Private polling and focus groups indicate Lisbon 2 may be lost: Sunday Times

[Freeborn John]

For all the Yes-men out there...

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUvQzgxTxmE]YouTube - bob dylan - only a pawn in their game[/ame]

A Brussels politician preaches to the poor Irishman,
"You got more than the Yanks, don't complain.
You'll be bigger than them, if you vote yes to Lis-bon" they explain.
And the Neo-con's name
Is used it is plain
For the EU politician's gain
As he rises to fame
And the disenfranchised European remain
On the caboose of the gravy train
But it ain't him to blame
He's only a pawn in their game.

[Sucker Punch]

I'm giving an opinion. But if you want me to parse it a bit, here's what I'd say:

- Taking the electorate's ill will towards FF out of the equation, I think there's probably a solid-enough majority (say 55%) for a Yes to Lisbon in October;

- However, if the electorate uses Lisbon to get at FF (e.g. using it as a referendum on NAMA), I think that will be an indication that Ireland is becoming recalcitrant and effectively ungovernable under FF [incidentally, given the way FF are prepared to shaft the taxpayer to protect incompetent banks and cowboy developers, it's not unreasonable for voters/taxpayers to use whatever means at their disposal to bury the whole NAMA idea - but if that's the way the opinion polls are going, Cowen should get out of the way and call a Gen E].

Of course, my viewpoint is clearly informed by my own support for Lisbon. IMO Lisbon is an absolute necessity for progress in the EU in the coming decade. As our economic health depends entirely on how the EU performs internationally, if the EU stalls, we fall. And then there'll no way out of our predicament for most of the rest of my adult life.

Fair enough analysis in the first part of your post, to be honest I think we'll be in uncharted waters in this respect, and frankly thank God for that, because those waters we'll be leaving are bespoiled and stagnant. The cronies on this Island need to be cut adrift and this country needs to reimagine itself after the uncontrolled materialist binge that has warped the spirit of the country into unbridled greed, where it has been increasing accepted to take advantage of other people for personal gain.

As to the second part of your post, the real danger for the EU is that if it disrespects its own rules and seeks the route of obfuscated political legitimization at every turn. It will fly apart long before any other block comes on to the scene to threaten European common interests. Personally I am skeptical when it comes to an outwards political projection by the EU. If we are to take the example of Iraq, it is quite clear that a unified political voice is firstly premature, and may in fact be perilous for the cohesion of 27 MS.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Suggested no-campaign slogan: "Bring Him Down".

[CookieMonster]

Here's one for all those Libertas supporters:

YouTube - Savage Garden - Crash 'n' Burn

Awh, bless. It's like I have a little follower.

[McDave]

Personally I am skeptical when it comes to an outwards political projection by the EU. If we are to take the example of Iraq, it is quite clear that a unified political voice is firstly premature, and may in fact be perilous for the cohesion of 27 MS.

Yes, probably true about Iraq. When you look at how at odds Schroeder, Chirac and Blair were on Iraq, you can imagine the fur and feathers flying at the European Council, only for some blathery communique to emerge. The divisions within the EU would have had the effect of there being no common EU position on Iraq under, say, Lisbon rules (arguably there would not have been the possibility anyway under the Lisbon TEU Article 21(2) principles). This would have still left the 'Coalition of the Willing' countries free to join up with Bush.

[He3]

Fair enough analysis in the first part of your post, to be honest I think we'll be in uncharted waters in this respect, and frankly thank God for that, because those waters we'll be leaving are bespoiled and stagnant. The cronies on this Island need to be cut adrift and this country needs to reimagine itself after the uncontrolled materialist binge that has warped the spirit of the country into unbridled greed, where it has been increasing accepted to take advantage of other people for personal gain.

As to the second part of your post, the real danger for the EU is that if it disrespects its own rules and seeks the route of obfuscated political legitimization at every turn. It will fly apart long before any other block comes on to the scene to threaten European common interests. Personally I am skeptical when it comes to an outwards political projection by the EU. If we are to take the example of Iraq, it is quite clear that a unified political voice is firstly premature, and may in fact be perilous for the cohesion of 27 MS.

Well said.

[hiding behind a poster]

Suggested no-campaign slogan: "Bring Him Down".

But you keep claiming that a majority of the Irish people are opposed to Lisbon, opposed to unelected elites, another Act of Union, Vichy traitors, blah blah blah. If that's the case then surely you'd prefer them to just vote on the basis of the Treaty itself. Or are you afraid that those No side lies about taxation, defence, abortion etc have now been shown up for what they are, and the people will now disregard them?

Looks like you are.

[marmurr1916]

Personally I am skeptical when it comes to an outwards political projection by the EU. If we are to take the example of Iraq, it is quite clear that a unified political voice is firstly premature, and may in fact be perilous for the cohesion of 27 MS.

The common foreign policy seeks to project a common voice when one is found: frequently no such voice is found and is unlikely to be over Iraq and many other contentious foreign policy issues.

If the EU states can't even agree on recognising Kosovan independence, then agreeing on even more complex geo-political problems such as Iraq is even less likely.

Of course, the lack of unity on many foreign policy issues (and thus the lack of a common EU foreign policy on those issues) gives lie to the often-repeated claims that the EU is (or is becoming) a monolithic, federalised 'super-state'.

[marmurr1916]

Suggested no-campaign slogan: "Bring Him Down".

How about campaigning on the treaty itself for a change.

Too scared that wouldn't work?

Interesting to note that Sinn Féin have decided not to attack the legal basis of the Guarantees:

Ms McDonald said the guarantees secured at the European Council meeting in June were nothing more than a series of clarifications of some aspects of the Lisbon Treaty.

SINN FÉIN vice-president Mary Lou McDonald has dismissed the legal guarantees on the Lisbon Treaty secured by the Irish Government from its EU partners as nothing more than a series of clarifications.
...

"They do not alter the text of the treaty in any way nor do they change the impact that the treaty will have on Ireland and the EU. Their legal status is irrelevant...".

I think we can take that as implicit recognition from SF that the Guarantees are legally binding and that they're not going to challenge their legal status for fear of being seen as stupid.

Not that that's going to stop anybody here.

[Tressell]

Suggested no-campaign slogan: "Bring Him Down".

Works for me, Now to get the t-shirt printed.