FF had their official lauch last night in the Osprey.
Seemingly Noel Demspey was there.
To re-cap, the candidates are:
Naas LEA, KCC
1. James Lawless
2. Cllr. Willie Callaghan
Naas Town Council
1. Cllr. Paddy Behan
2. Eugene Duggan
3. Tiernach Cassidy
4. Cllr. Willie Callaghan
Who are the undeclared runners in the Naas LEA and Town Council Elections? It would be nice to know all the runners so that we can make informed decisions.
Naas TC Runners
in addition to FF FG & Labour runners the following is the info I have
Donal Corcoran who was a TC member is running on a GREYish ticket
A member of the Bracken family who is based in Jiggenstown is set to run as an Indo
Mary Glennon is likely to run but I know that a family memeber is seriously ill and has been for some time.
FF have been dropping leaftlets & James Lawless has been canvassing Naas
Labour have been knocking doors & dropping local leaflets in Naas, Johnstown & Kill
Reports suggest that McCarthy is doing well. Might be a dark horse especially if Mary Glennon does not run / has a limited campaign as they have been close on the TC for years.
FG have not been nearly as in evidence as might have been expected. A bit of a puzzle really.
So far nothing from Lawlor in Naas that I have seen. Scully PR seems to be ongoing & successful. Anyone else any comments / info?
I believe FG have split the terrority with Lawlor going rural and Scully staying in the town. I think that is a clever move. Other candidates will be falling over each other and lawlor will do serious damage to paddy macnamara (lab) who had kill and johnstown to himself last time, if glennon does not run it could see a change of cllrs for labour. FF will hold their seat with willie callaghan, jj power (green) will also struggle. I still say 2FG, 1FF, 1LAB and last one between ind & Green
In terms of seats
It is hard to see FF getting more than Callaghan in Naas. Lawless will one would expect be behind MacNamara in Sallins and has nowhere to get transfers. Rose Barrett (who outpolled Callaghan last time) was based in Ballymore & that block is gone from the area.
There is a tendency for Naas to vote very like some parts of South Dublin which went FF free at the locals in 2004
Scully is certain of a seat for FG
Given the polls & the budget there will be a Lab seat
For the Greens JJ must be in some difficulty. It was SF transfers that saved him last time. If he is not around to benefit then they will go to Lab & Ind. I see that his vote was 8% in 2004 which was actually down for the Greens from 11% + in 99! His by election performance was poor & he ran in the south for the last GE I reckon he is gone
The big unknown is the performance of Independents
IF Mary Glennon is not in a position to run an effective campaign then it is hard to see McCarthy (Lab) not being elected. She also comes from a traditional FG family so Scully may hurt her in 1st preference terms. The vote she will retain will be primarily Non FF & Naas
By the same token if the FG vote is up nationally and given that there is 6% PD vote available then the only obstacle to FG having 2 seats is poor vote management with Scully doing "TOO" well. I still have a bit of difficulty taking A Lawlor seriously given his total silence for 5 (arguably 9 1/2) years. It is worth noting that Sallins is now as large in voting terms as Kill
It is also possible that FG may actually have more that 2 Quotas but badly split
So now for a prediction that will probably embarrass me later but hey !!
FF 1 Fg 2 Lab 2
I would think that the literature sent around by the various Parties and individuals is meant to help us decide who to vote for. So far the stuff that I got is unimaginative and not really very informative. I wouldnt be inclined to decide who to vote for based on what has been pushed through my letter box.
Any views out there on the quality and information given in the political leaflets that you have got?
No one has put a serious political argument in anything I have seen. The worst or at least the one that was most vaccous was from one of the new FF candidates for Naas TC whose name escapes me (so it didn't work). The material from MacNamara has been non political such as a timetable for Buses & Trains and a canal walk guide. The timetable is useful & ties in with the NASRUG operation that he started.
No one is going for the issues that the local authorities have responsibility , specifically planning/ rezoning.
Maybe there is better to come but the limits kick in today (60 days out)
But does anyone read the bumph anyway? Has anyone ever changed their vote due to leaflet?
Did anyone get the James Lawless 4-pager? Candidate intro with sections on technology / transport/ environment / local area plans / public amenities. Issued about a month ago?
Last edited by croppyboy; 3rd April 2009 at 01:27 PM.
I do wonder whether anyone reads them. I would suggest maybe 5% return on a leaflet.
Dr. Liam Weeks of UCC has figures that suggest 200 leaflets = 1 vote...
Is sallins Kill a more significant lump of votes now, the poulation must be significantly larger than even at the last election, which will of course help Paddy Mac, but lots of the new houses are peope who are lilkelyo to be suffering lots now, so maybe wont be FF territory.
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