Private polling and focus groups indicate Lisbon 2 may be lost: Sunday Times

[Freeborn John]

Strange to say that a (weighted) majority vote is undemocratic and that a right of veto by every member is democratic.

That is the difference between democratic legitimacy at national and international level. Decision-making by unanimity at international level is the only way to ensure that the majority will of the national 'demos' is not overruled. Hence we see the norms of decision-making by majority at national level, and decision-making by unanimity in international organisations when taking political decisions binding on their members. The EU has violated these norms and is suffering the consequences.

[Catalpa]

It also suggests they're starting to go home - but of course you didn't think of that.

Yeah but 10s of thousands more have arrived!:

[kerrynorth]

Private polling available to the government is said to show support for the treaty at about 55% — not a great place to be starting any referendum campaign — and a solid No camp of between 35% and 40%. So the margin between the two sides is already narrow and history has shown that the gap invariably reduces as polling day comes near. In both the EU referendums which ended up defeated — the first Nice vote in June 2001 and the first Lisbon one last summer — the Yes side started out at 60% or more and saw that apparently healthy lead disappear as the campaign matured and the confusion thickened.

Kevin Rafter: Impenetrable Lisbon wording is no help - Times Online

Its all going to come down to differential turnout on the day and the rock solid No's will turnout whereas the 'soft' Yes' will not in the same numbers. Trying to make sense of the above polling data indicates to me that it is presently 55-45 Yes when don't knows are excluded. However, there are also indications from previous polls that some No voters are reluctant to admit this to pollsters.

If Cowen is going to 'lead' the Yes campaign as he is promising then this could turnout to be a strong No victory.

[Catalpa]

It also suggests they're starting to go home - but of course you didn't think of that.

-and 10s of thousands more have arrived here this year!

[dalywise]

The Yes crowd haven't started yet apart from Pat Cox. He definitely deserves the commissionership as he's running a one-man show. The main campaign will start in September and the No lot will then have to play on a level playing field. And let's hope that fools from the EU Embassy are sent on a holiday to Ouagadougo until 3 October to escape own goals and stupidity like this - What exactly are we reforming in this treaty?: ThePost.ie

[Lefronde]

According to Matt Cooper in tomorrow's Sunday Times private polling and focus group research in recent weeks indicate that the public mood has turned against Lisbon and that Yes proponents now believe that it may be lost contrary to recent public polls.

Matt Cooper: Ganley’s departure will boost Yes side - Times Online

Given that the Murdoch press has led the vanguard against Europe for the last two decades after he was done in by the European Commission, I don't believe a word of it and neither should any sensible person.

[eurosceptic]

Private polls always tend to give nice results. I think we have a contest here.