Niall Ferguson on Obama and Egypt

[Telemachus]

A few people still think that democracy will turn the followers of the crescent moon into freedom loving burger chomping Americans or equality loving Grande Latte drinking spectacle wearing Europeans.

This is not the case, despite what clintbushbama would say.

Hopefully the army will squash the muslim brotherhood and install a new dictator, that is the best to hope for. As Niall points out there is no large secular democratic opposition in Egypt, but there is a large bunch of lads called the Muslim brotherhood who would love to be democratically elected then abolish democracy.

[Capaillin]

Ferguson should always be taken with a pinch of salt.

A spark appears to have lit a fire across many North African and Middle Eastern lands.

[Chrisco]

The only problem with this is that Niall Ferguson knows very little about the Middle East and even less about Egypt specifically.

Despite West's paranoia, new regime will be closer to Ankara than Tehran - The Irish Times - Sat, Feb 12, 2011

[Panopticon]

Incorrect OP - there is the Wafd Party, and the Secretary General of the Arab League will stand in elections, as well as the new Shabab civil society movement that will inevitably carry on the spirit of the revolution.

It is clear that the army did not support the anti-democratic secular government. It is even more clear that they will not stand for an anti-democratic Islamist government. Therefore, the worst-case scenario in a democratic Egypt is where we are right now - a Turkish-style military elite acting as guardians of democracy. The worst-case scenario in army-backed permanent despotism is a return to Mubarak. Ask the Egyptians which one they would prefer.

[Telemachus]

Incorrect OP - there is the Wafd Party, and the Secretary General of the Arab League will stand in elections, as well as the new Shabab civil society movement that will inevitably carry on the spirit of the revolution.

It is clear that the army did not support the anti-democratic secular government. It is even more clear that they will not stand for an anti-democratic Islamist government. Therefore, the worst-case scenario in a democratic Egypt is where we are right now - a Turkish-style military elite acting as guardians of democracy. The worst-case scenario in army-backed permanent despotism is a return to Mubarak. Ask the Egyptians which one they would prefer.

Its not incorrect, the muslim brotherhood is by far the largest unofficial political organisation in Egypt. The seem to run an awful lot of things there.

When these elections come about we will certainly find out!

[Verhofstadt]

Hopefully the army will squash the muslim brotherhood and install a new dictator, that is the best to hope for.

Yeah, those Egyptians can't be trusted with democratic freedoms, they might elect a warmonger who lies about WMD in other to justify invading other sovereign states.. or send state employed assassins to Dubai hotels to murder their supposed enemies.. or launch commando raids on ships carrying humanitarian aid..

Do you realise how incredibly offensive you statement is?

[Panopticon]

Its not incorrect, the muslim brotherhood is by far the largest unofficial political organisation in Egypt. The seem to run an awful lot of things there.

When these elections come about we will certainly find out!

"there is no large secular democratic opposition "

This is clearly incorrect! Who ran the protests? A non-religious campaign including the Muslim Brotherhood AND others.

[eoghanacht]

A few people still think that democracy will to the followers of the crescent moon turning into freedom loving burger chomping Americans or equality loving Grande Latte drinking spectacle wearing Europeans.

This is not the case, despite what clintbushbama would say.

Hopefully the army will squash the muslim brotherhood and install a new dictator, that is the best to hope for. As Niall points out there is no large secular democratic opposition in Egypt, but there is a large bunch of lads called the Muslim brotherhood who would love to be democratically elected then abolish democracy.

YouTube - Harvard's Niall Ferguson Schools Her on Muslim Brotherhood and Caliphate

The best for who?

You?

An islamophobe sitting in a cosy bedroom in western Europe? ffs

[CookieMonster]

"there is no large secular democratic opposition "

This is clearly incorrect! Who ran the protests? A non-religious campaign including the Muslim Brotherhood AND others.

A non-religious campaign including the Muslim Brotherhood?

[owedtojoy]

Wasn't it George W. Bush who used to trumpet the possibility of "Arab Democracy"? Now when it is coming (or might be coming), the right are wimping out. They would really prefer nice, predictable Dictators or Sheikhs who take the money, buy plenty of aeroplanes and guns, do a bit of torturing for the west on the side, keep the oil pumping and generally are good for photo-opportunities.

Such was the Shah of Iran. After he was overthrown by his people, the fundamentalists were able to hijack the revolution. There is a danger of that happening also in Egypt, but the Muslim Brotherhood is not as stong there as it is made out to be.

Obama could not win this one ... If Mubarak pulled a Tienanmen Square, Obama would be blamed for allowing it. If Islamic fundies take over, he will be blamed also, for "losing" Eqypt as if it was US property. If democrats win, and adopt an independent foreign policy, he will be blamed for "endangering Israel". Best to keep his own counsel and do what he thinks is best.