As many FF Voters as FG are opposed to the Lisbon Treaty

[KingKane]

From the poll in last weekend's Business Post a rather basic fact appears to have been overlooked which is that as many FF people as FG people have yet to be convinced of the merits of the Treaty.

Quoting from the Post article. "The intensive campaigning by the new Taoiseach Brian Cowen, who has risked his political honeymoon on the success of the referendum, is bearing fruit with Fianna Fáil voters who now favour the treaty by a huge margin. For the first time, an absolute majority of Fianna Fáil voters say they will support the treaty.

However, despite an active Fine Gael campaign and the appeal by party leader Enda Kenny to ‘‘put the country first’’, Fine Gael voters are evenly divided between the Yes and No side. This may be explained by many voters identifying the referendum as a proposal from the government and, therefore, something to be opposed."

The full report is here - http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/SB ... Report.pdf

So FG support is supposedly 28% and FF is on 40%, and we heard that FG is evenly divided on the subject while an "absolute majority" of FFers are supportive of the treaty which I believe we are to take to mean 50%+1 of the FF support meaning 20% of the electorate. Allowing for the same amount of undecided voters within FF and FG and the general electorate which is 25%. So we get
FF 40%, of which 20% Yes, 10% undecided, 10% No.
FG 28% of which 10.5% Yes, 7% undecided, and 10.5% No.

Since this is a poll, and we're dealing with a margin of error of +/- 3%, I think it is reasonable to suggest that An Taoiseach Brian Cowen has as many of his own supporters to convince to not vote No as does FG. And he actually has more voters in total to win over than does FG.

After all when you go into the polling station a single FG vote is worth no more that a single FF vote.

[adrem]

not going to knock your stats but surely it also means that a substantially higher of FF voters will vote yes than FG voters. Given that FG are pushing a yes vote should they not aim to also achieve an "absolute majority in favour also" - wouldn't that be in the best interest of the broader yes campaign??

I think there is a bit of a mental conflict for FG and Lab - they want Lisbon to pass but not by a landslide because they don't want it to be seen as a victory for FF. Also (cf Lab councillor posters) they are looking to see what broader benefits they can get from the campaign. FF are covering their asses by accusing FG/Lab of not getting a majority of the party behind the yes campaign just in case it's a no or a close yes - so they can say well look over 50% of the FF voters who voted were Yes - if the same was true of FG and Lab voters then it would have been carried with a margin.

My own view is this kind of bickering and positioning has no place in the campaign - this is too important. FF should shut up and focus on getting it's members out canvassing and voting Yes - as should FG - as should Lab

[FutureTaoiseach]

I don't know if I fully agree with that analysis. We would need exact statistics on the yes/no/dk balance among the party-supporters to come to that conclusion.

[baldur0300]

They are some extremely dodgy maths KK.

No reason to assume that an absolute majority = a bare majority of FFers support the treaty. Indeed the quote from the paper:
Fianna Fáil voters who now favour the treaty by a huge margin
suggests strongly that is not the case. If it was as you suggest, why wouldn't it be stated as such?

[KingKane]

They are some extremely dodgy maths KK.

No reason to assume that an absolute majority = a bare majority of FFers support the treaty. Indeed the quote from the paper:
Fianna Fáil voters who now favour the treaty by a huge margin
suggests strongly that is not the case. If it was as you suggest, why wouldn't it be stated as such?

Well, 20% versus 10% which is a 2:1 ratio might well be deemed as a "huge margin". It doesn't take away though that as many people who support FF as support FG are currently set to vote No.

As regards the absolute majority, the manner in which it was reported reads as if it was just an absolute majority which would be 50%+1. The full numbers would certainly make for interesting reading.

[kerrynorth]

The maths and your argument don't really match up KK.

[droghedasouth]

KK - an absolute majority of FF voters support the treaty means that at least 50% of all people who describe themselves as FF supporters are Yes voters.
Possible figures for FF supporters might be Yes 50%, No 25%, Dont Know 25%.

By contrast FG might be Yes 37.5%, No 37.5%, Dont Know 25%.

[KingKane]

The maths and your argument don't really match up KK.

Please feel free to illustrate how...

[KingKane]

KK - an absolute majority of FF voters support the treaty means that at least 50% of all people who describe themselves as FF supporters are Yes voters.
Possible figures for FF supporters might be Yes 50%, No 25%, Dont Know 25%.

By contrast FG might be Yes 37.5%, No 37.5%, Dont Know 25%.

which equates to
From FF at 40% of the electorate, 50% of that is 20% Yes, 25% of that is 10% undecided, and 25 of that is 10% No.
From FG at 28% of the electorate 37.5% of 28% is 10.5% Yes, 25% of that is 7% undecided, and 37.5% of 28% is 10.5% No.

with a +/- 3% margin of error in the poll, I can't see how there is any difference between 10% of the electorate and 10.5%.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Okay I've since read up on this and it appears that the most recent Red C poll had FG voters tied 36-36 on the Treaty. I think that represented a rise in both the yes and no sides but the no side up 8% to 3% for the FG yesses. If so that is a bigger swing to the no's than nationally.