... but, IMO, the wheels will be set in motion for a two speed Europe. The current arrangements will be allowed to stand for the 27 and all new entrants. Accession conditions will be eased to allow new member states in pretty short order.
A new core EU arrangement (with about 10 members, initially) will then emerge over the next 10-15 years including the following essential features:
- A Constitution for (Core) Europe;
- Eurozone membership;
- Institutions which will ensure a common stance within the wider EU;
- A coordinated foreign policy; and
- A core EU military (army + arms industry).
Non-core EU states might be allowed to join individual chapters of Core EU Constitution (say membership of the Euro), but will have to subscribe to the conditions set out therein, which by my reckoning would also require subscribing to any other provisions deemed essential to the stability of the Euro (e.g. harmonisation [but not setting] of tax rates).
* * *
The funny thing about this scenario is that Ireland might have a much more serious debate about a new core Europe than it's prepared to engage in over Lisbon. Probably because there'd be no BS to hide behind. You'd be for it or agin it!!! Would we be for it? I actually think in some perverse way we might be.



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