RedC/SBP Poll

[kerrynorth]

Yes 41+3 No 33+5.

[FutureTaoiseach]

It's narrowing. This is the highest no vote in a pre-referendum EU treaty poll in history. The yes side has gained 3% and the "No's" 5%. The yes lead has fallen from 16% to just 8%%. The momentum is with the no's.

In this poll, 5 eights of the previous DKs who have now decided went to the no side. If that continued till polling day it's 50-50. If it's 50-50 among the general-public, then it's likely the no side, who are more likely to vote, will win.

[Rebelman]

interesting figures the don't knows are down to 26% now. Our lead has narrowed now to 8% overall but its still all to play for based on these figures. As always with these polls the devil is in the detail.

[forest]

eye but we have passed the 40% mark despite the huge resources of the No side

[FutureTaoiseach]

eye but we have passed the 40% mark despite the huge resources of the No side

You were on 45% in the last TNS-MRBI poll in 2001 on Nice. I think around 40% in this country want a Federal Europe anyway. The majority don't.

[Rebelman]

taken with the party support figures as always red c gives us plenty food for thought

[Sidewinder]

Just crunching some numbers for the laugh...

If the remaining Dont Knows continue to break in the same 3:5 ratio for the rest of the campaign until none are left (I know, I know, it's just for fun) then when all Dont Knows have made up their minds Yes gains 9.75%, No gains 16.25%. Final result:

Yes 49.75%
No 49.25%%

What are the narrowest referendum results in history? IIRC Divorce II and Abortion III were very, very close?

[Defeated Romanticist]

taken with the party support figures as always red c gives us plenty food for thought

What are the party support figures?

[FutureTaoiseach]

Just crunching some numbers for the laugh...

If the remaining Dont Knows continue to break in the same 3:5 ratio for the rest of the campaign until none are left (I know, I know, it's just for fun) then when all Dont Knows have made up their minds Yes gains 9.75%, No gains 16.25%. Final result:

Yes 49.75%
No 49.25%%

What are the narrowest referendum results in history? IIRC Divorce II and Abortion III were very, very close?

Yes but remember, it will also come down to who turns out on the day. And it is agreed on this forum that the no side are more motivated in EU referenda. I think the no side will win. And yes they were the 2 closest, of just over 50% each.

[forest]

40% would actually be a high figure to want a federal europe before any political campaign for it I would be very happy to start from that point
Eurobaromator show high support in ireland for a common defense and foreign policy

A lot has happened since 2001
There is still a lot of dont know and I think all of us can say this is going to be very close id say 51 - 49 or so