Why the majority of the Irish electorate will (I fear) vote 'Yes'.

[Caothaoir]

It will have NOTHING to do with understanding the facts and figures of the treaty and making a rational decision based on them.
Instead the decision will be an emotional one.
The elite and their media are fully aware of this and have directed their message towards the emotions of the Irish electorate. Primarily fear.

The bizarrely ambiguous posters, e.g. "Yes To Recovery", "I'm Safer In Europe" are perfect examples.

(The No side attempt to appeal to emotion too, of course, but it's not in the same league as the negative, manipulative crap we've been bombarded with from the media etc.
Also, the Yes side have claimed time and time again that a major reason for the No vote last time was the lack of straightforward facts available to the electorate. Is this their solution to that?)


Ultimately it boils down to the following:

1 The Irish people have very little self-confidence or sense that they are of any importance/consequence.

2 They have been made to feel that voting No has brought Ireland into direct conflict with powerful forces. We have stupidly dared to interrupt their important business and made ourselves a nuisance to them and their displeasure with us can, and will, have dire consequence for our puny, little nation.
But...

3 Thankfully, we now have a chance to undo this terrible mistake and let the important men in Brussels and Strasbourg get on with their work, their ire directed away from us while we breathe a sigh of relief. Who are we to do anything else?



It's not very flattering is it? but I believe it's the simple truth.
We'll pretend, of course, (as we did after Nice) that the Irish electorate changed their minds because the alterations addressed their concerns but this is bullsh1t. It's a face-saving exercise. An excuse to spout out to bewildered foreigners (and perhaps also to ourselves) in a feeble attempt to gloss over the pathetic truth.

[johnfás]

It will have NOTHING to do with understanding the facts and figures of the treaty and making a rational decision based on them.
Instead the decision will be an emotional one.

Presumably people then also voted No the first time based on emotion and irrational considerations? For you see, it would seem unrealistic that they voted No based on an informed understanding, but now have forgotten the facts and thus are voting in a misinformed way.

It can't work both ways.

[redpath]

A substantial number of people will vote Yes to make sure Declan Ganley and his Libertas front and COIr do not claim their a No vote as a mandate for Christian fundmentalism and to deny the unelected elites who back them a sense of victory over the Irish nation.

[isocket]

You may or may not be right.
It's down to polling day now.
The first votes cast on the outer western Islands are almost certainly NO.
This may or maynot be the start of a Tsunami, I hope it is.
Ultimately this is a test of our backbone as a people.
Are we broken & finally bowed by the imperial projects that are now & in the past been reigned against us?
or
Are we - The Risen People?

Beware of the risen people,ye that have harried and held,ye that have bullied and bribed.

[Cincinnatus]

Presumably people then also voted No the first time based on emotion and irrational considerations? For you see, it would seem unrealistic that they voted No based on an informed understanding, but now have forgotten the facts and thus are voting in a misinformed way.

It can't work both ways.

Quite right. If the majority of this country had it's way they would put us back 100 years. We must have minority rule!!

[greengoose2]

Presumably people then also voted No the first time based on emotion and irrational considerations? For you see, it would seem unrealistic that they voted No based on an informed understanding, but now have forgotten the facts and thus are voting in a misinformed way.

It can't work both ways.

Sometimes it can be down to instinct. Instinct based on gross ineptitude and downrightbreaking of electioneering promises. We were promised wonders in the health area. We are now wondering...

New schools were promised along with smaller classes. Bert was telling us to buy houses and Cowen tells us that the economy was hit by a tsunami. A three years old one at that.

We have sleaze of all descriptions. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink! Fortunes won on horses, millions stored in mattresses or shoe boxes. Fingers, Seanie, Rody and co being rewarded for God al;one knows what. But so long as their asses are covered there will be no proof that a court would accept.

Now this is a sample of how politicians promise, forecast, predict and spin and along comes a tsunami of an excuse and it's all right then! Or is it.

[Malboury]

(The No side attempt to appeal to emotion too, of course, but it's not in the same league as the negative, manipulative crap we've been bombarded with from the media etc.
Also, the Yes side have claimed time and time again that a major reason for the No vote last time was the lack of straightforward facts available to the electorate. Is this their solution to that?)

I don't know if agree with that. I've passed a whole lot of libertas posters recently with pictures of crying children on them. They were a bit emotional; definitely not driven towards getting any facts across anyway.

[Catalpa]

My gut feeling is that the High water mark of the YES campaign has passed and their support is now dipping...

Declan Ganley's late intervention is something they had not factored in and has caught them on the hop.

I think they have shot their bolt but whether the No side - which it is clear now has the initiative - can carry the wind in their sails across the finishing line on Friday is an open question.

We will know soon enough.

Sure there are some who will vote from fear but the key question is whether that will include enough of those who voted NO last year or not to make a difference.

[He3]

Pride or Despair.

No, with pride.

[johnfás]

Sometimes it can be down to instinct. Instinct based on gross ineptitude and downrightbreaking of electioneering promises. We were promised wonders in the health area. We are now wondering...

New schools were promised along with smaller classes. Bert was telling us to buy houses and Cowen tells us that the economy was hit by a tsunami. A three years old one at that.

We have sleaze of all descriptions. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink! Fortunes won on horses, millions stored in mattresses or shoe boxes. Fingers, Seanie, Rody and co being rewarded for God al;one knows what. But so long as their asses are covered there will be no proof that a court would accept.

Now this is a sample of how politicians promise, forecast, predict and spin and along comes a tsunami of an excuse and it's all right then! Or is it.

I don't disagree. But my point is simply this - if proponents of the No side are now going to say that the electorate is voting based on fear and misinformation, they cannot then maintain that the initial No vote was based on good understanding. That simply does not make sense for the electorate cannot have forgotten their understanding in a year. It is of course quite possible that people voted on emotion in both referenda, but it cannot be the case that they did not the first time yet did this time.