Radio Kerry/Kerryman Kerry South Poll

[kerrynorth]

Full Results as follows:


O'Donoghue FF 33%
Fleming FF 14%
Fitzgerald FG 13%
Moynihan-Cronin Lab 13%
Healy-Rae Ind 13%
Sheehan 9%
Ni B....... SF 3%
Hickey Green 2%

[meriwether]

Thats good for FG, innit?
Sqeeze in for the last seat possibly?
Its a cock-fight however.

[kerrynorth]

Most likely at the expense of Moynihan though!

[meriwether]

Most likely at the expense of Moynihan though!

Yeah I know, pity.
Where will O Donoghues transfers be going to most, excluding Fleming?

[kerrynorth]

Well first of all I reckon that a lot of O'Donoghue's West Kerry vote will now migrate to Cosai with the definite prospect of a West Kerry seat, maybe at a guess about 5-600 West Kerry voters may switch or about 1.5% of the total vote. After Fleming, Healy-Rae and Cosai will be the main beneficaries. Plus the Green Hickey is West Kerry based and will transfer locally to Cosai.

I always thought that the previous polls showing Sheehan outpolling Cosai were never realistic!

[Supersid]

2 seats for FF on these numbers, last seat a toss up between FG and Labour.

[locke]

How would Healy-Rae's transfers work out?

If they stay within the gene-pool, Fianna Fail should be safe for two, but if they scatter everywhere you have three candidates with a viable chance of the last two seats.

[kerrynorth]

How would Healy-Rae's transfers work out?

If they stay within the gene-pool, Fianna Fail should be safe for two, but if they scatter everywhere you have three candidates with a viable chance of the last two seats.

I don't think it really matters at 47% or anything close to it there is 2 FF seats plus FG are well odds to take the Labour seat.

[an seabhac]

Well first of all I reckon that a lot of O'Donoghue's West Kerry vote will now migrate to Cosai with the definite prospect of a West Kerry seat, maybe at a guess about 5-600 West Kerry voters may switch or about 1.5% of the total vote. After Fleming, Healy-Rae and Cosai will be the main beneficaries. Plus the Green Hickey is West Kerry based and will transfer locally to Cosai.

I always thought that the previous polls showing Sheehan outpolling Cosai were never realistic!

Would have to disagree with this assumption. Cosaí has disenfranchesied a lot of the West Kerry Gaeltacht for supporting Dingle/Daingean Uí Chúis gang rather than supporting the real Gaeltacht. Plus O'Donoghue's impact on getting the Slea Head road fixed in super fast time will stand to him. Local issues always win out in West Kerry

[locke]

Ordinarily, I'd expect 60-70% of a Fianna Fail surplus to remain within the party, however that vote is so high, a lot of it must be coming from non-FF sources, so it could be lower here.

Without vote management, Fleming will have around 19% after the distribution of O'Donoghue's surplus. With a strong second Fine Gael candidate and a few left-wingers, he'd need to attract around 40% of Healy-Rae's vote to certain of gettting elected. I suspect that's reasonable if there are only three candidates for it to go to, so it probably doesn't matter. I was just wondering if anyone local knew better about how those transfers might work out.