Last year the person-to-person betting exchange market was a fantastic indicator of how the vote was going, during polling hours. It was predictiong a NO long before it became clear that would be the case.
Right now the market says:
Will Lisbon II be passed?
Yes: 1.11(90% chance)
No: 10.0 (10% chance)
Total Traded Voilume: €172,386
(Yes/No probability stats compiled using 'last traded price' data)
To bet, or not to bet? That is the question.
It's not scientific. Betting indices can be manipulated by a few wealthy individuals. I take it with a pinch of salt, after what happened last time with Paddy Power.
A person to person excahnage is extremely difficult to manipulate, and in any case, I am not entirely sure why anyone would want to try to do so.
To bet, or not to bet? That is the question.
Bloody elites.Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach
I think it was fairly accurate last year. Any idea what it was at the start of polling day last year?
Update at 12 noon
Yes: 1.06 (94.3%)
No: 17.5 (5.7%)
Using last traded price to compile data. Looking good for a YES.
To bet, or not to bet? That is the question.
It plays no role in determining the outcome.
It's as good an indicator as anything else right now.
To bet, or not to bet? That is the question.
In how many hours will be know the real results?
On rtl news they are saying they expect a 70 percent for the YES.
Still, even as the investor consensus ravages the euro, it's worth remembering that the same herd instinct not long ago was pronouncing last rites for the dollar. Last year, as China's central bank chief called for a new global currency and Russian central bankers dumped greenbacks to buy euros, many saw the dollar's decline as inevitable. Now, the dollar is riding high, and the euro looks bedraggled.
"Views might change very quickly"
The nonsense about the electoral-process in this country is that the count doesn't even start until the following morning. RTE normally doesn't even release their exit-poll data until the late afternoon. You will not get any actual returns until tomorrow. Not even tallies.
Can I also add that betting-indices can be manipulated by wealthy individuals. May I also add that it was not that difficult to predict a no vote last time with the TNS-MRBI poll showing a "no" side lead. In that context, the betfair results last year might have been more a reaction to that poll rather than predictive in their own right.
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