EU Council voting changes in mathematical terms

[goosebump]

After listening to Robert Ballagh repeat yet again the lie about Ireland's voting weight on the Council being halved, here's the deal in mathematical terms:

Nice II (Current Position)

345 votes on the Council. Simple Majority requires 255 votes (74%).

Ireland has 7 votes out of total of 345

= 2.0289855%

Lisbon

System based on votes is scrapped.

New Double Majority System introduced, requiring both15 member states and enough states to represent 65% of EU population before decision of Council is passed

Ireland is 1 out of 27 states and has 4m of 500m EU population, representing percentages of 3.7037037% and 0.8% respectively.

The first part of this represents a gain in representation of 1.6747182%, while the second part represents a loss in representation of 1.2289855%, giving a net gain of .4457594%

[He3]

Eamonn Gallagher and John Temple Lang, two of Ireland's most respected EC insiders, opposed Lisbon in part because they saw it shift what they called the 'institutional weight' in favour of the big countries.

That is what is happening.

[flamez911]

After listening to Robert Ballagh repeat yet again the lie about Ireland's voting weight on the Council being halved, here's the deal in mathematical terms:

Nice II (Current Position)

345 votes on the Council. Simple Majority requires 255 votes (74%).

Ireland has 7 votes out of total of 345

= 0.020289855%

Lisbon

System based on votes is scrapped.

New Double Majority System introduced, requiring both15 member states and enough states to represent 65% of EU population before decision of Council is passed

Ireland is 1 out of 27 states and has 4m of 500m EU population, representing percentages of 0.037037037% and 0.012289855% respectively.

The first part of this represents a gain in representation of 0.016747182%, while the second part represents a loss in representation of 0.016747182%, giving a net gain of 0.004457594%

I think your percentages are wrong, otherwise the NO side would *definitely* be right- it's 2.03%, 3.7% and 1.23%, not 0.0203%, 0.037% and 0.0123%

[He3]

http://www.politics.ie/europe/71760-...-position.html

[eurosceptic]

the sleight of hand from the yesmen here is the failure to mention that the majority of states rule already exists under nice. The only change being made is the change in voting weights. So the no side are correct to say that our voting weight is halved and germany's is doubled.

[goosebump]

I think your percentages are wrong, otherwise the NO side would *definitely* be right- it's 2.03%, 3.7% and 1.23%, not 0.0203%, 0.037% and 0.0123%

My decimal points are wrong, yes. I've edited OP.

[goosebump]

the sleight of hand from the yesmen here is the failure to mention that the majority of states rule already exists under nice. The only change being made is the change in voting weights. So the no side are correct to say that our voting weight is halved and germany's is doubled.

I have mentioned the majority of states rule. Its in the OP.

That has nothing to do with our proportional influence in QMV matters.

[goosebump]

Eamonn Gallagher and John Temple Lang, two of Ireland's most respected EC insiders, opposed Lisbon in part because they saw it shift what they called the 'institutional weight' in favour of the big countries.

That is what is happening.

So in your world, opinion carries more weight than mathematical certainty?

[ivnryn]

I did sims on this last year before Lisbon 1. In terms of influence, it is break even.

However, our ability to block things that we don't like is greatly reduced.

Under Nice, we have 2% of the votes and 26% is needed to block.

Under Lisbon, it goes both ways

1 country 1 vote rule
Our representation is increased to 3.7%, but the threshold for passing is reduced to 74% to 55% (or sometimes 72%).

Population rule
Our representation is decreased to 0.9%, and the threshold for passing is dropped from 74% to 65%.

In both cases, the threshold for passing is dropped. This means that the EU will find it easier to pass stuff.

Also, the rule where we gain influence is the one where the threshold is dropped the most. So we gain influence in one vote, but at the same time it becomes easier to ignore us. For the other part, we lose more than 50% of our influence and that is the one where it would be harder to ignore us.

[goosebump]

I did sims on this last year before Lisbon 1. In terms of influence, it is break even.

However, our ability to block things that we don't like is greatly reduced.

Under Nice, we have 2% of the votes and 26% is needed to block.

Under Lisbon, it goes both ways

1 country 1 vote rule
Our representation is increased to 3.7%, but the threshold for passing is reduced to 74% to 55% (or sometimes 72%).

Population rule
Our representation is decreased to 0.9%, and the threshold for passing is dropped from 74% to 65%.

In both cases, the threshold for passing is dropped. This means that the EU will find it easier to pass stuff.

Also, the rule where we gain influence is the one where the threshold is dropped the most. So we gain influence in one vote, but at the same time it becomes easier to ignore us. For the other part, we lose more than 50% of our influence and that is the one where it would be harder to ignore us.

That's a completely separate issue, and even your analysis of that is flawed, as it presumes that our only interest in the Council involves blocking decisions, and that we'll never be in a situation where we want a decision to be made that the larger states are opposed to.

That its 'easier to ignore us' is exactly the same thing as its 'easier to ignore others'.

My basic contention that our voting weight is unchanged remains unchallenged.