Kildare GE runners & riders

[sandar]

Has he taken leave of his sences?

If Paddy runs in a General Election as an Independent he'll be letting himself in for a woeful ass-whooping!!!





A General Election is a seriously different animal to a Local Election!

And the next General Election will see a national polarisation of votes to the three main parties Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour and away from Independents, Greens, Sinn Fein etc.

Paddy is a sound man and a hard working local politician but in a General Election scenario he won't make much of a dent in Sean Power's vote. Neither will he have much of an impact in Rathangan as he wouldn't be seen as a serious contender. Either way his family are Fianna Fail in background, and most of what he does get will transfer back in that direction.

Many of the anti-Fianna Fail posters on here seem to be losing sight of the high regard that both of Kildare South's sitting Fianna Fail T.D.'s are held in, despite the recent tarnishing of the Fianna Fail brand.

I dont claim paddy would win..but he has the ability to get votes in his home estates in newbridge.....areas that would have voted ff heavily in the past....and rathangan people vote vote for their own first and the rest second....I think if paddy runs he will take a number of hundred votes....and they will in large parts come from the FF genepool

[the agent]

Who do you see as the weaker of the two FG possibilities?

If I was Durkan I would want Lawlor on the ticket, he is unknown in the Northern part of Kildare North as Scully as a GE campaign under his belt. Durkan will be 66 in 2012 and FG will should ask him to step down and let in one of the younger uns, FG will win a seat here no matter what.

[Effin Effer!!!]

I dont claim paddy would win..but he has the ability to get votes in his home estates in newbridge.....areas that would have voted ff heavily in the past....and rathangan people vote vote for their own first and the rest second....I think if paddy runs he will take a number of hundred votes....and they will in large parts come from the FF genepool

Exactly!

And thats where they'll transfer back to when Paddy's finished with them.

[sandar]

Exactly!

And thats where they'll transfer back to when Paddy's finished with them.

certainly the rathangan ones would...but would the newbridge ones? there are people in enwbridge who vote for power the man......its a vote to get a 'newbridge' man into the dail and done for that reason alone........Im not sure they are FF loyalists

[Nick Leeson]

So what do people know about the nominations / trends / movements for the North.
Presumably FF will run Brady + 1. Is FitzPatrick going to leave as he said given the dismal outing of little Fitz? If not him who? Our own dear Croppyboy (James Lawless) Have FF any chance of holding 2 on the national trends. Is there any chance they could lose both?
Who will Durkan back out of Naas Scully / Lawlor and which has the better chance? Is Durkan committed to continuing his efforts to avoid winning 2 FG seats at all costs?
Will Labour run McNamara with Stagg and have they any hope or interest in 2 seats? Will Eamonn G bring back his friend Catherine to the fold? Will Stagg be retired?
Will Catherine get in as an independent and back EG from there?
Comments & obs please

Lots of questions KittyKat.

FF
No foregone conclusion that Fitzpatrick won't run. I'm predicting a tough battle between him and Brady for 1 FF seat.

FG
Nobody knows yet but maybe a few. It has to be Durkan plus Scully for possible 2 seats. Scully cleaned up in Naas town in the locals and that'll be a bonus for a GE. Lawlor got a rural vote but a Naas rural vote which should be sypathetic to Scully as much as Durkan. But if Enda is booted out, a different FG leader may want Durkan not to run.

Lab
Stagg too old? Hmm, maybe he'd get a cabinet position if he ran one more time. Go out on a high. McNamara is too far from the constituency's Labour heartland for him to have much impact. FG have Naas sown up, Clane and out towards Offaly boarder is FF, so Lab only good in Celbridge. Stagg plus Byrne or McGinley or one of those guys? Verdict 1 Lab.

Catherine Murphy
Excellent chance given results in locals and geographic placement. I'll reckon she'll get the 4th seat.

Results:
1. Fitzpatrick/Brady
2. Durkan/Scully
3. Stagg
4. Murphy

[Effin Effer!!!]

Lots of questions KittyKat.

FF
No foregone conclusion that Fitzpatrick won't run. I'm predicting a tough battle between him and Brady for 1 FF seat.

FG
Nobody knows yet but maybe a few. It has to be Durkan plus Scully for possible 2 seats. Scully cleaned up in Naas town in the locals and that'll be a bonus for a GE. Lawlor got a rural vote but a Naas rural vote which should be sypathetic to Scully as much as Durkan. But if Enda is booted out, a different FG leader may want Durkan not to run.

Lab
Stagg too old? Hmm, maybe he'd get a cabinet position if he ran one more time. Go out on a high. McNamara is too far from the constituency's Labour heartland for him to have much impact. FG have Naas sown up, Clane and out towards Offaly boarder is FF, so Lab only good in Celbridge. Stagg plus Byrne or McGinley or one of those guys? Verdict 1 Lab.

Catherine Murphy
Excellent chance given results in locals and geographic placement. I'll reckon she'll get the 4th seat.

Results:
1. Fitzpatrick/Brady
2. Durkan/Scully
3. Stagg
4. Murphy

I don't!

The fourth seat will be fought over between the weaker candidates on the tickets of the three main parties.

[Nick Leeson]

I don't!

The fourth seat will be fought over between the weaker candidates on the tickets of the three main parties.

Why do you think Murphy won't feature?

[Effin Effer!!!]

Why do you think Murphy won't feature?

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that she'll be completely bet off the field. But can't see her taking a seat.

In times like the ones we're in now the electorate generally polarises to mainstream party's ie: Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour.

While smaller groups such as Sinn Fein, Greens, Independents etc. take a severe bashing.

[Nick Leeson]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that she'll be completely bet off the field. But can't see her taking a seat.

In times like the ones we're in now the electorate generally polarises to mainstream party's ie: Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour.

While smaller groups such as Sinn Fein, Greens, Independents etc. take a severe bashing.

Rule no.1 - all politics is local.

But I agree with your polarisation idea and would love to see it happen. Don't like too many independents, Greens, socialists and Shinners in the Dail.

[sandar]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that she'll be completely bet off the field. But can't see her taking a seat.

In times like the ones we're in now the electorate generally polarises to mainstream party's ie: Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour.

While smaller groups such as Sinn Fein, Greens, Independents etc. take a severe bashing.

in the 80s we had all sorts of lunatic fringes