Private polling and focus groups indicate Lisbon 2 may be lost: Sunday Times

[hiding behind a poster]

If the Ganley polls had him on 14%, then it was quite reasonable to assume he would be in with a shot, given Dana got in on a smaller 1st pref vote than that.

Dana was nothing like as transfer-repulsive as Ganley was. Whether you like it or not, voters not giving transfers to a candidate is just as much of a democratic statement as anything else. Fact is that if the voters of NW had wanted Ganley elected, then they'd have elected him.

And they didn't, so they didn't.

[Oike]

Lisbon could be defeated again. I know lots of people that voted No last time and have absolutely no intention whatsoever of changing. In fact, the re-run of the ballot has made many people even more discontent with FG, FF, Greens, and Labour.

Most people will make up their minds on the merits of the Treaty. Nonetheless we will be told by FF/FG/Lab/Greens that there are other issues. Sorry folks, stop insulting us. I only heard the word "conscription" 2 days after the poll in a Sunday paper in an article by some right-wing ant-democratic hack. Never mentioned in the campaign, nonetheless the political establishment cite it as an issue! It's like something out of a Orwell novel!

Many people seriously distrust the political establishment. If FF-FG-Labour-Greens and then all their friends in big business get behind something many people will instinctively be very suspicious. Against a background of lay-offs, Gardai physically removing workers from work, severe health cuts, school kids in pre-fabs and rising dole queues I really don't blame anyone for using this vote to give Brian Cowen and his friends in FG-Lab-Greens a good ould kicking.

I'll still be voting No.

[TommyO'Brien]

John Drennan seems to agree it could be defeated. Encouraging:

Grabbing at any old straw now, are we?

If this is your siege mentality now, wait until October. Your blood pressure will be through the roof.

A tip, FT. We are now in the Silly Season. It is called that for a reason. Most stories and commentaries right now are silly, pointless and filling up space. Predictions by anyone in papers, from the Yes or No side, as to how the referendum will go are makey-up space-fillers. So no one in their right mind on either side pays any heed to August commentary. Commentary at the best of time is dodgy. In August it is simply BS, and that goes for both sides, Yes as well as No.

John had 700 words to fill, and having run out of ideas ran up a quick article probably on Friday evening on his laptop. Columnists do that often when they are stumped for anything real to write about. And when it comes to August, if you are a political writer your produce rambling pointless articles on politics to fill up space if you are lucky. If you are unlucky your paper does what the Irish Times did to poor Miriam Lord and sent her up Croagh Patrick on Reek Sunday to write about it. (Poor Miriam. Bet her feet hurt. Wild horses would not have dragged John up there!)

[turdsl]

Dana was nothing like as transfer-repulsive as Ganley was. Whether you like it or not, voters not giving transfers to a candidate is just as much of a democratic statement as anything else. Fact is that if the voters of NW had wanted Ganley elected, then they'd have elected him.

And they didn't, so they didn't.

Very true,something similar that happened to Paschal Donohue in the By -election, he just was not wanted, that's democracy,

[BodyofEvidence]

Its thanks to the EU Commission that we taxpayers will be paying inflated prices for land and property which may not appreciate for decades.

Nope. have you actually readvwhat they say? If you havent, theres a long, somewhat technical, but really useful discussion on irisheconomy.ie on LTEV. Go on, facts cant hurt you

[turdsl]

voted no the last time, no change in the treaty,will vote no again,

[zebedee bong]

lisbon 2 eh? well it certainly has to be a NO. i mean can someone please explain why the big rush to change the present system for an one of ominous uncertainty? my present frame of mind suggests that a successful NO vote will send out a clear message that there will be no changes until the damn treaty is rewritten or presented in a way where all citizens know precisely what it means. it seems very insincere for the government not to be informing us well in advance of the details, you know to give us time to think it through. instead we hear of promises made that guarantees are given which turn out to be FALSE PROMISES AGAIN...& again & again...

[Jethro]

Matt's article states:

'Even though the Lisbon treaty has no direct bearing on the economy, the support we are getting from the European Central Bank is keeping us afloat. While this is deemed necessary to protect the euro, there are undoubtedly ways to make life more difficult for us if we don’t back the European project.'

Does anyone have any perspectives on how the EU will make life more difficult for us? Can there not be a diversity of opinion within the bloc?

If they propose to reduce transfers it would ultimately mean lesser govt intervention across the bloc. This would be better in the strictest sense, for the economy of the EU, no?

[Baron von Biffo]

lisbon 2 eh?

No it's still Lisbon 1. They just have bigger guns to our heads this time.

[hiding behind a poster]

No it's still Lisbon 1. They just have bigger guns to our heads this time.

I don't remember any gun being held to my head when I voted the first time round. I wasn't intimidated or pressurised in any way whatsoever. I just went into the polling booth and voted in secret. You can do that too, you know.