Time to call it... final predictions!

[Printer]

Since lots of other constituencies have a prediction thread going why not start one for Mayo:

1. Ring
2. Kenny
3. Carty
4. Flynn
5. Murray

(I know 99.99% of you will roar at me for saying Murray will take the last seat and that I dont have a clue what Im talking about [probably true] but thats my prediction!)

[Cashel Hill]

Ring, Kenny, Flynn, Calleary, Carty.

[eurocrat]

1. Ring
2. Kenny
3. Beverly
4. Carty
5. Crowley

Fairly confident about that after the massacre in Salthill.

(edited as I accidentally put in Carelly for Crowley, mea culpa.)

[wiseowl]

the prospects the 3 from the fianna fail gene pool winning are nil. it will be either 2fg, 1 ff, bev, and cowley. or 3fg, 1ff and bev. no other likely outcome.

[Avns1s]

Read tomorrows Connaught Telegraph. Carty and Cowley gone!

Ring, Kenny, O 'Mahony, Flynn and Calleary to be elected.

That would be my prediction too.

[ergo]

Connauht Telegraph now beating the FG drum and can hardly be considered impartial objective observers.

The polls exaggerate M RIngs and Enda Kennys vote because of all the publicity. They will not poll so high.

The O'Mahoney bandwagon is derailed by the shocking defeat. ALlowing FG first two seats, a tussle between Bev, Carty Calleary Chambers and possibly Murray for other three. Think Murray will pick up an ROssport votes that Cowley was working for

[Avns1s]

Connauht Telegraph now beating the FG drum and can hardly be considered impartial objective observers.

Why not? I never saw any impartiality until now and that's based on the value of the Taoiseach to the region that was so badly neglected for years by FF in particular.

The polls exaggerate M RIngs and Enda Kennys vote because of all the publicity. They will not poll so high.

We'll see. In fact, the response to Kenny in Castlebar and surrounding areas could trip up Beverley.

The O'Mahoney bandwagon is derailed by the shocking defeat.

Rubbish. The response to John in East Mayo hasn't altered one bit, apart from the FFers stirring this tripe. They (obviously) weren't voting for him anyway but by sending fraudulent texts to local radio stations and coming out with this rubbish, they believe they might save their beloved (but useless) John Carty. Hopefully, they won't succeed and that area can have some proper representation. It might be a good time to remind you of the newspaper front page headline in Mayo and I quote "Is this the worst politician in Mayo?" Can you remember the picture beside it. I can, because I have suffered his ineptitude for the past 5 years.

ALlowing FG first two seats, a tussle between Bev, Carty Calleary Chambers and possibly Murray for other three. Think Murray will pick up an ROssport votes that Cowley was working for

I do hope Calleary gets his seat as he is somewhere close to being suitable material for the Dail unlike some others.

Chambers won't be next, nigh or near.

Murray will poll well, i'd say between 4000 and 5000 but won't get transfers.

Cowley will do well enough but nothing close to being elected. He has been a real let down since he got elected. The electorate won't buy the health ticket (to nowhere) twice.

[ergo]

Re Avns1 comment on O'Mahoney
THe football defeat was bad as to call into question why Moran was fited and O'Mahoney installed. Many GAA people annoyed.

Many FG councillors in east Mayo annoyed at being asked to stand aside for O'Mahoney, plus the fac that a hardworking Councillor Mulherin did not seem to be getting the same support. As Cllr COOke recently reminded FG did not even ensure all their members on Ballina TC voted for her as Mayor/Cathaoirleach - I cant recall the official title.

From the three polls this weekend it seems the former undecided votes are moving to Fianna Fail. It looks like FG wont make it, or if they do, would require a combination with Labour, Green or even other independants which would have an uncertain future in times of global economic securty.

Re John Carty - I think you are being rather hard on him. The Mayo Echo piece is just the view of the Mayo Echo editor - journalists are not infallible. He is decent modest man, and works hard.

Calleary would have better potential if he had some local authority experience - representation is now a complicated matter and a potential rep should serve his time.
He has the advantage of urgent realisation in Ballina that they let votes leak to G COwley last time - things will be tighter this time- Either he or Mulherin will come thru.

Chambers should not be underestimated - he went close last time, altho in hospital for the last 4 or 5 days of the campaign. He had an impressive team of Councillors and party members working with him.

I agree Murray has potential, and as a recent recruit to SF is not involved in criminality associated with the "armed struggle" I would prefer to hear him condemn it.

Anyhow, we will all know on Friday - it is an exercise in democracy and I hope the manual count remains a feature in our elections/

[kevmy]

I'm going to stick with my prediction of 3FG, 1FF and 1Ind/FF

As one poster said whatever the chances of getting 3FGer's with 50-55% of the vote the chances of getting 3FFer's (including Bev) with 35% of the vote is impossible.
If Callery gets in Mulheirn won't, if Carty gets in Johnno won't.

Still is a possibility of Cowley sneaking home though. SF won't win seat as they won't get many transfers. The only guys there likely to get transfers of are Cowley (Rossport issue) and Carty (Geographically) and both of these will prob be ahead of Murray when elimination time comes around.

[FgExile]

Many FG councillors in east Mayo annoyed at being asked to stand aside for O'Mahoney,

[color=blue]## 'asked to stand aside'.....they were not given much choice ##[/color]


plus the fact that a hardworking Councillor Mulherin did not seem to be getting the same support. As Cllr Cooke recently reminded FG did not even ensure all their members on Ballina TC voted for her as Mayor/Cathaoirleach - I cant recall the official title.

[color=blue]## hardworking ? mabye as a solicitor she is.........and maybe the members in Ballina didnt like being told what to do again ##[/color]

Calleary would have better potential if he had some local authority experience - representation is now a complicated matter and a potential rep should serve his time.

[color=blue]## being a member of MCC is nothing like being a TD and Calleary has plenty experience of it first hand in his family.....he's an affable and competent guy and I wish him the best if luck as he's the best chance of good representation for North Mayo ##[/color]