The reasons why people will vote No to the Lisbon Treaty

[kerrynorth]

I know there are a number of threads on the Lisbon Treaty already, however, none of them really address the reasons that people will vote No in the referendum. I do not know if they will be a majority but the Yes and No arguments advanced in other threads bear no relationship with the factors the vast majority of people will consider when voting.

First of all there is no real downside to voting No. It's a free penalty kick in effect. Whereas much of the discussion on p.ie is on the merits or demerits of the Treaty in the real world very few people are considering these factors. In reality the two single biggest factors in determining how people will vote will be:

Satisfaction with the Government and Taoiseach; and,
The state of the economy.

In reality both are fairly intertwined. However, those factors will be much in a minority as of course in much of the country there will be local factors such as Shannon Airport, cancer services in Sligo/Casteltbar/Midlands etc. Plus there will also be sectional interests like teacher class sizes, water bills for schools, hospital services, agency workers, benchmarking for public servants etc. etc. the list is endless.

What I am saying is that this referendum will end up in effect as a local/special interest auction fest with all type of interests saying they will be voting No on the basis of whether their particular issue is addressed or not. In those circumstances parsing the minutitate of the Treaty will be meaningless. It may be 6 months out from the referendum but I bet you this is how it will pan out.

[constitutionus]

im voting no because its all stick and no carrot but i get what your saying. people will feel stabbed in the back and lied to by bert an co over election promises deferrred and tribunal revelations and use this as a stick to beat the gov with. i wont matter the oppositions in favour of this treaty too.

chuck in the various other complaints they have , and the revelations still to come between now and may/june that we cant even imagine yet , and venom that mightve been kept for the local elections could get poured out here. particularly when you think that when Newstalk did a vox pop on this virtually no one knew what the hell they were talking about.

considering there nothing tangible in this treaty that the public can identify with ala the NICE treaty and enlargement it makes it much more likely to be shot down. especially if theres a "stick it to the politicians" mentality amongst the wider public

PS actually ,if its still an issue a year from now, i can see the whole "water rates for school" being used as a bludgeoning instrument. it doesnt help bertie himself said "the EU made me do it, nothing i can do about it ". those charges will hit every parent in the state when their schools come looking for donations. its a very simple example that peopl can get behind and you wouldnt have to make much of a stretch to say "what else will they do that our gov will say they cant do anything about in future!"

[Inishowen]

If they dont get their finger out the govt will lose the referendum over the issue of water charges on primary schools. Saying it was all the EUs fault was a really stupid move.

[rockofcashel]

Because of our disgraceful treatment in successive Eurovision Contests since the passing of the Nice Treaty

[905]

Because of our disgraceful treatment in successive Eurovision Contests since the passing of the Nice Treaty

There's method to his madness...
I dislike the thread title, it impiles that people WILL vote no. But Iknow it wasn't intentional.
Has anyone mentioned neutrality yet? Still a sticky point with some people, what with the Dev book out and all.

[ibis]

How about "the Irish economy may be about to go down the toilet - who will bail us out?"

All very well kicking Bertie and co in the teeth, but kicking the EU in the teeth at this juncture may not be entirely wise.

[barrym]

I appreciate there are a number of threads (any chance David will rationalise?) but can I ask - in view of the fact that Bertie will import Merkel and Sarko, et al - where is the funding coming from for the undoubted push FF/PD (and the Greens??) will make to avoid the humiliation of a 'no'?? Are the funds controlled in the same way as dail elections??

Bye, Barry

[Respvblica]

How about "the Irish economy may be about to go down the toilet - who will bail us out?"

All very well kicking Bertie and co in the teeth, but kicking the EU in the teeth at this juncture may not be entirely wise.

I agree, though the Yes camp are beginning to sound like the boy who cried wolf with their dire predictions in the case of a NO in all those previous referendums. Unfortunately with everything going wobbly in the economic sector this might just be the time when the wolf really is at the door.

I think the people will vote no for the reasons outlined by KN above, i.e. all the wrong reasons. It would be great if our NO vote would cause the EU to wake up, but it wont because like us most of the people of europe couldnt really care less beyond domestic concerns.
The timing of this couldnt be worse with regard to business attitudes though. The spotlight will be on us just when our economy is bombing. Whatever the true reasons a NO vote will be taken negatively, and that is something we have to accept. We may be lucky and escape direct repercussions, but the indirect ones will only mount.

[kerrynorth]

Because of our disgraceful treatment in successive Eurovision Contests since the passing of the Nice Treaty

There's method to his madness...
I dislike the thread title, it impiles that people WILL vote no.

Are you expecting everyone WILL vote Yes? If so your comment is ridiculous. I said in the OP that I did not know whether the No vote would be a majority or not!

[The OD]

Trying to build up a good idea of what exactly this treaty is about and I am afraid that its leaning towards a big fat NO from The OD.