Waterford - A Sinn Fein Gain

[ctr]

Anyone think that SF will gain a seat in Waterford at the next GE? If so at who's expense?

I think Martin Cullen's seat is at risk especially if
1. No Radiotherapy &
2. he is demoted in the reshuffle.

[Danny]

Careful, Sinn Fein had a great result in Waterford City, but you have to take Waterford County in account, and that was a weak showing. A FF would be the most likely target, [ And I would agree a SF seat is highly likely] but it would be Ollie Wilkinson. Martin Culllen did top the poll.

[ctr]

yes but Ollie Wilkinson votes come from the west of the county and Cullen's from the city and east exactly where SF did well. The FF vote dropped severely in the locals and if repeated in the GE then his (Cullen) seat is in danger.

[Danny]

OK, I wasn't aware of that, you know your stuff. But do you really think SF can unseat a Minister. All predictions say he will retain his Ministerial Merc. It would be a fine acheivement.

[ctr]

I hope not as the last thing Waterford needs is a SF TD and what it needs most is a Minister. But a minister who can deliver on the one thing this area wants most ....Radiotherapy. This is exactly what Cullen can't do. btw if you blew €50 million would you keep your job?

[Shane]

Ollie has good support in West Waterford. He'll pull through I think. But we don't know what way the election will shake up next time. What if Brian O' Shea doesn't run? He's getting on a bit now, and surely LAB want to introduce a bit of new blood? I think if O' Shea doesn't run again, (which is a possiblity) the LAB seat might be lost.

[ctr]

I would of though that before the locals but the Labour Vote held and they took an extra seat in the seat. It was the FF vote which went to SF. Brian O'Shea took the 3rd seat on just under 13.5% first pref. and with a swing against the Government I cant see them doing worse.

Anyone know the percentage Labour vote in the county as a whole?

[thegeneral]

Interesting points, I agree with most of them.

I would consider Ollie Wilkinson safe. He got a tremendous vote out of Lismore in 99 and his son was comfortably elected this time. FF will probably run two out of west waterford again like last time, though may not be Kenneally as Dungarvan was a very bad result for FF. The way I see it there has traditionally been 1 city and 3 county TDs. The main threat to Cullen will be SF, who can depend on a good WP transfer as last ge showed though they may eat into LAB vote also.

Paddy Gallagher's old seat for WP was taken by O'Shea so there is definetely a left seat here. If a vote pact is called for in advance of 2007 then I think LAB will suffer, this has been the case of every other pact they've entered into as FG benefit the most as the biggest party. However it would seem Cullinane won't be elected by the city alone, can he assume much support elsewhere?

[cain1798]

While the European Elections are a poor guide to the Generals, worth noting that Cullinane polled 10,000 votes in Waterford City and County.

[petronius]

Well unless things are sorted out - there will be a strong independent hospital/radiotheraphy candidate - who could well get elected based on the feelings at the moment.
this would be at the expense of the 2nd ff seat, so that could well stump sf hopes for a gain.
Unless labour enter a pact with fg and their vote suffers, o'sheas seat could be in trouble as well
1 ff
1 fg
1 ind
1 lab (maybe sf on a good day for them)