NorthKerry/West Limerick, South Kerry 2012

[QuietKerryman]

As the dust settles on the Constituency boundaries for the 2012 election, it's time to look ahead and forward.

It certainly will be a fascinating election in the Kingdom and the Desmond area of West Limerick.

It will be interesting to see if Tom McEllistrim chooses to remain in Kerry north or follow his natural base of Castleisland into Kerry South. If Mac decides to move South, Brosna is also included in the South, he will follow his natural base.

In those circumstances, FF could toy with the idea of running 3. Norma Foley could get a free run from the Tralee Town end, Listowel and North Kerry could be covered by Ned O'Sullivan with another candidate from the Abbeyfeale area.

Now, if Ned doesn't decide to run, that could pave the way open for Sean Walsh, the Kerry County Board GAA Chairman, who has been mooted as a possible FF candidate. Walsh would do well also in the areas of West Limerick that are in the Constituency, and his stint as Munster Council Chairman will do him no harm at all.

What does Niall Collins do now? His natural base is Abbeyfeale, the home town of his uncles and his grandfather. Abbeyfeale [is Collins territory and has been since 1948, or does he go in the new three-seater Limerick County.

Dan Neville too must be weighing up his options. Should he go in Kerry North/West Limerick, where he will compete with Jimmy Deenihan, or should he go in Limerick County.

If Tom Mac goes to South Kerry, he will keep a large chunk of his Castleisland support base. He will also pick up votes in Farranfore, Cordal and Scartaglin, as well as West Kerry. Of course, Mac could decide to remain in North Kerry, leaving the way open for his sister Anne to get a run in South Kerry. Of course, another man who will be watching the situation closely is Cllr Tom Fleming.

If Mac stays in the North Fleming will be expected to do well in South Kerry, as Castleisland is close to his Scartaglin power base.

It certainly promises to be a fascinating few years ahead.

The four-seater Dun Laoghaire would also be interesting to watch. FF should get 1, with FG and Lab the other two. The last seat will be between FF, Ciaran Cuffe and Richard Boyd Barrett.

Louth should see FF get two, Dermot Ahern and Seamus Kirk, if he goes again, FG 1, Fergus O'Dowd, and SF 1. The last seat will be between FF, FG and the Greens.

The newly expanded Dublin West should see Joe Higgins make a Dail comeback, though Brian Lenihan and FF will have something to say about that.

Those are some of the possibilities ahead. We cannot make any predictions until we see how the Constituencies break down. [/i]

[hobo]

If Mac decides to move South, Brosna is also included in the South, he will follow his natural base.

Pretty sure Brosna is not included in South Kerry.

Am I wrong in thinking that Mac's base is in Ballymac? Which while minute, remains in North Kerry and close to Tralee.

Seems as if his decision will come down to whether Collins will follow his supposed 3k first preferences and hope to pick up the whats needed from the strong FF vote in North Kerry. Which I don't think will happen. He'll remain in Limerick and grumble instead.

Fleming would lose out on what could have been a sure thing if Tommy Mac does run in South. Fleming's Scart base would guarantee him a very strong Castleisland vote.
Although there were rumours about O'Donoghue's siblings possibly contesting. Have you heard anything?

[kerrynorth]

If Mac decides to move South, Brosna is also included in the South, he will follow his natural base.

Pretty sure Brosna is not included in South Kerry.

Am I wrong in thinking that Mac's base is in Ballymac? Which while minute, remains in North Kerry and close to Tralee.

Seems as if his decision will come down to whether Collins will follow his supposed 3k first preferences and hope to pick up the whats needed from the strong FF vote in North Kerry. Which I don't think will happen. He'll remain in Limerick and grumble instead.

Fleming would lose out on what could have been a sure thing if Tommy Mac does run in South. Fleming's Scart base would guarantee him a very strong Castleisland vote.
Although there were rumours about O'Donoghue's siblings possibly contesting. Have you heard anything?

The Bull's brother Paul has declared himself as a candidate.

[Kerrygold]

Firstly there is no chance that Collins will follow 1/3 of his vote and leave 2/3s of his vote. Won't happen. Secondly, there is even less chance of Mac running in S.Kerry. He is losing around 900 votes between the Castleisland and West Kerry changes, but he will easily make that back up in the staunchly FF area of W. Limerick.

Brosna remains in N.Kerry.

Sean Walsh has no intention of entering the fray at the moment. He has his eyes on other projects me thinks.

Tom Flemming's goose is cooked I think. S. Kerry is a 2 seater and Paul O'Donoghue will hoover up most of his brother's vote. That will leave the other seat for FG.

[Joe Ryan]

Louth should see FF get two, Dermot Ahern and Seamus Kirk, if he goes again, FG 1, Fergus O'Dowd, and SF 1. The last seat will be between FF, FG and the Greens.

[/i]

Rather optomistic to suggest that FF or Green could take a third government seat in Louth given that Ged Nash performed reasonably well in June and that the part of East Meath added is fromt eh area where Senator Domnic Hanigan did well in 2007. Put your money on Nash retaking the old Bell seat

[newbie12]

Louth should see FF get two, Dermot Ahern and Seamus Kirk, if he goes again, FG 1, Fergus O'Dowd, and SF 1. The last seat will be between FF, FG and the Greens.

[/i]

Rather optomistic to suggest that FF or Green could take a third government seat in Louth given that Ged Nash performed reasonably well in June and that the part of East Meath added is fromt eh area where Senator Domnic Hanigan did well in 2007. Put your money on Nash retaking the old Bell seat

Just as optimistic to suggest that Labour could take it given Nash's poor performance and Hannigan's average one. Byrne will move over as well and will be in with a shout as well as Hannigan. Realistically though FG should be in the driving seat.

[westkerryblue]

Louth will probably be 2ff,2fg,1sf so long as nothing huge happens in the meanwhile

[Rosmuc]

Tommy Mac ignored again for a mini merc ( who really thought he would get a junior-except his own supporters who pumped up his chance recently to local gullible hacks ? ), no place at the big or small cabinet table for any Kerry person - would that have anything to do with the ability of any FF T.D. I wonder ? mmm... those clever heads at FF H.Q. think that the voters in Kerry North will never cop on to the fact that they keep on returning a lemon to Dublin....... they could be right.

[FrankSpeaks]

Tommy Mac ignored again for a mini merc ( who really thought he would get a junior-except his own supporters who pumped up his chance recently to local gullible hacks ? ), no place at the big or small cabinet table for any Kerry person - would that have anything to do with the ability of any FF T.D. I wonder ? mmm... those clever heads at FF H.Q. think that the voters in Kerry North will never cop on to the fact that they keep on returning a lemon to Dublin....... they could be right.

In my view the incumbents rule the party system. You would have to start out at 18 or before to have any chance of getting on the FF tickets for even the town council. Last time out we had an abysmal selection of candidates:

Tom McEllistrim: FF Dynasty going back to the Civil War.
Norma Foley: Anbacker account holders daughter.
Jimmy Deenihan: Former captain of the Kerry team.
Martin Ferris: Ex Terrorist
Terry O'Brien: Remember Marks & Spensers
Sammy Locke and Anthony Dineen: need I say more!

[Kerrygold]

Tommy Mac ignored again for a mini merc ( who really thought he would get a junior-except his own supporters who pumped up his chance recently to local gullible hacks ? ), no place at the big or small cabinet table for any Kerry person - would that have anything to do with the ability of any FF T.D. I wonder ? mmm... those clever heads at FF H.Q. think that the voters in Kerry North will never cop on to the fact that they keep on returning a lemon to Dublin....... they could be right.

In my view the incumbents rule the party system. You would have to start out at 18 or before to have any chance of getting on the FF tickets for even the town council. Last time out we had an abysmal selection of candidates:

Tom McEllistrim: FF Dynasty going back to the Civil War.
Norma Foley: Anbacker account holders daughter.
Jimmy Deenihan: Former captain of the Kerry team.
Martin Ferris: Ex Terrorist
Terry O'Brien: Remember Marks & Spensers
Sammy Locke and Anthony Dineen: need I say more!

Why didn't you run yourself?