reason for the change lies in the rapidly growing number of young people not choosing a background label, as we have seen twice as likely to be of protestant background but given the determination of this group not to be labelled religiously it would be wrong to try to impose any kind of unionist or nationalist label on to them they are a new and rapidly growing section of the population alongside protestant and catholic and one that will play the key role in the future direction of the country.

    Next up to see if the figures from the 2001 census are reflected in the school enrolment data for 2001-2010 and we find that they do with a falling rc background proportion across the board up to 2005, before the eu enlargement of 2004 complicates the picture as migration into ni increased sharply 2005-2008 increasing the population and birth rate and, given the rc background of the poles and others who came from eastern europe, there is a break in the trend of the falling rc background proportion against the general population after 2005. However the key point that horseman completely omits from his analysis is that the community he is banking on winning the breeding race are the irish catholic background that has been traditionally nationalist, and using data from the 2008 ni migration and population surveys it can be shown that that community continues to shrink in proportion to the ni general population destined to never reach a majority of the population.

    First of all the figures:
    Secondary schools/rc background/total/percentage
    09/10 76,139 147,759 51.53%
    08/09 75,968 147,986 51.33%
    07/08 75,725 147,943 51.12%
    06/07 76,463 149,765 51.06%
    05/06 77,806 151,840 51.24%
    04/05 78,766 153,749 51.33%
    03/04 79,815 155,394 51.36%
    02/03 80,052 155,747 51.39%
    01/02 80,034 155,503 51.47%
    00/01 80,297 155,553 51.62%

    primary schools
    09/10 78,018 152,552 51.14%
    08/09 78,738 153,551 51.27%
    07/08 79,490 155,500 51.11%
    06/07 79,834 157,020 50.84%
    05/06 79,719 158,665 50.24%
    04/05 80,376 160,709 50.01%
    03/04 82,124 163,790 50.45%
    02/03 83,279 165,179 50.42%
    01/02 84,762 167,883 50.49%
    00/01 85,749 179,700 50.53%

    nursery
    09/10 2718 5857 46.4%
    08/09 2555 5869 43.5%
    07/08 2677 5855 45.7%
    06/07 2754 6053 45.5%
    05/06 2784 6175 45.1%
    04/05 2723 6121 44.5%
    03/04 2853 6238 45.7%
    02/03 2841 6369 45.3%
    01/02 2854 6093 46.8%
    00/01 2844 5965 47.7%

    it is striking that the younger you get the smaller the rc proportion gets running as low as 44.5% at nursery level before the eastern european migrants arrived. The effects of this migration is made clear in the northern ireland population survey 2008 where is tells us that 4,300 primary school children didn't have english as a first language in 2008, 3% of the primary school roll, and 2,100 in secondary school explaining the boost to the rc numbers post 2005. It should be noted though that after the initial burst of immigration it has slowed significantly and many have left, so while there will be a temporary hike in the rc numbers this too will soon level off below the rest of northern ireland population figures.

    Horseman, or horsesass as may be more appropriate, talks about these increases in the rc numbers of late as if it is part of some continuing trend of the irish rc backgrounds unstoppable advance to majority, completely wrong, it is 100% to do with immigration into northern ireland from eastern europe following eu enlargement. How he fails to spot the blatant pattern up to 2005 and throughout the 2001 census is beyond me, he is either deliberately concealing it or is just a fool. I also notice he talks about the raging birth rates and populations in majority nationalist places such as dungannon in a similar vein, interestingly the 2008 ni population survey tells us that the average number of primary school kids with english not as their first language rises from 3% nationally to 10% in dungannon, i wonder what's behind the booming population there!

    Overall the picture is crystal clear, the irish rc background proportion of the population is slipping away and the younger you go the smaller it is. The prospects for a majority irish catholic background majority are slim to none and northern ireland's future will lie with the increasing group who choose not to by defined by the tired old labels.

    Id guess that eu migration will add another 1% or so onto the rc background in the census next year but the underlying trends will have continued meaning the irish rc background population will have added only about 1% or 2% itself thanks to the greater proportion of protestant elderly passing away. Far from an irish rc background majority easing the path to a united ireland 40 or 50 years into the future may be something like 40% discernible irish rc background and shrinking, 40% discernible protestant background and shrinking, and 20% growing non discernible people not conforming to any of the old religious/cultural labels in any way. Time for demographic nationalists to think again.
    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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  4. #4
    Portstewart Portstewart is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by SlabMurphy View Post
    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
    Did you not like the content or was it too many long words and numbers?

    Glad you had a wee read anyway.
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  5. #5
    Portstewart Portstewart is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by sharpcut View Post
    Solid work. I could make a comment about foreign RCs, but I'll leave you to think about what their kids might end up believing...
    The Italian ones went that way, different times now though who knows with the eastern europeans.

    It may depend on the area they move to I guess and whether they stay but they moved to Northern Ireland it would be strange to move to a place then support it being annexed by another state which isn't exactly the land of milk and honey at the moment. The numbers seemed to have dried up recently I suppose as there's little work and what you have you.
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  6. #6
    eoghanacht eoghanacht is offline
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    It's a bit sad really, c'mon like how absorbed are you with proving anonymous posters on the internet how right you are.

    On another thread you'll be telling us that not ALL Catholics would vote for a UI. So your research was a bit of a waste of time, still though it's nice to have a hobby.
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  7. #7
    Portstewart Portstewart is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by eoghanacht View Post
    It's a bit sad really, c'mon like how absorbed are you with proving anonymous posters on the internet how right you are.

    On another thread you'll be telling us that not ALL Catholics would vote for a UI. So your research was a bit of a waste of time, still though it's nice to have a hobby.
    If it weren't for all the nationalists on here telling us a UI is just around the corner due to demographics and to accept it then I wouldn't have bothered. Only took an hour or so sh*te like that needs challenged.
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  8. #8
    bobbysands81 bobbysands81 is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Portstewart View Post

    Here is the breakdown of age groups in the 2001 census by RC community background:

    0-4 56,546 out of a total of 115,230 = 49%
    5-11 56,878 out of a total of 175,202 = 49.6%
    12-15 54,745 out of a total of 107,616 = 50.9%
    16-17 27,406 out of a total of 53,458 = 51.4%
    18-19 25,076 out of a total of 48,639 = 51.6%
    20-24 54,110 out of a total of 109,385 = 49.5%
    25-34 109,782 out of a total of 242,221 = 45%
    To buy into your sectarian headcount can you provide details of Protestant %s in the same age groups as above?

    Is it not the case that Catholics are well in excess of them?
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  9. #9
    Theobald Theobald is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Portstewart View Post
    In response to the fawning on here over Horseman's Ulsters Doomed blog and being a bit of a stats man myself I decided to do a bit of research of my own and it transpires, whether deliberately or simply through ignorance, he is being misleading and it is the flawed analysis in his blog that the clock is ticking on.

    Sources:
    Northern Ireland census 2001: Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency - Census - Census2001 Output - Theme Tables - NI
    Northern Ireland school enrolment data 2001-2010:
    http://www.deni.gov.uk/pupil_religio...dated_0910.xls
    Northern Ireland migration and population survey 2008:
    NISRA - Demography

    First of all the census 2001.

    The religious breakdown shows 678,500 RC's, 768,000 total Protestant, and 233,850 that identify with no religion.

    The Community background figures show, 737,412 RC, 895,377 Protestant background, and 45,909 of no religious background. This means that 8% from an Irish Catholic background, and 14% from a Protestant background no longer identify with these religious labels meaning people from a Protestant background are twice as likely as those from an Irish Catholic background to choose to break with old religious labelling which has ramifications when considering the rapidly growing number of people in NI who do not identify with religion, as well as the 45,909 (largely under the age 40) who simply refused to take any religious background label.

    The 2001 census shows a clear and large Protestant background majority for 30 plus so it is below this age group that is most important for determining whether Irish catholic background will ever form a majority of the population, but it should be noted that there are around 150,000 more Protestants than Catholics over the age of 40, so in around 40 years or so the populations will be a lot more even, the key question is though how the composition of today's young people is taking form in order to determine what pattern the future population will take. And it is quite clear that the Irish Catholic background proportion of the youth population is now shrinking year on year against the general NI youth population and is already under 50%, how Horseman misses this critical point I really don't know.

    Here is the breakdown of age groups in the 2001 census by RC community background:

    0-4 56,546 out of a total of 115,230 = 49%
    5-11 56,878 out of a total of 175,202 = 49.6%
    12-15 54,745 out of a total of 107,616 = 50.9%
    16-17 27,406 out of a total of 53,458 = 51.4%
    18-19 25,076 out of a total of 48,639 = 51.6%
    20-24 54,110 out of a total of 109,385 = 49.5%
    25-34 109,782 out of a total of 242,221 = 45%

    The pattern is clear as day and reflects the fact that the disparity in birth rates peaked in the 1980s, thus creating a slight majority of RC background among the young aged 12 to early 20s by 2001, however the convergence in birth rates since is there for all to see and the proportion of Irish Catholic background birthrates have fallen back below 50% for some time. If you focus solely on those who still consider themselves Catholic rather than Catholic background the pattern is even more marked reading, 41% (25-34), 45% (20-24), 47% (18-19), 48% (16-17), 47% (12-15), 46% (5-11) and down to 43% in the 0-4 age group. The key reason for the change lies in the rapidly growing number of young people not choosing a background label, as we have seen twice as likely to be of Protestant background but given the determination of this group not to be labelled religiously it would be wrong to try to impose any kind of unionist or nationalist label on to them they are a new and rapidly growing section of the population alongside Protestant and Catholic and one that will play the key role in the future direction of the country.

    Next up to see if the figures from the 2001 census are reflected in the school enrolment data for 2001-2010 and we find that they do with a falling RC background proportion across the board up to 2005, before the EU enlargement of 2004 complicates the picture as migration into NI increased sharply 2005-2008 increasing the population and birth rate and, given the RC background of the Poles and others who came from Eastern Europe, there is a break in the trend of the falling RC background proportion against the general population after 2005. However the key point that Horseman completely omits from his analysis is that the community he is banking on winning the breeding race are the Irish Catholic background that has been traditionally nationalist, and using data from the 2008 NI migration and population surveys it can be shown that that community continues to shrink in proportion to the NI general population destined to never reach a majority of the population.

    First of all the figures:
    Secondary schools/RC background/Total/Percentage
    09/10 76,139 147,759 51.53%
    08/09 75,968 147,986 51.33%
    07/08 75,725 147,943 51.12%
    06/07 76,463 149,765 51.06%
    05/06 77,806 151,840 51.24%
    04/05 78,766 153,749 51.33%
    03/04 79,815 155,394 51.36%
    02/03 80,052 155,747 51.39%
    01/02 80,034 155,503 51.47%
    00/01 80,297 155,553 51.62%

    Primary Schools
    09/10 78,018 152,552 51.14%
    08/09 78,738 153,551 51.27%
    07/08 79,490 155,500 51.11%
    06/07 79,834 157,020 50.84%
    05/06 79,719 158,665 50.24%
    04/05 80,376 160,709 50.01%
    03/04 82,124 163,790 50.45%
    02/03 83,279 165,179 50.42%
    01/02 84,762 167,883 50.49%
    00/01 85,749 179,700 50.53%

    Nursery
    09/10 2718 5857 46.4%
    08/09 2555 5869 43.5%
    07/08 2677 5855 45.7%
    06/07 2754 6053 45.5%
    05/06 2784 6175 45.1%
    04/05 2723 6121 44.5%
    03/04 2853 6238 45.7%
    02/03 2841 6369 45.3%
    01/02 2854 6093 46.8%
    00/01 2844 5965 47.7%

    It is striking that the younger you get the smaller the RC proportion gets running as low as 44.5% at nursery level before the eastern european migrants arrived. The effects of this migration is made clear in the Northern Ireland population survey 2008 where is tells us that 4,300 primary school children didn't have English as a first language in 2008, 3% of the Primary school roll, and 2,100 in secondary school explaining the boost to the RC numbers post 2005. It should be noted though that after the initial burst of immigration it has slowed significantly and many have left, so while there will be a temporary hike in the RC numbers this too will soon level off below the rest of Northern Ireland population figures.

    Horseman, or HorsesAss as may be more appropriate, talks about these increases in the RC numbers of late as if it is part of some continuing trend of the Irish RC backgrounds unstoppable advance to majority, completely wrong, it is 100% to do with immigration into Northern Ireland from eastern europe following EU enlargement. How he fails to spot the blatant pattern up to 2005 and throughout the 2001 census is beyond me, he is either deliberately concealing it or is just a fool. I also notice he talks about the raging birth rates and populations in majority nationalist places such as Dungannon in a similar vein, interestingly the 2008 NI population survey tells us that the average number of primary school kids with English not as their first language rises from 3% nationally to 10% in Dungannon, I wonder what's behind the booming population there!

    Overall the picture is crystal clear, the Irish RC background proportion of the population is slipping away and the younger you go the smaller it is. The prospects for a majority Irish Catholic background majority are slim to none and Northern Ireland's future will lie with the increasing group who choose not to by defined by the tired old labels.

    Id guess that EU migration will add another 1% or so onto the RC background in the census next year but the underlying trends will have continued meaning the Irish RC background population will have added only about 1% or 2% itself thanks to the greater proportion of Protestant elderly passing away. Far from an Irish RC background majority easing the path to a United Ireland 40 or 50 years into the future may be something like 40% discernible Irish RC background and shrinking, 40% discernible Protestant background and shrinking, and 20% growing non discernible people not conforming to any of the old religious/cultural labels in any way. Time for demographic nationalists to think again.
    why are you being deliberatly misleading? Why not do the same graphs with the protestant community, or even do a like-for-like comparison.
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  10. #10
    Amach na Casca Amach na Casca is offline
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    Horsemans blog takes both communities into account and shows graphs and stats outlining the changes and he is as scentific as its possible to be. Portstewart takes a part of the story and runs with that. I suppose its similiar to the mythical 1 million unionists we keep hearing about.
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