Mayo predictions for 2007 election

[Printer]

What are your predictions for the vote allocation in Mayo this time round.

Fine Gael to get three seats?
Jerry Crowley to get back in?
Sinn Fein to make serious gains and stand a chance?
Fianna Fail to hold its seat?
Greens to make any impact?

etc etc etc

[Defeated Romanticist]

Always thought FG would win three here but got talking to a Mayo FG friend of mine today and he told me there wasn't a chance. He said Rings surplus wuld go everywhere esp. Flynn also Cilleary, as the only Ballina (or was that Castlebar) based candidate would clean up their.
My call
2 FG
1ind
2FF
so 3FF in reality

[The Trinity Politick]

Its impossible to PREDICT TRANSFERS!!!! Why do people keep doing this!! Anyone could get elected on the 4th or 5th seat . Look at Neol Grealish. He won with only 5% FP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Printer]

easy now...

just looking for what people think! Is that such a crime.

I think (hope) its:
2 FG
1 SF
1 IND
1 FF

[hiding behind a poster]

easy now...

just looking for what people think! Is that such a crime.

I think (hope) its:
2 FG
1 SF
1 IND
1 FF

Sorry mate. Either 3FG 2FF, or 3FG, 1FF and Beverley. SF aren't in the game.

[Printer]

easy now...

just looking for what people think! Is that such a crime.

I think (hope) its:
2 FG
1 SF
1 IND
1 FF

Sorry mate. Either 3FG 2FF, or 3FG, 1FF and Beverley. SF aren't in the game.

I know you are more than likely right but i can always hope!

[Printer]

And im watching Calleary on Prime Time now... not impressing me AT ALL.

[Nedz Newt]

Like DF, I thought 3 FG here, but word is O'Mahony may not make it. I've reliably heard resentment expressed that he expects to get votes purely because of his GAA work, other connected to FG not happy he's on ticket at all and supposedly not trying a leg for him.
Bev + 1FF sure, + possible 2nd FF at expense of Cowley = disaster for Inda.

[kevmy]

If we look at this from a definitely-in point of view, then we can say that we have definetly got 2FG and 1FF after that it's up for grabs.
Personally I can't see Beverly and 2 FF's getting in it would essentially be 3 FF's in Mayo. Which seems massively unlikely.
I can see 2FG 1FF 2Ind but I'm not sure if Jerry Cowley will get in this time his Rossport campaign has alienated more voters than it gained IMO.
I can still see a third FGer falling over the line not necessarily Jo'M though. I think a lot of hardcore FG vote will not vote for Enda or Ring and row in behind the other two. Also both are new candidates they so don't have the ground support of a sitting TD. Don't underestimate imponderables like Galway-Mayo match 4 days before election, a massive GAA game ensuring more media converage for Johnno.
On a personal vote I think John Carty has been the most invisible TD Mayo ever had. Say what you like about Beverly but she kicked up a fuss and fought the Mayo corner sometimes at least this IMO will see her get in and very possibly Carty out his opinion polls are poor for sitting TD.
My prediction: 3FG, 1FF, 1Ind/FF

[The Analyser]

If we look at this from a definitely-in point of view, then we can say that we have definetly got 2FG and 1FF after that it's up for grabs.
Personally I can't see Beverly and 2 FF's getting in it would essentially be 3 FF's in Mayo. Which seems massively unlikely.
I can see 2FG 1FF 2Ind but I'm not sure if Jerry Cowley will get in this time his Rossport campaign has alienated more voters than it gained IMO.
I can still see a third FGer falling over the line not necessarily Jo'M though. I think a lot of hardcore FG vote will not vote for Enda or Ring and row in behind the other two. Also both are new candidates they so don't have the ground support of a sitting TD. Don't underestimate imponderables like Galway-Mayo match 4 days before election, a massive GAA game ensuring more media converage for Johnno.
On a personal vote I think John Carty has been the most invisible TD Mayo ever had. Say what you like about Beverly but she kicked up a fuss and fought the Mayo corner sometimes at least this IMO will see her get in and very possibly Carty out his opinion polls are poor for sitting TD.
My prediction: 3FG, 1FF, 1Ind/FF

That is what I hear on the ground. Various polls have put FG anywhere from 51% to 56% (the latter a FF poll done for a candidate last month). The odds on FG not getting 3 on those numbers are slim.