A single Kerry constituency

[locke]

A number of other threads have been suggesting this is pretty much a certainty for the next election.

It actually looks marginally too big for a 5-seater, but perhaps some areas could be shifted. The most obvious possibility looks like transfering the northern part of Beara into Cork South-West.

Anyway, onto the actual constituency.

These are the figures for party first preferences last week

Fianna Fail 28,172
Fine Gael 22,492
Labour 9,550
Sinn Fein 9,405
Healy Rae 5,993
Green 1,485
Others 1,248

Total 78,345

Where do the seats go?

Fianna Fail have two quotas, but are nowhere near a third seat.

Then it gets interesting.

Healy Rae looks too far behind to survive.

Fine Gael obviously have at least one seat.

The last two seats become between a second Fine Gael, Sinn Fein and Labour.

As Sinn Fein have one candidate taking 80% of their vote, it puts them in a good position

It's pretty much too close to call between Fine Gael and Labour then. A lot would depend on whether transfers went on geography or in the party.

Then there's the whole party strategy.

I would imagine we're looking at FF 3 candidates, FG 3 candidates, Labour 2 candidates, Sinn Fein 1 candidate, the Greens 1 candidate.

Assuming they are all around to fight next time, which Fianna Fail candidate gets ditched?

How will the seats break geographically? 3 in the north and 2 in the south?

[Defeated Romanticist]

2 FF, 1 SF and 2 FG. Labour are finished in Kerry.

[QuizMaster]

On those figures, FF3, FG1, Lab1.

FF get Healy Rae's votes.
SF continue to fizzle out.

Figures don't stay the same from one election to the next though, as we are all learning.

[locke]

Figures don't stay the same from one election to the next though, as we are all learning.

I realise that.

Also, if Deenihan or O'Donoghue were to choose not to stand again, it would have a massive impact on their parties.

[QuizMaster]

It would be hard for any party to go with the single candidate approach.
The small ones will have to though.

[PatMcL]

With a bit of work by SF in the Sth Kerry area their seat in an expanded constiuency will be maintained no problem. 2FF, 2FG and 1 SF. Labour a distant memory and the Greens relevant only in the heads of persistent bloggers.

[jayblue]

A Kerry 5 seater is a very much possibility after the current review, with a population of around 139,616 this would equate to 27,923 per seat. And reckon it would be 2 FF, 2FG and 1 Lab in 2012, I see the door been closed on SF in 2012

[cropbeye]

Techno question for anyone. How does the auto reelection of a Ceann

Comhairle work if the constituency they used to represent no longer

exist . So do they auto have a right to demand a seat in an entirely new

constituency. If J O'Donoghue bought a holiday home in Beara and it was

relocated into West Cork could he then be returned for that area.
I can see again the work of the hand of Bertie

the most devious of them all.

[ivnryn]

Techno question for anyone. How does the auto reelection of a Ceann

Comhairle work if the constituency they used to represent no longer

exist .

The CC can pick any constituency he likes. The only requirement is his new constituency must have some overlap with his old one. Obviously, if his old constituency doesn't change, then it is the only one with overlap.

[dubsthcentralboy]

A Kerry 5 seater is a very much possibility after the current review, with a population of around 139,616 this would equate to 27,923 per seat. And reckon it would be 2 FF, 2FG and 1 Lab in 2012, I see the door been closed on SF in 2012

Well, given that the Ceann Comhairle will be returned automatically in the five-seater Kerry constituency Fianna Fáil can count on winning at least two of the five seats (three would be a massive ask) leaving two seats to be filled. FG have at least one so the last seat would look like a dog-fight between Labour and Sinn Féin (possibly throwing a FGer in to the mix as well).