South Belfast - General Election 2010

[Iarmhi Gael]

I see the Ulster Unionist & Conservatives had their nominations last night.

Details of which can be found on the UCUNF?s list of target seat grows? Bobballs! blog

Between 3 candiates at present for the vote within that party - Peter McCann, Paula Bradshaw & Michael Henderson. (Towards the end of that blog you'll see an embarrassing confrontation started by A Mr Bill White btw. Very funny and very typical of the Old UUP. My Man is better then you Man)

Anyhow we could be in a situation where Peter McCann, a Catholic from West Belfast, with a Gaa and Tory background will get the nomination in what should be a seat.

Anyone got any details as who the other nominations are. I cann't see McDonnell get the seat again. Last time out the DUP and UUP split the vote. DUP will lose some of their support back to the UUP in which I think should see a return of South Belfast to Unionist hands

[inherit the deficit]

I see the Ulster Unionist & Conservatives had their nominations last night.

Details of which can be found on the UCUNF?s list of target seat grows? Bobballs! blog

Between 3 candiates at present for the vote within that party - Peter McCann, Paula Bradshaw & Michael Henderson. (Towards the end of that blog you'll see an embarrassing confrontation started by A Mr Bill White btw. Very funny and very typical of the Old UUP. My Man is better then you Man)

Anyhow we could be in a situation where Peter McCann, a Catholic from West Belfast, with a Gaa and Tory background will get the nomination in what should be a seat.

Anyone got any details as who the other nominations are. I cann't see McDonnell get the seat again. Last time out the DUP and UUP split the vote. DUP will lose some of their support back to the UUP in which I think should see a return of South Belfast to Unionist hands

Jim Allister has said that the TUV are considering fielding a candidate in S.Belfast, given the recent sleaze scandal and uproar its a 3 way Unionist split. Alliance and SF supporters loaned their votes to SDLP in 2005. I see no reason why that would not happen again. Mc.Donnell will keep his seat.

[Iarmhi Gael]

Jim Allister has said that the TUV are considering fielding a candidate in S.Belfast, given the recent sleaze scandal and uproar its a 3 way Unionist split. Alliance and SF supporters loaned their votes to SDLP in 2005. I see no reason why that would not happen again. Mc.Donnell will keep his seat.

No UUP will ever vote for TUV....

DUP went soft at the last elections, and the UUP lost some of its hardline voters to a softer DUP. The TUV is like a hardlined DUP, few votes will transfer to the TUV from UUP. Look at the latest elections in the north to see where the TUV are getting their votes...


Alliance - Feck me - Biggest waste of space ever. I cann't belive my tax payers money goes to paying some of their elected representatives

[inherit the deficit]

No UUP will ever vote for DUP....

DUP went soft at the last elections, and the UUP lost some of its hardline voters to a softer DUP. The TUV is like a hardlined DUP, few votes will transfer to the TUV from UUP. Look at the latest elections in the north to see where the TUV are getting their votes...

Know full well about the lot of them.
Something to consider about South Belfast Constituency in the 1983 there was about 5000Nationalist voters now today there is roughly 15000.

[Anamnua]

Sammy Morse, an electoral pundit of some substance who posts regularly on Slugger, reckons the nationalist population of SB is rising by one percentage point per annum.

[dazzler]

UK General elections in SB - Nationalist vote
2005: 41.3%
2001: 38.2%
1997: 29.4%
1992: 22.0%
1987: 16.3%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belfast...t_constituency)

[dazzler]

That is exceptional growth in the natinalist vote. I would expect at least 45% in the 2010 election. Unionist vote would therefore be arount 48% with others 7%. If the TUV run unionists haven't a hope. If they don't I would expect a result to be something like

SDLP 32%
SF 13%
DUP 24%
UCUNF 24%

[picador]

There are a couple of unknowns here.

Who will be UNCUNF candidate?
Will TUV stand?

It's worth noting also that McDonnell's DUP challenger, Jimmy Spratt is a member of Castlereagh Brough Council, part of which falls within the constituency (the now famous Lockkeeper's Inn is in south Belfast).

McDonnell to hang on.

[Iarmhi Gael]

Woke up this morning to see that Alistair McDonnell has nearly all of South Belfast's main Artillery routes covered with posters...

First one out of the blocks in South Belfast...

Any other posters up?

[Portstewart]

UK General elections in SB - Nationalist vote
2005: 41.3%
2001: 38.2%
1997: 29.4%
1992: 22.0%
1987: 16.3%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belfast...t_constituency)

Just had a look at this and it isn't quite the picture you painted there.

There was a 3% difference in turnout between 2001 and 2005 which skews the percentage of the vote comparison. If you compare the nationalist vote by the actual numbers of votes it comes to:

2005: 13,221
2001: 14,503

So the nationalist vote actually fell between 01 and 05 so I wouldn't be getting too carried away.