Sinn Féin: The largest political party in northern Ireland

[McCann]

The DUP said that Bob McCartney running in 6 constituancies for the UKUP is going to help Sinn Féin become the biggest political party in northern Ireland.

With the British Conservative Party continuing their promotion in the North, and the British Nationalist Party sticking their nose in as usual, the Unionist vote may very well soon be split 5 ways between the DUP, the UUP, The British Conservative Party and the British Nationalist Party, along with a possible sixth in the Progressive Unionist Party.

The Nationalist vote however has, for quite a while, been a two party system between Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labour Party. Sinn Féin have become the largest Nationalist party and also the second largest party overall in the six counties.

With the possible vote-split of the Unionst contingent, does anyone think it's possible that Sinn Féin could indeed between northern Ireland's largest political party?

[Gerrry]

No, its not gonna happen. The DUP's vote would need to seriously collapse and SF would need to significantly increase for this to happen - neither of these will happen. Sf may gain slightly though they may also lose some votes to the likes of Hyland, Cunningham and O Hara in the Newry/Armagh, South Down and Foyle constituencies. The DUP may lose some votes around their fringes but its not gonna be serious if it does happen at all.

[McCann]

I'd not be so confident there, the DUP polled 29% and Sinn Féin 23% roughly the last time I checked, an increase in Unionist choice and a split in the figures, mixed with the SDLP almost falling into the "other" category, I wouldn't rule it out at all from happening over the next 5 years.

[factual]

I'd not be so confident there, the DUP polled 29% and Sinn Féin 23% roughly the last time I checked, an increase in Unionist choice and a split in the figures, mixed with the SDLP almost falling into the "other" category, I wouldn't rule it out at all from happening over the next 5 years.

The BNP are't even standing, the PUP are in decline, and the UKUP are in a ridiculous state so I don't think you made a very compelling case.

[Gerrry]

I'd not be so confident there, the DUP polled 29% and Sinn Féin 23% roughly the last time I checked, an increase in Unionist choice and a split in the figures, mixed with the SDLP almost falling into the "other" category, I wouldn't rule it out at all from happening over the next 5 years.

Sorry but I thought you were talking about this election.

If SF can increase their percentage point total at all, they will probably be quite happy. I dont think they are expecting any big increases this time out. Similarly i cannot see for the life of me how the DUP could drop 2/3%. Even allowing for some slippage to McCartney from the fringes of the DUP support, there is absolutely no inc=dication that the DUP are in any real danger here.

[Trefor]

I'd not be so confident there, the DUP polled 29% and Sinn Féin 23% roughly the last time I checked, an increase in Unionist choice and a split in the figures, mixed with the SDLP almost falling into the "other" category, I wouldn't rule it out at all from happening over the next 5 years.

In the Westminster elections it was DUP 33.7%, SF 24.3%. In the local elections the split was 29.6%/23.2%.

Most of the Unionist parties you mention aren't going to garner hardly any votes at all. The DUP are virtually certain to come out on top in terms of votes. Even if they don't they'll still come top in terms of seats.

Sounds to me as if the DUP are trying to scare the Unionist electorate into voting for it.

[factual]

I'd not be so confident there, the DUP polled 29% and Sinn Féin 23% roughly the last time I checked, an increase in Unionist choice and a split in the figures, mixed with the SDLP almost falling into the "other" category, I wouldn't rule it out at all from happening over the next 5 years.

In the Westminster elections it was DUP 33.7%, SF 24.3%. In the local elections the split was 29.6%/23.2%.

Most of the Unionist parties you mention aren't going to garner hardly any votes at all. The DUP are virtually certain to come out on top in terms of votes. Even if they don't they'll still come top in terms of seats.

Sounds to me as if the DUP are trying to scare the Unionist electorate into voting for it.

It will be interesting to see if the UUP's strategy of not trying to out-DUP the DUP will work.

[factual]

I'd not be so confident there, the DUP polled 29% and Sinn Féin 23% roughly the last time I checked, an increase in Unionist choice and a split in the figures, mixed with the SDLP almost falling into the "other" category, I wouldn't rule it out at all from happening over the next 5 years.

In the Westminster elections it was DUP 33.7%, SF 24.3%. In the local elections the split was 29.6%/23.2%.

Most of the Unionist parties you mention aren't going to garner hardly any votes at all. The DUP are virtually certain to come out on top in terms of votes. Even if they don't they'll still come top in terms of seats.

Sounds to me as if the DUP are trying to scare the Unionist electorate into voting for it.

It will be interesting to see if the UUP's strategy of not trying to out-DUP the DUP will work.

[Gerrry]

I'd not be so confident there, the DUP polled 29% and Sinn Féin 23% roughly the last time I checked, an increase in Unionist choice and a split in the figures, mixed with the SDLP almost falling into the "other" category, I wouldn't rule it out at all from happening over the next 5 years.

In the Westminster elections it was DUP 33.7%, SF 24.3%. In the local elections the split was 29.6%/23.2%.

Most of the Unionist parties you mention aren't going to garner hardly any votes at all. The DUP are virtually certain to come out on top in terms of votes. Even if they don't they'll still come top in terms of seats.

Sounds to me as if the DUP are trying to scare the Unionist electorate into voting for it.

Thats exactly what they are doing Trefor

[Trefor]

Thats exactly what they are doing Trefor

Well, if frightening the shi*e out of people has worked fine for 30+ years, they're hardly going to give up on the tactic are they?