Has the no to Lisbon campaign in Ireland been terminally damaged?

[CookieMonster]

Commiserations CookieMonster, Democracy is a though old game.

Dick Tuck's statement springs to mind...

Any hope you giving your thoughts on where Libertas got it wrong?

Be interesting to hear the views of "an insider"

Probably not, no.

[Chuck de Mawl]

Libertas' involvement in the Lisbon Treaty campaign was never about choosing Libertas over something else, it was about arguing the reasons to reject Lisbon. We put forward that choice over the last six months and we got our answer on Friday.

Libertas played a part, a significant one, in the Lisbon treaty campaign but I met far too many good people from all sides of the political divide during the Lisbon campaign to claim credit for the result. And at the end of the day it was the voters who made the final decision, not us.

With all due respect, could you explain how the MEP elections gave you your answer on that question?
The next Lisbon referendum will be before the end of the year, and it'll be YES or NO on the day, whereas, the elected MEPs will be in their seats for years voting on a whole range of issues, only some of them related to the issues contained in the Lisbon Treaty.
If I didn't want Ganley in the European Parliament, that is not saying anything about my position on Lisbon. I oppose Lisbon, and so does Ganley, but I'll cast my vote in the referendum and it'll be by ticking a box next to "No /Níl" not one that says "GANLEY, Declan. LIBERTAS".

Declan Ganley has as much right as anyone else to continue to oppose the Lisbon Treaty.
He doesn't need a mandate, cos it's a referendum, not a parliamentary decision.

[eurosceptic]

I still dont get what the crisis is here for the no side. Yes its a dissappointment but remember the main parties colluded to keep lisbon off the agenda for the euros to prevent an anti-lisbon vote. The replacement of mary lou with joe higgins i think will benefit the no side. Kathy Sinnott only got in by a hairs breadth in 2004 anyway. Libertas failed to win a seat but for a new party only formed last year they did rather well, a lot better than the greens! How often will a party form one year before an election and come close to winning a seat? As i have said a diversification of the no side is needed to prevent some sort of justin barrett 2.

[Adrian Wainer]

It will pass. Full stop. Arguing about its merits and demerits here or elsewhere won't make a whit of difference.

The public mood has changed and the majority of people will vote Yes in the next referendum.

It would be an easier victory if the government fell and was replaced by a Fine Gael-Labour coalition.

However, even that's not necessary as the Yes campaign will be led by Fine Gael and Labour anyway.

Brian Crowley is still personally popular enough in Munster to be an asset to the campaign if he puts enough of an effort in.

The Yes side has learned its lesson from the last campaign and will campaign with intensity to ensure a Yes vote.

The Lisbon ratification process in Ireland is essentially a re-run of the Nice ratification process.

Unfortunately, the Yes side last June did not learn the lessons of the first Nice referendum.

This time round they will have learned and hopefully they'll remember in future referendum campaigns.

Human beings are social animals and if people are told that Lisbon II will be voted in, before the referendum takes place and regardless of how they vote it will be voted in, they may well change their mind to vote yes to it, thus it becomes a self fulling prophecy that it will be voted in. The fact of the matter is that, there is nothing inevitable about there being a yes vote to Lisbon II. People can vote No to it and if enough people vote No to it, it will result in a No vote to Lisbon II. It would not surprise me if there is a No vote to Lisbon II, the Irish people are asked to Vote on Lisbon III but there you go, one is dealing with people who have absolute contempt for democracy.

Best and Warm Regards
Adrian Wainer

[drkpower]

I think you'll find your been a wee bit pedantic. You clearly understand my point, yet try take a cheap shot. I've tried to simplify my point for the masses. I admitted i wouldnt understand every niche of the lisbon treaty, but have a grasp of its fundamentals and how they affect the Irish, it is simply bad for us longterm.

You are quite right; I am being pedantic. I am being pedantic because when people post sensationalism (ie. "How can people enter into a "contract", when its not understood???!!??!!") like you did earlier, such nonsense has to be deconstructed even to the point of being pedantic.

You coiuld easily have made a reasoned point with a little bit of nuance but you didn't; that is why I am being picky.

[drkpower]

Suggesting that a contract for buying a house and the EU constitution are some way similar, in the way that you are apparently suggesting is completely ridiculous. For example, you would not get a nice guy who you would drink with down the pub who was say a graphic designer and knew nothing about contracts to check out the contract, if one was buying a house. Neither would one get somebody who was an expert solicitor but had been disbarred and just released from prison for cheating people buying houses, by telling them rubbish about contracts they were signing. I am sure there are nice, decent and honest people in Fianna Fail but unless they are experts in EU constitutional Law, their opinion is no more valid on the Lisbon II constitution than the fictional graphic designer's opinion on a house contract. Furthermore, why would anyone have any confidence in an argument that, if Fianna Fail thought the Lisbon II treaty was dangerous garbage that should not be touched with a barge pole, they would tell the Irish people to vote against it? Take the proposed blasphemy legislation, Dermot Ahern does not seem to me to be a complete moron, if he is not a complete moron, why would he be proposing such blasphemy legislation when it dangerous, nasty and unnecessary if it is not an attempt to ingratiate Fianna Fail with Saudi Arabia? Also if people are going to own a house they going to need a contract, why is Lisbon II needed, what do they need to do in the European Union that they can not do at the moment?

Best and Warm Regards
Adrian Wainer

Adrian, you started that paragraph by making some sense but seemed to have trailed off into tangents and side and non-issues.

It seems your core point is that politicians are not the ideal person to give you advice on the Lisbon "contract"....?

Thats a fair point but not entirely true. Lisbon, as an international treaty, is a political instrument as well as a contract. It is legal, economic, political and social in nature. Therefore, the views of politicians are pertinent. So are the views of lawyers, economists, social commentators and many more.

As you declare that my analogy was ridiculous, I presume you didnt understand it; let me clarify. My analogy with a contract to buy a house is that most people cannot be expected to interpret and understand that contract fully themselves; equally, most people cannot be expected to interpret Lisbon fully, they need specialist advice. The views of many are needed.

[Chuck de Mawl]

Human beings are a social animals and if people are told that Lisbon II will be voted in, before the referendum takes place and regardless of how they vote it will be voted in, they may well change their mind to vote yes to it, thus it becomes a self fulling prophecy that it will be voted in. The fact of the matter is that there is nothing inevitable about there being a yes vote to Lisbon II. People can vote No to it and if enough people vote No to it, it will result in a No vote to Lisbon II. It would not surprise me if there is a No vote to Lisbon II, the Irish people are asked to Vote on Lisbon III but there you go, one is dealing with people who have absolute contempt for democracy.

Best and Warm Regards
Adrian Wainer

Agree re the self fulfilling bit. That's part of the strategy for the yes side.
As for Lisbon 3? I think we would manage to raise a big angry mob to persuade them to drop that idea if they ignored a second NO vote.

----------------------------
"Don't follow the Exeter?"

[Chuck de Mawl]

It is legal, economic, political and social in nature. Therefore, the views of politicians are pertinent.

No, because they are lying b@st@rds with a conflict of interest, and besides that, they will give their 'advice' in the form of a point scoring debate.
Soundbytes do very little to advance learning of complex issues.

To take your house sale analogy, it would be like taking advice on the contract from a business associate of the vendor or the estate agent employed by that vendor.

[drkpower]

Soundbytes do very little to advance learning of complex issues.

No, because they are lying b@st@rds with a conflict of interest,

You don't see the irony there, do you chuck?

[Chuck de Mawl]

You don't see the irony there, do you chuck?

: ) I see your point, but I don't think that 'Politicians are lying b@st@rds' needs to be fleshed out much in this forum, given the volume of evidence, and I did expand on it in my analogy, which I notice you did not address, other than in a quip (and does that count as an tangental soundbyte?)