Kildare GE runners & riders

[the agent]

With a great possibility of a GE this year or early next year, lets have a look at the possible Jockeys in the thoroughbred county.

Kildare North - 4 seats. current make up 2FF,1 Lab, 1FG

This is going to be a loss for FF. Fitzpatricks son lost his county seat and fitzpatrick has been very invisible since his election. Brady the poll topper is now a Junior minister. You would have to say she will hold her seat with a 25% vote for FF.

Stagg (Lab) will hold his seat easily. very strong labour vote in the north of the county. won 3 seats out of 6 in the celbridge LEA.

Durkan (FG) will be under pressure from his likely running mate Scully. Based in Naas won the first seat on the town council & the County. Is now seen as a winner. The FG vote was weak in Durkans home base with a loss of a county seat. If Scully can hoover up the votes south of the constituency he should win the only FG seat.

Murphy (Ind). well after the huge vote she got in the locals, she is heading back to the Dail.

so after the election I see it as 1FF, 1FG, 1Lab, 1Ind

Kildare South - 2FF, 1 Lab.

again another loss on the cards for FF. Hard to say which Sean would lose, no clear favourite, but one of them will lose.

FG - The locals provided FG with some good candidates for the GE. 2 candidate strategy of Heydon & O'Donnell would make sense, but they need spike Nolan to put power under pressure in Newbridge.

Lab - Wall = safe as houses. will he run or will his son mark who cleaned up in the locals.

I see it as 1FF, 1FG, 1Lab

whats your views?

[sandar]

dont know if stagg or jack wall are running but you would imagine there will be a labour seat in ecah anyway.........as for which FFer would lose their seat in south, geography will play its part, if spike were nominated and took votes off power that could push him out.......if o'donnell ran he might be crossing some of o fearaghils territory and so damage him........

[the agent]

How old is Stagg now? Is he in good fettle these days? Looked grey as a badger in the Dáil the other day, but otherwise grand.

Stagg is 63 as is Durkan. Fitzpatrick is 65 and brady 55. I think you could say Durkan and stagg will be carried out in a box rather then retire.

[smitchy2]

Would think FG have a chance of a 2nd seat in Kildare North..
FG led by scully gained 32% in naas. Clane was 30% and Celbridge 20%.
Say the 4th seat will lie on Staggs transfers.

[tompatrick]

I will update you with the CSP candidate as soon as they are confirmed

[radical or redundant]

In north kildare, i'd imagine Fitzpatrick and Durkan would be under pressure and Murphy and Scully likely to replace them although Durkan does have a good record of holding on.Scully should benefit though from Naas to himself.

In KS Labour won't run two, it would be pointless.Lab would have to double it's vote for a second seat. Plus the Wall camp will probably make sure Mark Wall is the only candidate. Heydon will def be on the ticket for FG not sure who else, either O'Donnell or Nolan. If Paddy Kennedy runs, Newbridge may be too crowded and FG may go for O'Donnell. This would prob see Heydon and Power elected. Would expext Heydon, who polled better than O'Donnell in the locals, to shade it and SOF to lose out. Although 3 years is a long time to be calling it and FF getting 2 seats is not unreasonable.

[Effin Effer!!!]

Kildare North should in theory be easy enough to call. The Fitzpatrick seat will be lost to either Scully or Murphy, I would lean towards Scully who would be better suited for transfers in a General Election scenario. All of the rest should be able to hold on.



Kildare South won't be so cut and dry for Fine Gael as many of you think. Neither of the Fianna Fail Sean's will be easily shifted. Labour to hold the seat no problem.

Fine Gael should run Heydon, but at convention anything can happen and Daly could end up on the ticket again, he hasn't lost the taste for it you know. The other candidate will be a toss up between Nolan or O'Donnell. Both will be aiming to knock out the weaker of the Fianna Fail T.D.'s Sean Power which will be a seriously big ask for any young first timer. Sean O'Fearghell will be safe given his vote the last time and the fact that he concerns himself more with work on the ground than in the Dail. The locals in Newbridge won't turf out Power so hastily either.

On other matters raised. I don't think Paddy Kennedy will run, if he does he'll quickly find out that a General Election is a completely different animal than the locals. Also the government will run it's full term because neither the backbenchers nor the Greens are going anywhere!

[sandar]

good analysis Effing Effer....thing to remember is that Power is not from Newbridge he just acts like he is. Nolan is from newbridge and well known in the same circles and among the same demagraphic as power.
I think FG should run Nolan, even if just as a spoiler to take out power.

[Effin Effer!!!]

good analysis Effing Effer....thing to remember is that Power is not from Newbridge he just acts like he is. Nolan is from newbridge and well known in the same circles and among the same demagraphic as power.
I think FG should run Nolan, even if just as a spoiler to take out power.

Nolan V's O'Donnell???


Nothing like a bit of internal blood letting to entertain the crowds. It will be interesting to see which of them the Fine Gael delegates choose, plus will O'Donnell's actions at the last convention be held against him next time?


Power

Perception is everything! Most Newbridge people see Sean Power as a Newbridge T.D. even if he is from Caragh, and in the words of the great Fr. Fintan Stack "that's all that matters!".

[Ballyfermot Man]

I for one do not think that Kildare is as cut and dried as some commentators predict.

Kildare North:
I doubt if Fitzpatrick will run again. Brady will be the FF standard bearer and will probably hold.

Emmet Staag will more than likely splutter on for another term. Might consider a sweeper candidate.

Durkan has for years scraped in and squatted on that FG seat without either giving the local organisation or a half decent successor a chance to groom. Poor local result in Celbridge really hampers his chances of reelection. Yes, Scully did well in the locals, but FG cannot be complacent about their seat in Ke nth.

Kildare South:

2 solid FF's hard to shift. Jack Wall should surely pass on the mantle to the son, as he's of pensionable age himself. FG have currently no seat. Easiest option is to select only one candidate. Yes they did very well in the locals in Kil Sth, but the GE is a different kettle of fish. I would favour Tony O' Donnell personally, but it remains to be said how well the potentials establish themselves in the area in the next 12 months.