Sunday Business Post poll

[arnaudherve]

The Sunday Business Post publishes today a poll according to which the Yes vote intentions lead by 42%, The No remaining at 39%. You can read the full article here.

If I did not have full confidence in the professionalism of the SBPost, I would notice that an accumulation of details seems intriguing:

- This poll contradicts the Irish Times poll substantially

- This poll appears just after the Irish Times poll

- The SBPost is a business publication

- The article includes two paragraphs to assert that Fine Gael and Labour remain faithful to those parties' leaders, which is exactly what those leaders need to say to their electors and militants in dire emergency.

But of course, this poll remains entirely reliable.

It specifies that "among voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote the Yes side leads by 46 to 37 per cent, with 17 per cent still undecided". Which means that the electors who didn't certify their intention to vote are not included, and that proportion in the poll results is not specified, nor their possible preference. On the other hand the 17% mentioned are part of those who declared their intention to vote, but don't know for which side yet.

[Podolski]

It's my understanding that they started collecting data for the SBP Poll on Friday of last week (May 30th) and finished on Wednesday, so it is not newer than the Irish Times TNS/MRBI poll and some of the data is older. The one common factor is the trend - a swing towards the No vote.

Obviously two polls taken at more or less the same day can be very different if they were taken in different demographic areas and of course there is always random element to polls, but the fact that the swing is in both polls is encouraging for the No side. Of course the kitchen sink and the black propaganda / red scare have already started from the Yes side. - Bracing myself for the onslaught on today's "This Week" on RTÉ Radio 1.

[baldur0300]

<MOD>Already being discussed here. Locked</MOD>