Yes Vote at 52% in New Poll on Lisbon

[OMahonyMunster]

There is now a clear Yes for Lisbon II emerging in Ireland. Ganley's lack of an impressive showing in the North west will straighten the Yes side.,Indeed without his funds it will all but kill off a serious challenge. tThis despite the FF Green government's unpopularity.

It puts perspective on how private funding had a great effect in the last referendum. Is there any effective opposition possible after the death of Libertas in June? ganley has promised to butt out of politics if he loses in June which is now more likely than ever.

The key element of the poll is that it shows support for the treaty holding very solid since February while opposition to it has softened. Among the most well-off AB social category support for the treaty is now running at 67 per cent, while opposition to it has dropped to 17 per cent.

In regional terms, the Yes lead is now biggest in Dublin, where 58 per cent support the treaty and 27 per cent are on the No side.

In Connacht/Ulster the Yes lead is 52 per cent to 29 per cent, while in the rest of Leinster it is 51 per cent to 31 per cent.

Munster is the least enthusiastic region with 47 per cent to 28 per cent.

Asked if, in the current crisis, it is better for Ireland to be part of the EU, an overwhelming majority of 79 per cent to 10 per cent say Yes, with a very small number of undecided voters at 11 per cent.

Support for Yes vote on Lisbon continues to grow - The Irish Times - Mon, May 18, 2009

[FutureTaoiseach]

One health-warning is that the poll question specifically mentions legal-guarantees on keeping the Commission and on abortion and neutrality - guarantees that as yet do not exist. In that context, this poll can be seen as hypothetical, until such time as the assurances come into the public-domain. If the public are not convinced of the credibility of such assurances, the polls could shift in the opposite direction. The question of "being in the EU" is especially disingenuous, considering no country can be expelled from the EU. I would add that there is still majority opposition to the Treaty among SF voters, and among less well-off CE voters it is very close (40-38). In 2001, support for Nice started at 52-20 and the rest is history. Don't count your chickens before they're hatched.

[OMahonyMunster]

Not my chicken just of interest. Though there seems to be a huge gap betwee Yes and No in the quote in the OP.

UKIP at 17% in new poll , neck and neck with labour in the UK for the EU elections according to SKY News

[jmcc]

Immigration concerns, if not properly addressed, will kill Lisbon 2. Perhaps the Left is stupid to notice that Europe is beginning to shift Rightwards again.

Regards...jmcc

[OMahonyMunster]

I think that many have noticed but I worry that the political mainstream will naval gaze again while the ultra right rise up. The UKIP in the UK are doing what Libertas hoped to do , at 17% in a poll today. It will be the nationalist rather than the pan European right wingers who will gain from the current rise in xenophobia.

The taxi guys with the blue stickers should be boycotted and have their plates taken from them. It is illegal to dispaly political messages on Taxi signs or vehicles. If people had any cop on they would photograph the cabs with the stickers and plate numbers visable and submit compliants against all the drivers, plate owners etc.

[OMahonyMunster]

Immigration concerns would not be addressed by merely rejecting Lisbon, we are in the EU and the Irish benefit from freedom of movement greatly.

[Corcaigh33]

Ireland has yet to have a conversation with itself about its relationship with Europe. We joined an economic community, at that time there was a debate about it. Almost every time since there has been money on the line and we have taken the billions and voted yes. It is therefore no surprise that when there was no money on the line and we actually had the time to think about Europe we started asking alot more questions especially considering the not insignificant ramifications of Nice and Lisbon to our equal status among member states. It is clear from the debate post Lisbon that such equality was a myth to begin with. Europe was quite happy to drive on without us and might still do that. In that context, it would be hard to see why Ireland should change its mind when no changes have been made to the proposal. EXCEPT, this is not what the next Lisbon treaty referendum will be about......it will be put to the Irish people as "in or out" deal......as a last chance saloon for the Irish economy........as, effectively, a referendum on our continued membership of the EU........the details of the treaty, its key impacts on Ireland which were so examined despite the lack of campaigning from FF, FG or Labour in real terms will become irrelevant. In my opinion, this poll should be seen in that context. If Nicolas Sarkozy promised 10 billion in aid for the worst hit economy on the planet in the morning, watch that 52% hit 80-90%. Does it make Lisbon more acceptable? Course not.....but I am sure something like that is in the offing when the referendum is announced later this year.

[jmcc]

Support for Yes vote on Lisbon continues to grow - The Irish Times - Mon, May 18, 2009

The Irish Times cannot be considered to be an impartial news source on Lisbon 2. It quite clearly abandoned any claim to journalistic objectivity when it openly campaigned for Lisbon 1.

Regards...jmcc

[marmurr1916]

Ireland has yet to have a conversation with itself about its relationship with Europe.

We've had plenty: referendums on accession, on Single European Act in 1987, Treaty of Maastricht 1992, Treaty of Amsterdam 1998, Treaty of Nice 2001 and 2002, Treaty of Lisbon, 2008 and 2009.

By October we'll have had 8 separate referendums on European issues, an average of one every 4.5 years.

[ibis]

The Irish Times cannot be considered to be an impartial news source on Lisbon 2. It quite clearly abandoned any claim to journalistic objectivity when it openly campaigned for Lisbon 1.

Regards...jmcc

Just to say - and without necessarily claiming that it is true of the IT - that it's perfectly possible to objectively decide that something is right and campaign for it. If someone was indecisive about whether to leave an abusive partner (I'm sure ES/FT etc will like the analogy), one could objectively say that they would be better off by doing so and to strongly urge such a course of action. What would be subjective is if one were to urge them to leave someone one just didn't like.