Not if the ground has changed since. There's probably a guaranteed No vote of 40%. However, a lot of the Lisbon 1 No has since weakened (e.g. Labour and the Greens now actively in favour; many unions in favour;
FG actually campaigning). The No camp will already be struggling hard to hold onto the Lisbon 1 constituency. And it's not going to be easy with the likes of COIR and UKIP muddying the waters. And the (at least) couple of a percent Ganley secured last time round will finally disappear like snow off the ditch if he doesn't perform tonight. If he blows it, it's curtains for the No campaign.