Article by The Economist on Libertas and Lisbon

[GordonGekko]

On the campaign trail Mr Ganley assures voters that, with a high enough turnout, Libertas may win 106 European Parliament seats. At a stop in the port of Killybegs, a retired teacher, Jim Boyle, declared that locals would be “idiots” not to elect a man destined to have such influence in Europe, murmuring, eyes a-gleam: “It’s like being Obama’s home state.” Alas for Mr Boyle, the predict09.eu website, which aggregates polling data across Europe, shows Libertas-affiliated candidates on track to win just two seats in a single country, France. Mr Ganley himself seems set for defeat, polling half what he needs for a seat.

Charlemagne: Libertas or freedom? | The Economist

[jcdf]

If at first you do not succeed, try, try again.

[JCSkinner]

Aye, that predicteu website seems to be designed to underestimate parties who haven't run before. Why am I not surprised?

The methodology behind this prediction of the outcome in the June 2009 elections is as follows.

First, we collected the vote-shares each national party received in all the previous European Parliament elections, since 1979, in all 27 member states.

Second, we developed a statistical technique to work out the best ‘predictors’ of these national party vote-shares. We found that the most accurate model of party performance in European Parliament elections is to start from the opinion polls close to the elections, and then modify predictions made on the basis of these polls with information about the vote-share a party received at the previous national election, whether a party is in government, whether a national party is an anti-European party, and whether the European election was held within a year of a previous national election...

Methodology

[dotski_w_]

Aye, that predicteu website seems to be designed to underestimate parties who haven't run before.

Yes, and the polls that have Ganley on 9% and Simons on 1% seem to be designed to underestimate candidates who will never run again.

[JCSkinner]

Well, only one poll matters, of course.

[Verhofstadt]

Not wishing to question the wisdom of JCSkinner.....

The latest predit09 data has the following :

Ireland

The governing Fianna Fáil party in Ireland is at an all time low in the opinion polls, while the main opposition party, Fine Gael, is running ahead. However, we do not expect many seats to change hands in Ireland because of the small regional districts. The opposition Labour Party should also gain seats as a result of the swing away from Fianna Fáil. Meanwhile, the new anti-European Libertas party, led by Declan Ganley, is hoping to win at least one seat in Ireland, but we currently do not expect that to happen. The Fianna Fáil MEPs are likely to leave the Union for a Europe of the Nations (UEN) group and join the Liberals (ALDE).

Seems reasonable to me (Labour gains in South and East}

[Observer]

Not wishing to question the wisdom of JCSkinner.....

The latest predit09 data has the following :



Seems reasonable to me (Labour gains in South and East}

The vote percentages seem off though. I'd expect FF, the Greens and Libertas to be all 2 or 3% lower and Labour, SF and the independents/others all 2 or 3% higher. FG seem there or thereabouts.