How can Lisbon II be defeated.

[hiding behind a poster]

A parallel might be drawn with Denmark when it used to put European issues to referenda. The pro-EU parties always won around 80% of the vote, but the Danes continued voting no from time to time. It's like that here too. The people regard EU issues as lying within the sphere of influence of the Irish Constitution, and therefore to be dealt with via referenda. That causes them to regard it as safe to vote for pro-Lisbon parties that they agree with on other issues.

As I was saying, either you were wrong pre-election, or you're wrong now. Which is it?

[FutureTaoiseach]

As I was saying, either you were wrong pre-election, or you're wrong now. Which is it?

I see no inconsistency. I base my argument largely on the fact that the local and euro election results (see below) correlate with respect to the vote of the pro-Lisbon parties. I am not basing it on a double-standard where I interpret my side winning seats as a sign that the no vote is certain to win or a vote for pro-Lisbon candidates in a different light with respect to the prospects for the yes side. Fair play to Leo Varadkar tonight on Vincent Browne saying that this will be a "difficult" referendum because of the economy and how the electorate will be in a "foul humour". Does this sound like a party that is committed to a yes vote? I think not.

[hiding behind a poster]

I see no inconsistency. I base my argument largely on the fact that the local and euro election results correlate with respect to the vote of the pro-Lisbon parties. I am not basing it on a double-standard where I interpret my side winning seats as a sign that the no vote is certain to win or a vote for pro-Lisbon candidates in a different light with respect to the prospects for the yes side. See below:

Are you pretending to be thick, or does it just happen naturally? Let me make it clear - again. Before the elections, you were claiming that Ganley, McDonald and Sinnott would win, because of the supposedly strong anti-Lisbon vote in each of those constituencies. As it happens, none of them won. So, either there isn't a strong anti-Lisbon vote anymore, in which case you were wrong when you said there was - or the people simply didn't consider Lisbon as an election issue, in which case you were wrong when you claimed, pre-election, that they would.

So, which is it? Which were you wrong on?

[FutureTaoiseach]

I think I overestimated the extent to which Lisbon would be the defining issue in the Euro elections. I accept that point. But I stand over my arguments against the Treaty itself. Electorates, unlike a treaty, are organic.

[hiding behind a poster]

I think I overestimated the extent to which Lisbon would be the defining issue in the Euro elections. I accept that point. But I stand over my arguments against the Treaty itself.

I wasn't asking you about your "arguments" (such as they are) against the Lisbon Treaty. At least you accept that you were wrong pre-election. That's a start.

[Ah Well]

I think I overestimated the extent to which Lisbon would be the defining issue in the Euro elections. I accept that point. But I stand over my arguments against the Treaty itself. Electorates, unlike a treaty, are organic.

FT and HBAP ... would ye ever think about starting your own private Thread on the Lisbon/Euro thing or preferably even maybe a private 2 man P.ie group to "debate" thingies

Westsawake started this Thread specifically for discussion amongst No to Lisbon types (maybe they should have started a P.ie Group in hindsight) ... but ye are full on engaged in a personal debating competition here.

Could ye take it elsewhere? pretty please

[hiding behind a poster]

FT and HBAP ... would ye ever think about starting your own private Thread on the Lisbon/Euro thing or preferably even maybe a private 2 man P.ie group to "debate" thingies

Westsawake started this Thread specifically for discussion amongst No to Lisbon types (maybe they should have started a P.ie Group in hindsight) ... but ye are full on engaged in a personal debating competition here.

Could ye take it elsewhere? pretty please

Well given the extent to which the No side brought up irrelevant issues in the first referendum campaign, I reckoned I'd just try and fit in.

[Ah Well]

Well given the extent to which the No side brought up irrelevant issues in the first referendum campaign, I reckoned I'd just try and fit in.

Ah! but there are those of us who are die hard "No-ers" too not engaged at all in irrelevant issues and using one's own noggin in the alternative to decide ... but it takes all types on both sides perchance

[hiding behind a poster]

Ah! but there are those of us who are die hard "No-ers" too not engaged at all in irrelevant issues and using one's own noggin in the alternative to decide ... but it takes all types on both sides perchance

I've no problem with such people, and fully respect their viewpoint. Its the ones who are making up shyte and peddling it as the truth that I've no time for.

[west'sawake]

Are you pretending to be thick, or does it just happen naturally? Let me make it clear - again. Before the elections, you were claiming that Ganley, McDonald and Sinnott would win, because of the supposedly strong anti-Lisbon vote in each of those constituencies. As it happens, none of them won. So, either there isn't a strong anti-Lisbon vote anymore, in which case you were wrong when you said there was - or the people simply didn't consider Lisbon as an election issue, in which case you were wrong when you claimed, pre-election, that they would.

So, which is it? Which were you wrong on?

Fairpoint, but could I ask you HBAP, seeing as Gilmore said the Lisbon Treaty is dead, is Labour, pro or Anti Lisbon now? Do you think those who voted Labour consciosuly though they wre voting for a yes to Lisbon party. Do you think Declan Bree supporters in Sligo who gave Susan O Keeffe a great vote are pro Lisbon, regardless of her own views?

Now I have to confess as one of those who expected at least three clear No to Lisbon MEPs to be very very disappointed with the results but believe it or not I see clear advantages to no longer having Declan Ganley as one of the frontmen, because it would always be cast back at him that he had no mandate, and he rather than the issues was becoming the issue, ditto Kathy Sinnott, having no mandate either.

What you are forgetting though is that there are also a much bigger number of Independents returned and the little tentative research I have done shows that the majority of them are Anti Lisbon. I think we may well have an even stronger grass roots local leaders, non mainstream party effort this time in each county,and whole swathes of working class Dublin motivated by Higgins. Also do not underestimate the local party machines of S.F. Healy in Tipp, and other rainbow type allaince fiefdoms, (Dun Laoighre, Cork North, Limerick East, etc).

Maybe I'm clutching at straws, but I was somewhat comforted by the last MRBI Poll that gave a solid 28% no vote and the Yes only a little above 50%. Sounds familiar doesn't it!

Let the games begin.

Useful NO slogans.

What part of No do they not understand?

Europe, but not at any price, Vote no.

Vote Yes or else!

Once it's given away, its gone forever!

We gain nothing and lose a lot.

They told us the fundamentals are sound now they tell us to trust them on Lisbon!

Lisbon the Fear factor! How dare you vote no.