NorthKerry/West Limerick, South Kerry 2012

[kerrynorth]

A naked bit of electioneering for the Spring's by Michael O'Regan in today's Times. A lot of his contentions are seriously dubious. He seems to take it as a fait accompli that AJ will win a County Council seat. If Terry O'Brien is running then that is problematic. Terry has his own coterie around him to run a strong campaign, he is no longer dependant on the patronage of the Spring's, and there may well not be 2 Labour seats in the 7 seat Tralee EA. There is also this assumption still in the media that the Spring name is still omnipotent in North Kerry. This is a fallacy. Since Dick lost in 02 no Spring has run in any election down here. The Spring's, and Dick in particular, have totally detached themselves from politics in Tralee in the interim and Tralee has changed a lot since then. There is whole tranche of the population from non-nationals to under 30's for whom the 'Spring name' means absolutely nothing.

Secondly, from the prespective of a GE Michael makes a lazy assumption that the 2300 votes the Labour candidate polled in West Limerick would give a AJ a good base in the Limerick area added on is absolutely ridiculous. Only about a fifth of the old West Limerick is going to North Kerry, the vast majority of it rural and not the suburban Limerick areas which would have contributed a lot of the 2300. Michael fails to mention that the areas lost from North to South Kerry will actually hit Labour. The area west of Blennerville is really an upmarket suburban Tralee area where for example a box tallied for rthe eferendum was close to 50/50 and delieverd a nice vote for Terry in 07 as well, and Castleisland always had a nice few handy Labour votes. I would wager that there are more Labour votes lost than gained from Limerick in the revision!

Finally, since the GE not only has the North Kerry Labour Party been basically dysfunctional, it has been positively non-functional (as displayed in the Euro selection convention fiasco). AJ is just not a realistic prospect to win a seat in 2012. He may not even win a County Council seat if Terry O'Brien is motivated for the fight. The best prospect for Labour to win a Dail seat will come with the inevitable making of Kerry into a single 5 seater at the next electoral boundary commission review.

O'Regan's piece is nothing more than a bit of fluff for the Spring's and not a seroius analysis of what is likely to happen in North Kerry.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ire ... 85096.html

[Amach na Casca]

Secondly, from the prespective of a GE Michael makes a lazy assumption that the 2300 votes the Labour candidate polled in West Limerick would give a AJ a good base in the Limerick area added on is absolutely ridiculous. Only about a fifth of the old West Limerick is going to North Kerry, the vast majority of it rural and not the suburban Limerick areas which would have contributed a lot of the 2300. Michael fails to mention that the areas lost from North to South Kerry will actually hit Labour. The area west of Blennerville is really an upmarket suburban Tralee area where for example a box tallied for rthe eferendum was close to 50/50 and delieverd a nice vote for Terry in 07 as well, and Castleisland always had a nice few handy Labour votes. I would wager that there are more Labour votes lost than gained from Limerick in the revision!

If the KN/LW constituency contained NewcastleWest then Michael O'Regan would have a point. It doesn't however, and the vast majority of those 2300 labour votes will be in the new Limerick County constituency. I expect McEllistrom and Deenihans vote to increase on the previous KN GE result because of the boundary change. Whether Ferris can hold his own in the Limerick part of this constituency is anybodys guess at this stage. It is a strongly republican area as has been said, so his seat could be ok, providing SF canvass this area thoroughly of course. Labour will the big loosers here, i've absolutely no doubt about that.

[KingKane]

Local political observers believe that Spring could benefit from transfers in the sizeable Fine Gael vote in the constituency.

With Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael expected to take seats, Ferris would seem to be the most vulnerable to a strong Labour challenge.

"The next general election is a long time away, and anything could happen between now and then,'' said a local observer.

"Arthur John Spring will win council seats in the local elections and after that there will be huge battle for the Dáil. Don't rule out this dynasty resurrecting itself.''

Fine Gael transfers? That would be presuming that Deenihan would top the poll with considerably more than a quota otherwise where will these transfers come from? Local observer my eye. This is one aspect of Irish politics that really gets my goat, the idea that because someone had a uncle or aunt that was a TD they should have first dibs on the seat. From what I saw of the Euro convention, AJ doesn't appear to be much of a public speaker and running a juice bar in Tralee in this economic climate might be enough of a challenge.

[Labour Left]

Let's face it Arthur Spring got more publicity in the national media in the last couple of weeks than most politicians fit in in a Dail term and he showed him self to be a very able media performer on RTE Radio and did well at the convention against the odds of not being the favourite. 80 delegates is a good start to a local organisation behind you for upcoming campaigns.

[Keith-M]

The carve up of West Limerick was the worst thing the commission did. It would have ben far better to reduce Kerry to 5 seats (which is going to have to happen sooner or later unless they move up from 166 TDs). In the end I think the new county Limerick constituency will stay 2-1 to FF, KN/LW will be no change (although SF will be in a real dogfight to hold their seat) and in the new Limerick City constituency FG will lose one of their two seats, with Michael Noonan unlikely to go again.

[Killarneyman]

in south kerry i would find it hard to believe that the healy raes can hold that seat. it would either go to another FF or a new independent, but i cant see the healy raes being returned again, even if it is michael. north kerry/west limerick- 1FF 1FG & 1SF. the FF seat going to Collins FG to deenihan and SF to Ferris

[bobbysands81]

Martin Ferris: Ex Terrorist

Somebody defending this island cannot be called a terrorist.

[grassroots]

Somebody defending this island cannot be called a terrorist.

what rank did he hold in the naval service?

[FrankSpeaks]

Somebody defending this island cannot be called a terrorist.

I wonder what would you call the likes of Michael Stone and Mad Dog Johnny Adair who also claimed to be defending this island?

[bobbysands81]

I wonder what would you call the likes of Michael Stone and Mad Dog Johnny Adair who also claimed to be defending this island?

They're part of the only terrorism on this island - British terrorism.